Ards vs Moyola Park• Championship, Northern-Ireland

#110.8:1.419:45Today1.2:2.0#13

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.87BTNX3.88PIN23.65DAFMargin at best6.6%Books9Markets48Rating59 · 42Exp. goals L52.7

Price board · 1X2captured 13 Nov 18:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.86	3.85	3.65	7.1%
Betano	1.87	3.85	3.40	8.9%
BetVictor	1.83	3.70	3.60	9.4%
Pinnacle	1.88	3.95	3.13	10.5%
1xBet	1.76	3.76	3.64	10.9%
Betfair	1.83	3.70	3.40	11.1%
Bet365	1.80	3.60	3.60	11.1%
Marathonbet	1.74	3.76	3.55	12.2%
William Hill	1.83	3.50	3.40	12.6%
Best of all books	1.88	3.95	3.65	5.9%
Average	1.82	3.74	3.49	10.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ArdsMoyola Park

Last 10#11Table position#131.13Points per game1.073Form pts · last 570.8Goals for · last 51.21.4Goals against · last 52.040Attack rating6059Defence rating4156Form rating4480H2H rating2041Goals model5959Overall rating42

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 12 Nov 16:30 UTC

Ards

2W 5D 3L · goals 6:9 · per match 0.6 for, 0.9 against

7 Nov	A	H&W Welders	0-3	L
31 Oct	H	Newry City AFC	1-1	D
24 Oct	A	Armagh City	1-1	D
20 Oct	A	Rathfriland	0-0	D
16 Oct	H	Institute	0-2	L
9 Oct	A	Newington Youth	2-0	W
3 Oct	A	Ballinamallard United	1-1	D
26 Sep	H	Strabane Athletic	0-1	L
19 Sep	A	Moyola Park	0-0	D
12 Sep	H	Rathfriland	1-0	W

Moyola Park

3W 2D 5L · goals 14:21 · per match 1.4 for, 2.1 against

6 Nov	H	Newry City AFC	1-2	L
31 Oct	A	Institute	1-1	D
20 Oct	A	Dundela	4-1	W
16 Oct	H	Newington Youth	2-3	L
10 Oct	A	Loughgall	2-1	W
3 Oct	H	Glenavon FC	0-3	L
26 Sep	A	Queen's University	1-0	W
19 Sep	H	Ards	0-0	D
12 Sep	A	Warrenpoint Town	2-6	L
5 Sep	H	H&W Welders	1-4	L

Head to head

1Ards wins

1draws

0Moyola Park wins

2 meetings · goals 3:1 · last 2: 1W 1D 0L for Ards

19 Sep 2026Championship	Championship	Moyola Park0-0Ards
1 Feb 2025Irish Cup	Irish Cup	Moyola Park1-3Ards

Championship tableChampionship 1updated 13 Nov 16:40 UTC

In the Championship table, Ards sit 11th with 17 points from 15 games, while Moyola Park are 13th with 15 points from 14.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Annagh United	15	10	4	1	37:16	+21	34
2	Glenavon FC	14	9	3	2	36:16	+20	30
3	Newington Youth	14	9	2	3	35:22	+13	29
4	Queen's University	15	7	2	6	28:19	+9	23
5	Newry City AFC	15	6	5	4	23:24	-1	23
6	Institute	14	6	3	5	23:20	+3	21
7	Ballinamallard United	15	6	3	6	20:20	0	21
8	Loughgall	15	5	5	5	21:26	-5	20
9	H&W Welders	14	6	1	7	22:22	0	19
10	Warrenpoint Town	13	5	3	5	22:21	+1	18
11	Ards	15	4	5	6	16:20	-4	17
12	Rathfriland	14	5	1	8	15:25	-10	16
13	Moyola Park	14	4	3	7	16:27	-11	15
14	Dundela	13	2	5	6	19:27	-8	11
15	Strabane Athletic	15	2	5	8	13:25	-12	11
16	Armagh City	15	1	6	8	12:28	-16	9

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg150%1.82X24%3.73226%3.48

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.78 → 1.82 +2.2%X3.70 → 3.73 +0.8%23.72 → 3.48 -6.5%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.60	2.30	6.0%
Pinnacle	1.64	2.14	7.7%
BetVictor	1.60	2.20	8.0%
Betano	1.60	2.15	9.0%
1xBet	1.56	2.15	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.56	2.15	10.6%
Best of all books	1.64	2.30	4.5%
Average	1.59	2.18	8.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.57	2.25	8.1%
BetVictor	1.53	2.30	8.8%
Betano	1.57	2.20	9.1%
William Hill	1.57	2.20	9.1%
1xBet	1.54	2.26	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.54	2.22	10.0%
Best of all books	1.57	2.30	7.2%
Average	1.55	2.24	9.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Ards 45%Draw 45%Moyola Park 10%

The statistical model rates Ards at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Moyola Park at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.82 | 3.73 | 3.48, which imply roughly 54.9% for a Ards win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Championship table: Ards are 11th (17 pts, 16-20 goals), Moyola Park 13th (15 pts, 16-27).

Over their last five matches, Ards averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Moyola Park averaged 1.2 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Ards or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.82	3.74	3.49

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.23	1.85	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
1.41	2.68

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.55	2.24

1st half

1	X	2
2.35	2.32	3.86

2nd half

1	X	2
2.14	2.66	3.64

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.75	14.7	31.3
HT X	5.15	6.37	8.77
HT 2	19.7	14.7	5.80

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.60	16.3	2.32

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	13.9
1.5	1.18	4.28
2.5	1.59	2.18
3.5	2.48	1.46
4.5	4.33	1.16
5.5	7.47	1.07
6.5	10.5	1.02
7.5	17.0	–

11 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	8.50
1.75	1.20	4.00
2	1.24	3.42
2.25	1.41	2.56
2.75	1.75	1.93
3	1.97	1.72
3.25	2.25	1.53
3.75	2.92	1.31
4	3.80	1.19
4.25	4.15	1.16
5	8.10	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	2.76	1.37
-1	2.44	1.48
-0.75	2.01	1.70
-0.5	1.83	1.90
-0.25	1.60	2.17
0	1.40	2.68

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	6.23	1.08
-2.25	5.58	1.13
-2	5.42	1.11
-1.75	3.83	1.21
-1.5	3.05	1.31
+0.25	1.32	3.05
+0.5	1.26	3.70
+0.75	1.18	4.65
+1	1.06	7.00
+1.5	1.04	8.07

Latest Championship results

7 Nov	Glenavon FC 2-0 Institute
7 Nov	Armagh City 0-6 Newington Youth
7 Nov	Dundela 0-3 Loughgall
7 Nov	H&W Welders 3-0 Ards
6 Nov	Strabane Athletic 0-1 Annagh United
6 Nov	Moyola Park 1-2 Newry City AFC