Numancia vs Guadalajara• Segunda División RFEF - Group 5, Spain

#41.3:0.01-0FT27/092.0:2.0#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.78BTNX3.45BTN24.75BVCMargin at best6.2%Books4Markets40Rating60 · 40Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 23 Sep 03:47 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	2.00	3.30	3.50	8.9%
1xBet	1.97	3.16	3.54	10.7%
Bet365	1.95	3.30	3.40	11.0%
Marathonbet	1.95	3.16	3.45	11.9%
Best of all books	2.00	3.30	3.54	8.6%
Average	1.97	3.23	3.47	10.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 4 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

NumanciaGuadalajara

Last 10#4Table position#121.86Points per game1.147Form pts · last 581.3Goals for · last 52.00.0Goals against · last 52.050Attack rating50100Defence rating070Form rating300H2H rating1000Goals model060Overall rating40

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 22 Oct 15:01 UTC

Numancia

4W 4D 2L · goals 9:5 · per match 0.9 for, 0.5 against

18 Oct	H	CF Talavera	0-0	D
11 Oct	A	Real Ávila	1-1	D
4 Oct	A	Getafe II	0-0	D
27 Sep	H	Guadalajara	1-0	W
19 Sep	A	SS Reyes	0-0	D
13 Sep	H	A Madrid III	2-0	W
6 Sep	A	Atlético Paso	2-0	W
22 Aug	H	Zaragoza	2-1	W
17 May	A	Poblense	1-2	L
10 May	H	Poblense	0-1	L

Guadalajara

3W 3D 4L · goals 17:15 · per match 1.7 for, 1.5 against

11 Oct	H	Getafe II	4-1	W
7 Oct	A	Real Madrid III	1-1	D
3 Oct	H	Gimnástica Segoviana	3-3	D
27 Sep	A	Numancia	0-1	L
13 Sep	H	RSD Alcalá	2-1	W
6 Sep	H	Salamanca UDS	2-3	L
18 Aug	A	Marchamalo	0-1	L
23 May	H	Real Madrid II	2-2	D
17 May	A	Athletic Club II	1-2	L
9 May	H	Arenteiro	2-0	W

Head to head

0Numancia wins

0draws

2Guadalajara wins

2 meetings · goals 0:3 · last 2: 0W 0D 2L for Numancia

7 Apr 2024Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Guadalajara1-0Numancia
26 Nov 2023Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5	Numancia0-2Guadalajara

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 tableSegunda Rfef: Group 5updated 22 Oct 15:02 UTC

In the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table, Numancia sit 4th with 13 points from 7 games, while Guadalajara are 12th with 8 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	7	4	2	1	16:9	+7	14
2	A Madrid III	7	4	2	1	10:7	+3	14
3	Real Valladolid II	7	4	1	2	14:6	+8	13
4	Numancia	7	3	4	0	6:1	+5	13
5	SS Reyes	7	4	1	2	11:7	+4	13
6	Salamanca UDS	7	4	1	2	11:8	+3	13
7	CF Talavera	7	3	3	1	9:6	+3	12
8	Gimnástica Segoviana	7	2	3	2	13:12	+1	9
9	Navalcarnero	7	2	3	2	10:10	0	9
10	Atlético Tordesillas	7	2	2	3	11:10	+1	8
11	RSD Alcalá	7	2	2	3	10:10	0	8
12	Guadalajara	7	2	2	3	12:13	-1	8
13	Real Ávila	7	2	1	4	7:11	-4	7
14	Atlético Paso	7	1	3	3	6:9	-3	6
15	Albacete II	7	1	3	3	9:21	-12	6
16	Real Madrid III	7	0	5	2	1:4	-3	5
17	Calvo Sotelo	7	1	2	4	3:10	-7	5
18	Getafe II	7	0	4	3	6:11	-5	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg152%1.74X27%3.37221%4.40

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.2% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.97 → 1.73 -12.2%X3.23 → 3.37 +4.3%23.47 → 4.43 +27.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.20	1.65	6.1%
1xBet	2.12	1.62	8.9%
Marathonbet	2.12	1.62	8.9%
Betano	2.07	1.60	10.8%
Best of all books	2.20	1.65	6.1%
Average	2.13	1.62	8.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.89	1.80	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.89	1.77	9.4%
Betano	1.90	1.72	10.8%
Best of all books	1.90	1.80	8.2%
Average	1.89	1.76	9.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Numancia 35%Draw 35%Guadalajara 30%

The statistical model rated Numancia at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Guadalajara at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.74 | 3.37 | 4.40, which imply roughly 57.5% for a Numancia win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table: Numancia are 4th (13 pts, 6-1 goals), Guadalajara 12th (8 pts, 12-13).

Over their last five matches, Numancia averaged 1.3 goals scored and 0 conceded per game; Guadalajara averaged 2 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Numancia or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.97	3.23	3.47

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.23	1.70	1.26

Draw no bet

1	2
1.44	2.52

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.89	1.76

1st half

1	X	2
2.62	2.01	4.22

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.73	7.45	2.50

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.06	6.80
1.5	1.36	2.70
2.5	2.13	1.62
3.5	3.70	1.20
4.5	6.80	1.05

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.06	6.15
1.25	1.21	3.58
1.75	1.44	2.43
2	1.59	2.10
2.25	1.87	1.79
2.75	2.43	1.44
3	3.08	1.28
3.25	3.42	1.23
3.75	4.79	1.12
4	6.65	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.92	1.31
-0.75	2.24	1.52
-0.5	1.98	1.78
-0.25	1.69	1.97
0	1.43	2.53
+0.25	1.31	2.92

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.90	1.02
-2	7.10	1.04
-1.75	4.49	1.13
-1.5	3.74	1.19
-1.25	3.28	1.25
+0.75	1.14	4.33
+1	1.04	6.75
+1.5	1.02	7.70

Next Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 matches

24 Oct	Numancia – Navalcarnero
24 Oct	RSD Alcalá – SS Reyes
24 Oct	Atlético Paso – Real Ávila

All Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 fixtures and the table

Latest Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 results

18 Oct	Numancia 0-0 CF Talavera
18 Oct	Salamanca UDS 1-1 Navalcarnero
18 Oct	RSD Alcalá 0-0 Real Madrid III
18 Oct	SS Reyes 2-1 Calvo Sotelo
18 Oct	Conquense 2-2 Atlético Paso
18 Oct	Atlético Tordesillas 3-0 Guadalajara