Southampton vs Bolton• Championship, England

#82.0:0.80-0FT17/10 · St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton2.2:1.8#15

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.48B365X5.39PIN26.85PINMargin at best0.7%Books6Markets99Rating64 · 37Exp. goals L53.4

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 10:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.41	5.39	6.85	4.1%
Bet365	1.48	4.75	6.00	5.3%
1xBet	1.42	4.90	6.20	7.0%
Marathonbet	1.41	4.90	6.20	7.5%
BetVictor	1.40	4.80	6.50	7.6%
William Hill	1.40	4.80	6.00	8.9%
Best of all books	1.48	5.39	6.85	0.7%
Average	1.42	4.92	6.29	6.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

SouthamptonBolton

Last 10#8Table position#151.55Points per game1.2712Form pts · last 5102.0Goals for · last 52.20.8Goals against · last 51.848Attack rating5269Defence rating3157Form rating430H2H rating080Goals model2064Overall rating37

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 04:50 UTC

Southampton

6W 2D 2L · goals 21:12 · per match 2.1 for, 1.2 against

14 Oct	A	Norwich	1-0	W
11 Oct	H	Portsmouth	1-0	W
19 Sep	A	Wrexham	1-2	L
12 Sep	H	Bristol City	4-1	W
8 Sep	H	Swansea	3-1	W
5 Sep	A	Lincoln	1-1	D
1 Sep	A	Birmingham	1-1	D
29 Aug	H	Millwall	5-1	W
25 Aug	H	West Ham	1-4	L
22 Aug	H	Stoke City	3-1	W

Bolton

3W 2D 5L · goals 13:17 · per match 1.3 for, 1.7 against

17 Oct	A	Southampton	0-0	D
13 Oct	A	Wolves	3-1	W
10 Oct	H	Stoke City	1-2	L
20 Sep	A	Norwich	4-3	W
12 Sep	H	Cardiff	1-0	W
8 Sep	H	West Ham	2-3	L
5 Sep	A	Millwall	0-4	L
1 Sep	A	Sheffield Utd	2-3	L
29 Aug	H	Lincoln	0-1	L
22 Aug	A	QPR	0-0	D

Head to head

No previous meetings between Southampton and Bolton on record.

Championship tableChampionshipupdated 20 Oct 23:00 UTC

In the Championship table, Southampton sit 8th with 17 points from 11 games, while Bolton are 15th with 14 points from 11.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	11	7	2	2	16:8	+8	23
2	West Ham	11	6	4	1	30:12	+18	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	22:16	+6	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	20:11	+9	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	15:12	+3	20
6	Stoke City	11	6	1	4	18:16	+2	19
7	Wolves	11	5	3	3	19:16	+3	18
8	Southampton	11	6	3	2	21:10	+11	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	15:12	+3	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	17:16	+1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	4	3	4	15:14	+1	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	18:18	0	15
13	Portsmouth	11	4	3	4	14:14	0	15
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	15:16	-1	14
15	Bolton	11	4	2	5	15:18	-3	14
16	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	12:15	-3	14
17	Charlton	11	3	5	3	10:15	-5	14
18	Lincoln	11	3	3	5	9:19	-10	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	18:17	+1	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	10:19	-9	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	17:21	-4	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	16:21	-5	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	9:20	-11	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	9:24	-15	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg166%1.42X19%4.90215%6.25

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.40 → 1.42 +1.4%X4.89 → 4.92 +0.6%26.45 → 6.29 -2.5%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.41	2.99	4.4%
Bet365	1.40	3.00	4.8%
BetVictor	1.40	2.66	9.0%
1xBet	1.37	2.66	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.37	2.66	10.6%
Best of all books	1.41	3.00	4.3%
Average	1.39	2.79	7.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.53	2.40	7.0%
1xBet	1.55	2.30	8.0%
Bet365	1.57	2.25	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.55	2.26	8.8%
BetVictor	1.53	2.30	8.8%
Best of all books	1.57	2.40	5.4%
Average	1.55	2.30	8.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Southampton 45%Draw 45%Bolton 10%

The statistical model rated Southampton at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Bolton at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.42 | 4.90 | 6.25, which imply roughly 70.4% for a Southampton win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Championship table: Southampton are 8th (17 pts, 21-10 goals), Bolton 15th (14 pts, 15-18).

Over their last five matches, Southampton averaged 2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Bolton averaged 2.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Southampton and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Southampton

4-2-3-1

Coach: Tonda Eckert

Goalkeeper

1Daniel Peretz

Defence

14J. Bree
5J. Stephens
13K. Schlotterbeck
34Welington

Midfield

18T. Fellows
26Cameron Bragg
30J. Ward-Prowse
10F. Azaz
7Léo Scienza

Attack

9C. Larin

Substitutes (9)

25G. Long
8C. Jander
23S. Edozie
11L. Dobbin
6Z. Abbott
27K. Matsuki
3R. Manning
28D. Mubama
15N. Wood-Gordon

Bolton

4-2-3-1

Coach: S. Schumacher

Goalkeeper

31G. Bazunu

Defence

22Gaizka Larrazabal
18E. Toal
5L. Brunt
14A. Famewo

Midfield

8J. Sheehan
27Luca Stephenson
17A. Ito
4X. Simons
11T. Gale

Attack

10S. Dalby

Substitutes (9)

1J. Bonham
25M. Conway
6B. Davies
7K. Dong
21E. Erhahon
39R. Hardie
16S. Iling-Junior
20Ruben Rodrigues
9T. Bair

Match Statistics

SouthamptonBolton

1.91Expected Goals1.24

529Passes accurate270

11Shots insidebox9

3Shots outsidebox5

5Blocked Shots7

8Free Kicks7

2Shots on Goal3

3Goalkeeper Saves2

7Shots off Goal4

10Offsides0

611Total passes366

14Total Shots14

2Yellow Cards4

5Corner Kicks3

8Fouls9

0Red Cards0

62%Ball Possession38%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.42	4.92	6.29

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.11	2.75	1.15

Draw no bet

1	2
1.16	4.93

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.55	2.30

1st half

1	X	2
1.82	2.72	5.85

2nd half

1	X	2
1.71	3.06	5.11

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	1.99	16.3	40.0
HT X	4.47	8.20	14.0
HT 2	18.3	17.7	10.7

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.39	23.0	2.94

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	19.0
1.5	1.10	5.99
2.5	1.39	2.79
3.5	2.01	1.77
4.5	3.21	1.31
5.5	5.88	1.10
6.5	11.0	1.05
7.5	21.0	1.01
8.5	41.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	12.5
1.75	1.10	5.10
2	1.14	4.52
2.25	1.26	3.25
2.75	1.47	2.49
3	1.59	2.22
3.25	1.81	1.93
3.75	2.25	1.58
4	2.60	1.40
4.25	2.86	1.33
4.75	3.76	1.19
5	4.90	1.11
5.25	5.15	1.10
6	9.00	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.35	1.53
-1.5	2.06	1.69
-1.25	1.86	1.88
-1	1.63	2.22
-0.75	1.48	2.49
-0.5	1.41	2.86

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	6.05	1.06
-3.25	6.60	1.11
-3	5.68	1.10
-2.75	4.20	1.17
-2.5	3.41	1.25
-2.25	3.19	1.31
-2	2.86	1.37
-0.25	1.27	3.46
0	1.14	4.75
+0.25	1.12	5.12
+0.5	1.14	5.75
+0.75	1.06	7.27
+1	1.01	10.0
+1.5	1.01	10.0

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
3	1.37	2.89
3.5	1.67	2.11
4	2.04	1.76
4.5	2.47	1.51
5	3.34	1.29

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
5.5	1.01	11.0
6.5	1.06	7.50
7.5	1.13	4.48
8.5	1.29	3.04
9.5	1.56	2.28
10.5	1.92	1.81
11.5	2.43	1.49
12.5	3.26	1.25
13.5	4.57	1.12
14.5	6.96	1.02
15.5	9.00	1.03

23 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.01	7.18
7.25	1.06	5.50
7.75	1.13	4.34
8	1.15	4.13
8.25	1.22	3.46
8.75	1.33	2.88
9	1.37	2.72
9.25	1.47	2.44
9.75	1.63	2.13
10	1.72	2.07
10.25	1.81	1.89
10.75	2.03	1.70
11	2.19	1.64
11.25	2.30	1.53
11.75	2.63	1.40
12	2.94	1.32
12.25	3.08	1.28
12.75	3.64	1.20
13	4.24	1.14
13.25	4.42	1.12
13.75	5.36	1.07
14	6.55	1.03
14.25	6.76	1.02

Next Championship matches

23 Oct

Bolton – Middlesbrough

All Championship fixtures and the table

Latest Championship results

20 Oct	Wolves 1-1 Portsmouth
17 Oct	Wrexham 4-1 Preston
17 Oct	West Brom 3-2 Blackburn
17 Oct	Bristol City 0-1 Sheffield Utd
17 Oct	Norwich 0-1 Portsmouth
17 Oct	Birmingham 3-0 QPR