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Derby vs Stoke City• Championship, England

#230.8:1.80-1FT17/10 · Pride Park Stadium, Derby1.8:1.4#6

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.95DAFX3.48PIN22.45B365Margin at best3.5%Books6Markets85Rating39 · 61Exp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 10:01 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle3.013.502.413.3%
Bet3652.903.402.356.4%
BetVictor2.903.302.386.8%
1xBet2.813.362.407.0%
Marathonbet2.803.362.387.5%
William Hill2.903.302.308.3%
Best of all books3.013.502.413.3%
Average2.893.372.376.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

DerbyStoke City
Last 10#23Table position#60.55Points per game1.732Form pts · last 5100.8Goals for · last 51.81.8Goals against · last 51.431Attack rating6944Defence rating5617Form rating8350H2H rating5034Goals model6639Overall rating61

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 05:20 UTC

Derby

1W 3D 6L · goals 9:19 · per match 0.9 for, 1.9 against

14 OctAQPR1-4L
10 OctHWrexham1-1D
19 SepABurnley1-1D
12 SepHBirmingham1-2L
9 SepHWest Brom0-1L
5 SepAWest Ham0-3L
1 SepAPortsmouth2-0W
29 AugHSwansea0-3L
22 AugHCardiff2-2D
15 AugACharlton1-2L

Stoke City

5W 2D 3L · goals 17:15 · per match 1.7 for, 1.5 against

13 OctHMiddlesbrough2-3L
10 OctABolton2-1W
19 SepHSheffield Utd2-1W
12 SepAWatford2-1W
8 SepACardiff1-1D
5 SepHCharlton4-0W
1 SepHNorwich1-0W
29 AugAWolves1-4L
25 AugHHull City1-1D
22 AugASouthampton1-3L

Head to head

5Derby wins
4draws
5Stoke City wins

14 meetings · goals 18:14 · last 10: 5W 2D 3L for Derby

6 Apr 2026ChampionshipChampionshipDerby2-0Stoke City
9 Aug 2025ChampionshipChampionshipStoke City3-1Derby
3 May 2025ChampionshipChampionshipDerby0-0Stoke City
2 Nov 2024ChampionshipChampionshipStoke City2-1Derby
22 Jul 2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies ClubsDerby3-0Stoke City
30 Dec 2021ChampionshipChampionshipStoke City1-2Derby
18 Sep 2021ChampionshipChampionshipDerby2-1Stoke City
20 Mar 2021ChampionshipChampionshipStoke City1-0Derby
12 Dec 2020ChampionshipChampionshipDerby0-0Stoke City
31 Jan 2020ChampionshipChampionshipDerby4-0Stoke City

Championship tableChampionshipupdated 20 Oct 20:50 UTC

In the Championship table, Derby sit 23rd with 6 points from 11 games, while Stoke City are 6th with 19 points from 11.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Swansea1172216:8+823
2West Ham1164130:12+1822
3Middlesbrough1164122:16+622
4Birmingham1155120:11+920
5West Brom1162315:12+320
6Stoke City1161418:16+219
7Southampton1163221:10+1117
8Wolves1052318:15+317
9QPR1145215:12+317
10Blackburn1143417:16+115
11Sheffield Utd1143415:14+115
12Millwall1143418:18015
13Portsmouth1042413:13014
14Wrexham1135315:16-114
15Bolton1142515:18-314
16Bristol City1142512:15-314
17Charlton1135310:15-514
18Lincoln113359:19-1012
19Cardiff1125418:17+111
20Watford1132610:19-911
21Norwich1130817:21-49
22Burnley1115516:21-58
23Derby111379:20-116
24Preston111199:24-154

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg132%2.89X28%3.37240%2.37

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14 Oct 00:0115 Oct 21:101 2.85X 3.352 2.38
12.55 → 2.85 +11.8%X3.28 → 3.35 +2.1%22.68 → 2.38 -11.2%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle2.031.863.0%
Bet3652.001.805.6%
1xBet1.931.817.1%
Marathonbet1.931.817.1%
BetVictor1.901.788.8%
Best of all books2.031.863.0%
Average1.961.816.3%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
William Hill1.752.007.1%
Bet3651.732.007.8%
1xBet1.722.017.9%
Marathonbet1.721.988.6%
BetVictor1.702.008.8%
Best of all books1.752.016.9%
Average1.722.008.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Derby 10%Draw 45%Stoke City 45%

The statistical model rated Derby at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Stoke City at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.89 | 3.37 | 2.37, which imply roughly 29.7% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Championship table: Derby are 23rd (6 pts, 9-20 goals), Stoke City 6th (19 pts, 18-16).

Over their last five matches, Derby averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Stoke City averaged 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Stoke City.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Derby

4-2-3-1

Coach: J. Eustace

Goalkeeper

  • 31J. Vickers

Defence

  • 23J. Ward
  • 24R. Nyambe
  • 28D. Sanderson
  • 26R. Hedges

Midfield

  • 27L. Travis
  • 4D. Ozoh
  • 16M. Fuseini
  • 11S. Szmodics
  • 8B. Clark

Attack

  • 9C. Morris
Substitutes (9)
  • 13F. Bilbija
  • 33C. Blackett-Taylor
  • 10R. Brewster
  • 29O. Fraulo
  • 19H. Meister
  • 12R. O'Donnell
  • 15L. Salvesen
  • 42Raymond Offor
  • 43I. Gordon

Stoke City

3-4-3

Coach: M. Robins

Goalkeeper

  • 1V. Johansson

Defence

  • 18B. Lawal
  • 16B. Wilmot
  • 5L. Graham

Midfield

  • 2B. Johnson
  • 27El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
  • 8E. Galbraith
  • 17E. Bocat

Attack

  • 7J. McGlynn
  • 11L. Cissé
  • 13J. Devenny
Substitutes (9)
  • 15G. Hirst
  • 42M. Manhoef
  • 4B. Pearson
  • 40M. Talovierov
  • 22J. Tchamadeu
  • 9R. Boženík
  • 24J. Griffiths
  • 21L. Bombino
  • 10Bae Jun-Ho

Match Statistics

DerbyStoke City
1.07Expected Goals0.62
296Passes accurate245
14Shots insidebox3
3Shots outsidebox9
10Blocked Shots3
9Free Kicks12
3Shots on Goal4
3Goalkeeper Saves3
4Shots off Goal5
2Offsides2
369Total passes324
17Total Shots12
1Yellow Cards0
7Corner Kicks4
12Fouls10
0Red Cards0
53%Ball Possession47%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.893.372.37

Double chance

1XX212
1.531.391.30

Draw no bet

12
2.071.69

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.722.00

1st half

1X2
3.482.153.00

2nd half

1X2
3.102.382.71

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 14.6215.029.3
HT X6.535.175.83
HT 232.314.23.73

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.0910.81.85

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.039.40
1.51.293.33
2.51.961.81
3.53.331.28
4.56.801.08
5.513.31.02
6.529.01.01
7.550.5–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.018.95
11.018.50
1.251.154.33
1.751.362.88
21.462.53
2.251.712.06
2.752.191.61
32.661.42
3.252.901.32
3.753.981.18
45.751.07
4.256.151.06
59.201.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.52.881.40
-0.252.441.51
02.081.71
+0.251.752.01
+0.51.582.34
+0.751.392.79
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-29.501.01
-1.757.731.05
-1.56.081.08
-1.255.601.10
-15.181.12
-0.753.511.26
+11.223.83
+1.251.184.30
+1.51.144.70
+1.751.086.45
+21.028.90
+2.51.019.90

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
31.333.11
3.51.682.12
41.941.85
4.52.121.67
53.061.34

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.0210.0
6.51.036.51
7.51.173.97
8.51.362.73
9.51.682.08
10.52.101.67
11.52.701.38
12.53.691.19
13.55.321.09
14.59.001.03
15.513.01.01
21 more lines
LineOverUnder
6.751.046.25
71.055.98
7.251.114.70
7.751.183.76
81.213.56
8.251.293.05
8.751.422.57
91.502.45
9.251.582.22
9.751.761.95
101.891.88
10.251.971.74
10.752.221.57
112.441.51
11.252.561.42
11.752.971.31
123.381.23
12.253.541.21
12.754.241.14
135.051.09
13.255.251.08

Next Championship matches

23 OctBolton – Middlesbrough

All Championship fixtures and the table

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