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V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima• J1 League, Japan

#151.0:1.44-0FTToday · Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki2.8:0.8#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

17.50BVCX5.36PIN21.44BTNMargin at best1.4%Books10Markets74Rating26 · 74Exp. goals L53.0

Price board · 1X2captured 21 Oct 08:27 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle7.285.361.403.8%
Dafabet7.405.001.414.4%
1xBet7.285.031.414.5%
BetVictor7.504.801.405.6%
Bet3656.505.001.406.8%
Betano6.404.551.447.0%
Marathonbet7.104.901.377.5%
William Hill6.504.751.407.9%
SBO6.954.521.398.5%
Betfair7.005.001.339.5%
Best of all books7.505.361.441.4%
Average6.994.891.406.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

V-varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshima
Last 10#15Table position#10.90Points per game2.302Form pts · last 5151.0Goals for · last 52.81.4Goals against · last 50.826Attack rating7436Defence rating6429Form rating710H2H rating10028Goals model7226Overall rating74

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 21 Oct 00:02 UTC

V-varen Nagasaki

2W 3D 5L · goals 9:16 · per match 0.9 for, 1.6 against

17 OctAKashima0-2L
11 OctAJEF United Chiba1-1D
7 OctAShimizu S-pulse1-2L
29 SepAGainare Tottori0-2L
19 SepHCerezo Osaka1-1D
12 SepHNagoya Grampus2-0W
9 SepAKochi United1-0W
6 SepAVissel Kobe1-3L
2 SepHGamba Osaka2-2D
29 AugHFC Tokyo0-3L

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

8W 1D 1L · goals 24:4 · per match 2.4 for, 0.4 against

17 OctHKyoto Sanga3-0W
14 OctAMatsumoto Yamaga1-0W
11 OctATokyo Verdy2-0W
7 OctHIwaki4-0W
29 SepATochigi City2-0W
19 SepAAvispa Fukuoka1-0W
12 SepHCerezo Osaka6-1W
6 SepAFagiano Okayama2-3L
2 SepHNagoya Grampus3-0W
29 AugAGamba Osaka0-0D

Head to head

0V-varen Nagasaki wins
0draws
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins

4 meetings · goals 1:9 · last 4: 0W 0D 4L for V-varen Nagasaki

18 Apr 2026J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueSanfrecce Hiroshima2-0V-varen Nagasaki
6 Feb 2026J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueV-varen Nagasaki1-3Sanfrecce Hiroshima
11 Aug 2018J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueSanfrecce Hiroshima2-0V-varen Nagasaki
28 Apr 2018J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueV-varen Nagasaki0-2Sanfrecce Hiroshima

J1 League tableJ-Leagueupdated 21 Oct 11:30 UTC

In the J1 League table, V-varen Nagasaki sit 15th with 9 points from 10 games, while Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 1st with 23 points from 10.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Sanfrecce Hiroshima1072125:6+1923
2Machida Zelvia1072125:10+1523
3FC Tokyo1072121:8+1323
4Vissel Kobe1071217:9+822
5Kashiwa Reysol1070322:17+521
6Kashima1061321:16+519
7Kawasaki Frontale1044221:16+516
8Yokohama F. Marinos1044213:9+416
9Urawa1050517:21-415
10Shimizu S-pulse1042410:11-114
11Fagiano Okayama1041512:15-313
12Nagoya Grampus1040612:16-412
13Cerezo Osaka103349:16-712
14Mito Hollyhock1023512:14-29
15V-varen Nagasaki1023511:18-79
16Kyoto Sanga1022611:19-88
17Avispa Fukuoka1021711:16-57
18Gamba Osaka1014510:18-87
19JEF United Chiba101368:19-116
20Tokyo Verdy100464:18-144

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg113%6.99X19%4.89267%1.40

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

18 Oct 00:0021 Oct 09:401 6.99X 4.892 1.40
15.89 → 6.99 +18.7%X4.75 → 4.89 +2.9%21.45 → 1.40 -3.4%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.672.313.2%
1xBet1.652.274.7%
SBO1.622.315.0%
Betano1.672.185.8%
Bet3651.652.206.1%
Betfair1.572.258.1%
BetVictor1.602.149.2%
Marathonbet1.562.1510.6%
Best of all books1.672.313.2%
Average1.622.236.5%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.801.956.8%
William Hill1.752.007.1%
1xBet1.811.907.9%
Betfair1.851.858.1%
Betano1.831.878.1%
BetVictor1.801.908.2%
Marathonbet1.811.878.7%
Best of all books1.852.004.1%
Average1.811.917.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

V-varen Nagasaki 0%Draw 50%Sanfrecce Hiroshima 50%

The statistical model rated V-varen Nagasaki at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 6.99 | 4.89 | 1.40, which imply roughly 20.4% for the draw versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the J1 League table: V-varen Nagasaki are 15th (9 pts, 11-18 goals), Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1st (23 pts, 25-6).

Over their last five matches, V-varen Nagasaki averaged 1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Sanfrecce Hiroshima averaged 2.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

V-varen Nagasaki

3-4-2-1

Coach: T. Takagi

Goalkeeper

  • 1M. Goto

Defence

  • 25T. Ominami
  • 29I. Arai
  • 31K. Doi

Midfield

  • 22H. Onaga
  • 5H. Yamaguchi
  • 41M. Hasegawa
  • 23S. Yoneda
  • 10Matheus Jesus
  • 19T. Sawada

Attack

  • 99Jonathan
Substitutes (8)
  • 6Y. Egawa
  • 21Diego Pituca
  • 13G. Hatano
  • 88A. Masuyama
  • 50R. Shindo
  • 24R. Yamada
  • 18R. Yamasaki
  • 7K. Yasuda

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

3-4-2-1

Coach: Bartosch Gaul

Goalkeeper

  • 1K. Osako

Defence

  • 15S. Nakano
  • 4H. Araki
  • 7S. Higashi

Midfield

  • 5N. Arai
  • 6H. Kawabe
  • 35Y. Nakajima
  • 18D. Suga
  • 29T. Asano
  • 10A. Suzuki

Attack

  • 22S. Haller
Substitutes (9)
  • 99I. Ouchi
  • 14T. Matsumoto
  • 32S. Koshimichi
  • 45S. Kobayashi
  • 37Kim Ju-Sung
  • 8T. Kawamura
  • 11M. Kato
  • 9K. Yengi
  • 23S. Ayukawa

Match Statistics

V-varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshima
181Passes accurate635
10Shots insidebox8
2Shots outsidebox10
2Blocked Shots8
12Free Kicks14
4Shots on Goal2
3Goalkeeper Saves0
6Shots off Goal8
2Offsides1
257Total passes718
12Total Shots18
2Yellow Cards0
0Corner Kicks10
0Red Cards1
14Fouls13
26%Ball Possession74%
1.94Expected Goals1.35

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
6.994.891.40

Double chance

1XX212
2.861.091.16

Draw no bet

12
5.331.13

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.811.91

1st half

1X2
6.462.501.85

2nd half

1X2
5.802.871.70

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 111.618.220.7
HT X14.17.274.25
HT 252.717.01.97

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
3.1616.61.36

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0212.5
1.51.174.47
2.51.622.23
3.52.571.47
4.54.631.16
5.58.781.04
6.516.91.02
7.541.0–
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.019.40
1.251.066.35
1.751.173.95
21.243.40
2.251.442.66
2.751.771.97
32.031.73
3.252.301.59
3.752.841.37
43.841.19
4.254.151.16
4.755.701.08
58.201.02
5.257.981.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
+0.52.861.40
+0.752.551.48
+12.241.63
+1.251.921.87
+1.51.692.12
+1.751.502.41
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-1.512.01.02
-110.01.01
-0.56.251.12
-0.255.811.09
05.251.13
+0.253.691.24
+21.333.09
+2.251.273.45
+2.51.233.64
+2.751.144.65
+31.076.70
+3.51.057.17

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
6.51.105.30
7.51.243.50
8.51.462.52
9.51.791.94
10.52.261.57
11.52.991.33
12.53.801.20
13.55.201.10
14.57.201.04
8 more lines
LineOverUnder
8.751.482.40
91.592.29
9.251.672.07
9.751.861.82
102.011.78
10.252.131.62
10.752.411.45
112.521.47

Latest J1 League results

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21 OctFagiano Okayama 2-0 Mito Hollyhock