Exeter City vs Crewe• League Two, England

#160.4:0.21-0LiveToday · St James Park, Exeter1.8:1.0#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.55DAFX3.40B36523.02PINMargin at best1.7%Books10Markets79Rating58 · 42Exp. goals L51.7

Price board · 1X2captured 20 Oct 12:28 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.50	3.17	3.02	4.7%
Dafabet	2.55	3.25	2.85	5.1%
Betfair	2.50	3.30	2.80	6.0%
BetVictor	2.45	3.25	2.88	6.3%
Betano	2.45	3.20	2.87	6.9%
Bet365	2.35	3.40	2.80	7.7%
1xBet	2.50	3.04	2.81	8.5%
Marathonbet	2.50	3.04	2.81	8.5%
William Hill	2.40	3.00	2.90	9.5%
SBO	2.41	3.00	2.61	13.1%
Best of all books	2.55	3.40	3.02	1.7%
Average	2.46	3.16	2.83	7.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Exeter CityCrewe

Last 10#16Table position#31.18Points per game1.918Form pts · last 5110.4Goals for · last 51.80.2Goals against · last 51.018Attack rating8283Defence rating1742Form rating5885H2H rating1557Goals model4358Overall rating42

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 20 Oct 17:31 UTC

Exeter City

3W 5D 2L · goals 8:6 · per match 0.8 for, 0.6 against

17 Oct	A	Colchester	0-0	D
10 Oct	A	Shrewsbury	1-0	W
6 Oct	H	Oxford United	2-2	D
3 Oct	H	Rotherham	1-0	W
26 Sep	A	Bristol Rovers	0-1	L
22 Sep	A	Cheltenham	2-2	D
19 Sep	H	Tranmere	0-0	D
12 Sep	A	Port Vale	0-1	L
8 Sep	H	Tottenham Hotspur U21	2-0	W
5 Sep	H	Walsall	0-0	D

Crewe

4W 6D 0L · goals 19:12 · per match 1.9 for, 1.2 against

17 Oct	H	Rochdale	3-2	W
10 Oct	A	Swindon Town	1-0	W
6 Oct	A	Blackpool	2-2	D
3 Oct	H	Bristol Rovers	3-1	W
26 Sep	A	Rotherham	1-1	D
22 Sep	H	Aston Villa U21	4-1	W
19 Sep	H	Shrewsbury	1-1	D
12 Sep	A	Colchester	1-1	D
5 Sep	H	York	1-1	D
1 Sep	H	Walsall	2-2	D

Head to head

5Exeter City wins

2draws

1Crewe wins

8 meetings · goals 14:6 · last 8: 5W 2D 1L for Exeter City

3 Mar 2020League Two	League Two	Exeter City1-1Crewe
5 Oct 2019League Two	League Two	Crewe1-1Exeter City
23 Feb 2019League Two	League Two	Crewe1-2Exeter City
15 Dec 2018League Two	League Two	Exeter City1-0Crewe
20 Feb 2018League Two	League Two	Crewe1-2Exeter City
16 Sep 2017League Two	League Two	Exeter City3-0Crewe
4 Feb 2017League Two	League Two	Exeter City4-0Crewe
10 Sep 2016League Two	League Two	Crewe2-0Exeter City

League Two tableLeague Twoupdated 20 Oct 18:10 UTC

In the League Two table, Exeter City sit 16th with 13 points from 11 games, while Crewe are 3rd with 21 points from 11.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	11	7	1	3	17:11	+6	22
2	Barnet	9	6	3	0	22:12	+10	21
3	Crewe	11	5	6	0	15:9	+6	21
4	York	10	4	4	2	18:12	+6	16
5	Walsall	10	3	7	0	13:7	+6	16
6	Gillingham	11	4	4	3	16:13	+3	16
7	Chesterfield	11	4	3	4	17:15	+2	15
8	Cheltenham	11	4	3	4	17:20	-3	15
9	Bristol Rovers	11	5	0	6	15:18	-3	15
10	Accrington ST	11	3	5	3	16:15	+1	14
11	Newport County	11	3	5	3	14:13	+1	14
12	Fleetwood Town	11	3	5	3	12:11	+1	14
13	Rochdale	11	4	2	5	13:15	-2	14
14	Shrewsbury	11	4	2	5	10:15	-5	14
15	Grimsby	11	3	4	4	13:13	0	13
16	Exeter City	11	3	4	4	6:6	0	13
17	Tranmere	11	2	6	3	14:15	-1	12
18	Swindon Town	11	3	3	5	10:15	-5	12
19	Oldham	10	3	2	5	13:14	-1	11
20	Colchester	10	2	5	3	10:13	-3	11
21	Port Vale	9	3	2	4	5:9	-4	11
22	Northampton	9	2	4	3	6:7	-1	10
23	Rotherham	11	2	4	5	12:18	-6	10
24	Crawley Town	9	1	2	6	9:17	-8	5

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg138%2.45X30%3.15233%2.86

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.39 → 2.46 +2.9%X3.25 → 3.17 -2.5%22.65 → 2.84 +7.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.12	1.74	4.6%
SBO	2.19	1.68	5.2%
Betfair	2.10	1.73	5.4%
Betano	2.10	1.72	5.8%
Bet365	2.08	1.73	5.9%
1xBet	2.09	1.68	7.4%
Marathonbet	2.09	1.68	7.4%
BetVictor	2.01	1.69	8.9%
Best of all books	2.19	1.74	3.1%
Average	2.10	1.71	6.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.87	1.90	6.1%
William Hill	1.83	1.91	7.0%
BetVictor	1.78	1.93	8.0%
1xBet	1.80	1.90	8.2%
Betano	1.80	1.90	8.2%
Marathonbet	1.80	1.88	8.7%
Bet365	1.83	1.83	9.3%
Best of all books	1.87	1.93	5.3%
Average	1.82	1.89	7.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Exeter City 45%Draw 45%Crewe 10%

The statistical model rates Exeter City at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Crewe at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.45 | 3.15 | 2.86, which imply roughly 40.8% for a Exeter City win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the League Two table: Exeter City are 16th (13 pts, 6-6 goals), Crewe 3rd (21 pts, 15-9).

Over their last five matches, Exeter City averaged 0.4 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game; Crewe averaged 1.8 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Exeter City or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Confirmed Lineups

Exeter City

4-2-3-1

Coach: M. Taylor

Goalkeeper

1J. Bycroft

Defence

2L. Samuel
6J. Taylor
5J. Fitzwater
3L. Woodhouse

Midfield

31J. Doyle-Hayes
16C. Cummins
25A. Scully
8T. Perry
20George Birch

Attack

19S. Cox

Substitutes (7)

23Ethan Sutherland
12R. Cole
10J. Gordon
24V. Harper
40E. James
14H. Kite
22Frankie Phillips

Crewe

4-2-3-1

Coach: Lee Bell

Goalkeeper

1T. Booth

Defence

2L. Billington
6L. Offord
12J. Stephenson
4Kyle Ure

Midfield

19O. Lunt
10J. White
11J. Tabiner
17M. Holíček
14J. Gibson

Attack

9J. March

Substitutes (7)

3R. Hutchinson
30Stan Dancey
20Calum Agius
13I. Lawlor
23C. McNeill
32L. Moore
29A. Thibaut

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.46	3.17	2.84

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.40	1.49	1.32

Draw no bet

1	2
1.77	1.98

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.82	1.89

1st half

1	X	2
3.10	2.04	3.42

2nd half

1	X	2
2.81	2.31	3.09

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.08	14.1	32.8
HT X	5.78	4.62	6.36
HT 2	30.5	14.2	4.56

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.96	8.55	2.08

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	8.45
1.5	1.33	3.06
2.5	2.10	1.71
3.5	3.68	1.24
4.5	7.53	1.07
5.5	15.3	1.02
6.5	29.2	1.01

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.03	7.40
1	1.05	6.65
1.25	1.18	3.92
1.75	1.41	2.66
2	1.55	2.29
2.25	1.82	1.92
2.75	2.37	1.51
3	2.83	1.38
3.25	3.16	1.28
3.75	4.60	1.13
4	6.60	1.05
4.25	7.10	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.96	1.35
-0.5	2.41	1.54
-0.25	2.12	1.67
0	1.76	2.02
+0.25	1.52	2.38
+0.5	1.41	2.81

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.95	1.04
-2	9.15	1.02
-1.75	6.97	1.06
-1.5	5.16	1.13
-1.25	4.68	1.14
-1	4.08	1.20
+0.75	1.26	3.48
+1	1.13	5.13
+1.25	1.10	5.53
+1.5	1.09	6.03
+1.75	1.02	8.30
+2.5	1.02	12.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.12	4.45
7.5	1.30	3.15
8.5	1.56	2.29
9.5	1.94	1.81
10.5	2.43	1.50
11.5	3.45	1.25
12.5	5.46	1.07
13.5	7.28	1.01

25 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.01	7.24
6.25	1.07	5.44
6.75	1.14	4.23
7	1.16	4.00
7.25	1.24	3.33
7.75	1.36	2.75
8	1.40	2.72
8.25	1.52	2.33
8.75	1.70	2.03
9	1.79	1.96
9.25	1.91	1.80
9.75	2.16	1.61
10	2.34	1.52
10.25	2.49	1.45
10.75	2.91	1.32
11	2.91	1.36
11.25	3.49	1.22
11.75	4.21	1.14
12	5.05	1.09
12.25	5.26	1.08
12.75	5.58	1.06
13	6.92	1.02
13.25	7.06	1.02
13.75	5.81	1.05
14	7.17	1.01

Latest League Two results

17 Oct	Colchester 0-0 Exeter City
17 Oct	Crewe 3-2 Rochdale
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17 Oct	Newport County 1-1 York
17 Oct	Oldham 4-1 Cheltenham