Mławianka Mława vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.• III Liga - Group 1, Poland

#153.0:3.43-2FT17/101.4:1.4#16

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.05B365X3.75B36522.841XBMargin at best10.7%Books4Markets39Rating56 · 45Exp. goals L54.6

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 06:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
BetVictor	2.10	3.75	2.88	9.0%
1xBet	2.05	3.72	2.84	10.9%
Marathonbet	2.03	3.72	2.77	12.2%
Bet365	2.05	3.75	2.70	12.5%
Best of all books	2.10	3.75	2.88	9.0%
Average	2.06	3.74	2.80	11.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Mławianka MławaPolonia Lidzbark Warm.

Last 10#15Table position#161.00Points per game0.926Form pts · last 573.0Goals for · last 51.43.4Goals against · last 51.468Attack rating3229Defence rating7146Form rating5480H2H rating2048Goals model5256Overall rating45

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 05:50 UTC

Mławianka Mława

2W 1D 7L · goals 21:32 · per match 2.1 for, 3.2 against

10 Oct	A	Olimpia Elbląg	1-2	L
3 Oct	H	Swit	2-4	L
25 Sep	A	Ząbkovia Ząbki	4-3	W
19 Sep	H	Troszyn	4-1	W
12 Sep	A	Jagiellonia II	4-7	L
6 Sep	H	ŁKS Łódź II	0-2	L
29 Aug	A	Wisła Płock II	3-5	L
22 Aug	A	Łomża	0-0	D
19 Aug	H	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	2-3	L
14 Aug	A	Weszlo	1-5	L

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

3W 3D 4L · goals 16:18 · per match 1.6 for, 1.8 against

10 Oct	H	Łomża	3-2	W
3 Oct	A	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	2-1	W
26 Sep	H	Weszlo	1-1	D
19 Sep	A	Pelikan Łowicz	0-1	L
12 Sep	H	Warta Sieradz	1-2	L
6 Sep	A	Wigry Suwałki	3-1	W
29 Aug	H	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	2-2	D
23 Aug	A	Widzew II	1-4	L
19 Aug	H	Olimpia Zambrów	2-3	L
15 Aug	H	Wisła Płock II	1-1	D

Head to head

1Mławianka Mława wins

1draws

0Polonia Lidzbark Warm. wins

2 meetings · goals 5:3 · last 2: 1W 1D 0L for Mławianka Mława

22 Mar 2025III Liga - Group 1	III Liga - Group 1	Mławianka Mława1-1Polonia Lidzbark Warm.
25 Aug 2024III Liga - Group 1	III Liga - Group 1	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.2-4Mławianka Mława

III Liga - Group 1 tableGroup Iupdated 20 Oct 19:01 UTC

In the III Liga - Group 1 table, Mławianka Mława sit 15th with 13 points from 13 games, while Polonia Lidzbark Warm. are 16th with 12 points from 13.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Weszlo	13	10	2	1	29:12	+17	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	13	8	4	1	26:12	+14	28
3	Swit	13	7	2	4	25:20	+5	23
4	Pelikan Łowicz	13	7	2	4	22:18	+4	23
5	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	13	6	3	4	30:25	+5	21
6	Wisła Płock II	13	6	3	4	25:21	+4	21
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	13	6	3	4	25:21	+4	21
8	Olimpia Zambrów	13	6	2	5	28:27	+1	20
9	Warta Sieradz	12	5	3	4	21:20	+1	18
10	Olimpia Elbląg	13	5	2	6	19:22	-3	17
11	Jagiellonia II	13	4	4	5	25:26	-1	16
12	Widzew II	12	4	3	5	22:21	+1	15
13	ŁKS Łódź II	13	4	3	6	24:25	-1	15
14	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	13	4	2	7	22:27	-5	14
15	Mławianka Mława	13	4	1	8	26:36	-10	13
16	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	13	3	3	7	21:27	-6	12
17	Troszyn	13	2	5	6	15:27	-12	11
18	Łomża	13	0	3	10	12:30	-18	3

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg144%2.06X24%3.74232%2.80

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 10.7% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.50	2.50	6.7%
BetVictor	1.40	2.75	7.8%
1xBet	1.40	2.56	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.40	2.56	10.5%
Best of all books	1.50	2.75	3.0%
Average	1.42	2.59	8.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
BetVictor	1.36	2.88	8.3%
1xBet	1.39	2.69	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.39	2.63	10.0%
Best of all books	1.39	2.88	6.7%
Average	1.38	2.73	9.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Mławianka Mława 45%Draw 45%Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 10%

The statistical model rated Mławianka Mława at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Polonia Lidzbark Warm. at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.06 | 3.74 | 2.80, which imply roughly 48.5% for a Mławianka Mława win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the III Liga - Group 1 table: Mławianka Mława are 15th (13 pts, 26-36 goals), Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 16th (12 pts, 21-27).

Over their last five matches, Mławianka Mława averaged 3 goals scored and 3.4 conceded per game; Polonia Lidzbark Warm. averaged 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Mławianka Mława or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.06	3.74	2.80

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.33	1.61	1.18

Draw no bet

1	2
1.62	2.20

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.38	2.73

1st half

1	X	2
2.51	2.43	3.23

2nd half

1	X	2
2.35	2.77	3.03

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.15	13.0	25.0
HT X	5.80	6.95	7.35
HT 2	21.5	14.5	4.37

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.73	21.0	2.01

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.12	5.30
2.5	1.42	2.59
3.5	2.07	1.65
4.5	3.45	1.24
5.5	6.43	1.09

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2	1.14	4.45
2.25	1.27	3.14
2.75	1.51	2.31
3	1.64	2.05
3.25	1.85	1.81
3.75	2.32	1.49
4	2.83	1.33
4.25	3.14	1.27
5	5.55	1.08

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.92	1.31
-0.75	2.36	1.48
-0.5	2.07	1.65
-0.25	1.84	1.85
0	1.59	2.16
+0.25	1.45	2.45

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.10	1.04
-2	6.40	1.05
-1.5	3.58	1.21
-1.25	3.28	1.25
+0.75	1.24	3.34
+1	1.12	4.65
+1.5	1.09	5.40

Latest III Liga - Group 1 results

21 Oct	Widzew II 0-1 Warta Sieradz
18 Oct	Weszlo 3-2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
18 Oct	Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1-1 Widzew II
18 Oct	Jagiellonia II 1-3 Swit
17 Oct	Warta Sieradz 2-1 Wisła Płock II
17 Oct	Pelikan Łowicz 1-4 Wigry Suwałki