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Millwall vs Derby• Championship, England

#121.2:1.44-1FT31/10 · The Den, London0.8:1.6#23

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.70BTNX4.14PIN25.41PINMargin at best1.5%Books10Markets97Rating66 · 34Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 31 Oct 09:42 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano1.704.005.402.3%
Pinnacle1.654.145.413.2%
Dafabet1.684.005.203.8%
Betfair1.654.005.005.6%
Bet3651.623.905.256.4%
1xBet1.643.944.896.8%
Marathonbet1.623.944.957.3%
BetVictor1.623.905.007.4%
William Hill1.653.804.807.8%
SBO1.603.454.3514.5%
Best of all books1.704.145.411.5%
Average1.643.915.036.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MillwallDerby
Last 10#12Table position#231.38Points per game0.547Form pts · last 521.2Goals for · last 50.81.4Goals against · last 51.660Attack rating4053Defence rating4763Form rating3885H2H rating1567Goals model3366Overall rating34

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 31 Oct 18:02 UTC

Millwall

3W 3D 4L · goals 17:14 · per match 1.7 for, 1.4 against

31 OctHDerby4-1W
24 OctAPortsmouth1-2L
17 OctHLincoln2-2D
13 OctHSwansea0-1L
10 OctAPreston1-0W
19 SepHWest Ham2-2D
15 SepAMiddlesbrough2-2D
12 SepABlackburn1-3L
8 SepHNewcastle0-1L
5 SepHBolton4-0W

Derby

1W 3D 6L · goals 8:18 · per match 0.8 for, 1.8 against

31 OctAMillwall1-4L
24 OctASheffield Utd1-1D
17 OctHStoke City0-1L
14 OctAQPR1-4L
10 OctHWrexham1-1D
19 SepABurnley1-1D
12 SepHBirmingham1-2L
9 SepHWest Brom0-1L
5 SepAWest Ham0-3L
1 SepAPortsmouth2-0W

Head to head

9Millwall wins
7draws
6Derby wins

22 meetings · goals 21:25 · last 10: 5W 3D 2L for Millwall

10 Mar 2026ChampionshipChampionshipMillwall1-0Derby
10 Dec 2025ChampionshipChampionshipDerby1-1Millwall
22 Feb 2025ChampionshipChampionshipDerby0-1Millwall
19 Oct 2024ChampionshipChampionshipMillwall1-1Derby
23 Feb 2022ChampionshipChampionshipDerby1-2Millwall
6 Nov 2021ChampionshipChampionshipMillwall1-1Derby
13 Mar 2021ChampionshipChampionshipDerby0-1Millwall
5 Dec 2020ChampionshipChampionshipMillwall0-1Derby
20 Jun 2020ChampionshipChampionshipMillwall2-3Derby
14 Dec 2019ChampionshipChampionshipDerby0-1Millwall

Championship tableChampionshipupdated 2 Nov 19:01 UTC

In the Championship table, Millwall sit 12th with 18 points from 13 games, while Derby are 23rd with 7 points from 13.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Middlesbrough1384130:17+1328
2Swansea1382320:13+726
3Wolves1373323:16+724
4West Brom1373319:14+524
5Southampton1383228:13+1523
6Birmingham1365223:13+1023
7Stoke City1372420:16+423
8West Ham1364333:18+1522
9QPR1355321:16+520
10Sheffield Utd1354417:15+219
11Portsmouth1354416:15+119
12Millwall1353523:21+218
13Blackburn1353519:20-118
14Bristol City1353515:17-218
15Norwich1350823:24-115
16Lincoln1343614:23-915
17Cardiff1335519:20-114
18Wrexham1335515:19-414
19Bolton1342718:26-814
20Charlton1335511:21-1014
21Watford1332812:23-1111
22Burnley1316617:25-89
23Derby1314811:25-147
24Preston13121010:27-175

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg157%1.64X24%3.90219%5.01

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

28 Oct 00:0131 Oct 12:101 1.64X 3.912 5.03
11.69 → 1.64 -3.0%X3.75 → 3.91 +4.3%24.65 → 5.03 +8.2%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.832.063.2%
Betano1.852.004.1%
SBO1.841.984.9%
Bet3651.802.005.6%
Betfair1.802.005.6%
1xBet1.781.976.9%
Marathonbet1.781.976.9%
BetVictor1.761.928.9%
Best of all books1.852.062.6%
Average1.801.995.7%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.802.005.6%
Betano1.821.936.8%
William Hill1.732.007.8%
Bet3651.801.917.9%
1xBet1.781.938.0%
BetVictor1.781.938.0%
Marathonbet1.781.908.8%
Best of all books1.822.004.9%
Average1.781.947.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Millwall 45%Draw 45%Derby 10%

The statistical model rated Millwall at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Derby at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.64 | 3.90 | 5.01, which imply roughly 61% for a Millwall win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Championship table: Millwall are 12th (18 pts, 23-21 goals), Derby 23rd (7 pts, 11-25).

Over their last five matches, Millwall averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Derby averaged 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Millwall or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Millwall

4-2-3-1

Coach: A. Neil

Goalkeeper

  • 15M. Crocombe

Defence

  • 4T. Crama
  • 6C. Taylor
  • 5J. Cooper
  • 3Zak Norton Sturge

Midfield

  • 14Jenson Metcalfe
  • 49D. Mazou-Sacko
  • 10C. Neghli
  • 25L. Cundle
  • 22K. Lisbie

Attack

  • 13L. Dykes
Substitutes (9)
  • 17M. Sykes
  • 41G. Evans
  • 19J. Coburn
  • 12E. Baggott
  • 45A. Doughty
  • 9M. Ivanović
  • 16D. Kelly
  • 11R. Esse
  • 18R. Leonard

Derby

4-2-3-1

Coach: J. Eustace

Goalkeeper

  • 1J. Widell Zetterström

Defence

  • 22M. Johnston
  • 24R. Nyambe
  • 14J. Robinson
  • 26R. Hedges

Midfield

  • 8B. Clark
  • 4D. Ozoh
  • 19H. Meister
  • 11S. Szmodics
  • 10R. Brewster

Attack

  • 9C. Morris
Substitutes (9)
  • 33C. Blackett-Taylor
  • 25S. Duffy
  • 29O. Fraulo
  • 16M. Fuseini
  • 20A. Mowatt
  • 15L. Salvesen
  • 31J. Vickers
  • 13F. Bilbija
  • 43I. Gordon

Match Statistics

MillwallDerby
4.16Expected Goals1.26
411Passes accurate294
18Shots insidebox8
4Shots outsidebox5
2Blocked Shots3
8Free Kicks9
9Shots on Goal4
3Goalkeeper Saves5
11Shots off Goal6
1Offsides1
502Total passes399
22Total Shots13
3Yellow Cards2
4Corner Kicks5
9Fouls9
0Red Cards0
56%Ball Possession44%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.643.915.03

Double chance

1XX212
1.162.181.23

Draw no bet

12
1.253.67

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.781.94

1st half

1X2
2.182.275.08

2nd half

1X2
1.972.614.66

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 12.4915.243.2
HT X4.445.8810.3
HT 221.615.58.41

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.5312.02.73

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0310.4
1.51.243.74
2.51.801.99
3.52.961.37
4.55.621.12
5.510.51.04
6.520.31.01
7.550.5–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.018.85
11.018.60
1.251.134.69
1.751.293.13
21.382.89
2.251.582.28
2.752.001.75
32.341.55
3.252.591.44
3.753.331.25
44.501.13
4.254.801.11
58.901.01

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.52.711.42
-1.252.381.52
-12.101.71
-0.751.791.97
-0.51.632.28
-0.251.412.70
11 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.510.01.03
-2.756.531.07
-2.55.231.13
-2.254.731.14
-24.381.16
-1.753.281.29
01.233.75
+0.251.184.29
+0.51.154.95
+0.751.086.17
+1.51.029.57

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
31.253.62
3.51.502.48
41.742.08
4.52.031.73
52.671.43
5.52.871.39

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.0213.6
6.51.058.25
7.51.105.53
8.51.233.62
9.51.452.57
10.51.761.98
11.52.221.60
12.52.881.35
13.53.901.19
14.55.511.10
15.57.411.05
16.59.251.04
24 more lines
LineOverUnder
7.751.085.18
81.094.96
8.251.164.05
8.751.243.32
91.273.15
9.251.362.77
9.751.492.38
101.592.27
10.251.662.08
10.751.841.86
111.981.80
11.252.061.68
11.752.331.52
122.541.43
12.252.681.38
12.753.111.28
133.541.21
13.253.701.19
13.754.421.12
145.251.08
14.255.441.07
14.755.461.07
156.631.03
15.256.831.02

Next Championship matches

3 NovQPR – Burnley
3 NovBlackburn – Stoke City
3 NovDerby – Norwich
3 NovPortsmouth – Swansea
3 NovPreston – Sheffield Utd
3 NovWatford – Lincoln

All Championship fixtures and the table

Latest Championship results

31 OctBurnley 0-0 Portsmouth
31 OctWest Ham 1-3 West Brom
31 OctMiddlesbrough 3-0 Charlton
31 OctWolves 3-0 Cardiff
31 OctSwansea 4-0 Blackburn
31 OctSouthampton 4-1 QPR