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Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock• J1 League, Japan

#111.4:2.02-0FTToday · JFE Harenokuni Stadium, Okayama0.4:1.4#14

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.78BTNX3.80DAF25.74PINMargin6.5%Books10Markets76Rating65 · 35Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 21 Oct 06:01 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle1.813.624.813.7%
Dafabet1.813.704.604.0%
1xBet1.793.634.724.6%
BetVictor1.753.604.805.8%
Bet3651.803.504.506.3%
Betano1.783.454.606.9%
Betfair1.753.604.507.1%
Marathonbet1.743.544.607.5%
William Hill1.753.404.508.8%
SBO1.733.284.1012.7%
Best of all books1.813.704.813.1%
Average1.773.534.576.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Fagiano OkayamaMito Hollyhock
Last 10#11Table position#141.30Points per game0.907Form pts · last 561.4Goals for · last 50.42.0Goals against · last 51.478Attack rating2241Defence rating5986Form rating1475H2H rating2543Goals model5765Overall rating35

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 19 Oct 03:10 UTC

Fagiano Okayama

5W 1D 4L · goals 16:17 · per match 1.6 for, 1.7 against

18 OctHVissel Kobe0-3L
14 OctANagoya Grampus3-3D
10 OctAAvispa Fukuoka1-2L
7 OctHJEF United Chiba1-0W
29 SepAConsadole Sapporo2-1W
19 SepHKyoto Sanga1-2L
13 SepAUrawa2-1W
6 SepHSanfrecce Hiroshima3-2W
2 SepAJEF United Chiba2-1W
29 AugANagoya Grampus1-2L

Mito Hollyhock

3W 3D 4L · goals 15:10 · per match 1.5 for, 1.0 against

17 OctHUrawa0-1L
14 OctHFC Tokyo1-0W
11 OctHShimizu S-pulse1-2L
29 SepAFukushima United7-0W
19 SepAYokohama F. Marinos0-2L
12 SepHKawasaki Frontale0-1L
9 SepAParceiro Nagano0-0D
5 SepAAvispa Fukuoka1-1D
2 SepHKashima4-2W
29 AugHMachida Zelvia1-1D

Head to head

8Fagiano Okayama wins
8draws
10Mito Hollyhock wins

26 meetings · goals 24:25 · last 10: 4W 5D 1L for Fagiano Okayama

22 Sep 2024J2 LeagueJ2 LeagueMito Hollyhock0-0Fagiano Okayama
20 Mar 2024J2 LeagueJ2 LeagueFagiano Okayama1-0Mito Hollyhock
1 Jul 2023J2 LeagueJ2 LeagueFagiano Okayama1-0Mito Hollyhock
5 Mar 2023J2 LeagueJ2 LeagueMito Hollyhock1-1Fagiano Okayama
25 Jun 2022J2 LeagueJ2 LeagueMito Hollyhock1-1Fagiano Okayama
4 May 2022J2 LeagueJ2 LeagueFagiano Okayama2-1Mito Hollyhock
24 Oct 2021J2 LeagueJ2 LeagueMito Hollyhock1-1Fagiano Okayama
17 Apr 2021J2 LeagueJ2 LeagueFagiano Okayama1-2Mito Hollyhock
4 Oct 2020J2 LeagueJ2 LeagueMito Hollyhock0-0Fagiano Okayama
8 Aug 2020J2 LeagueJ2 LeagueFagiano Okayama3-1Mito Hollyhock

J1 League tableJ-Leagueupdated 21 Oct 11:30 UTC

In the J1 League table, Fagiano Okayama sit 11th with 13 points from 10 games, while Mito Hollyhock are 14th with 9 points from 10.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Sanfrecce Hiroshima1072125:6+1923
2Machida Zelvia1072125:10+1523
3FC Tokyo1072121:8+1323
4Vissel Kobe1071217:9+822
5Kashiwa Reysol1070322:17+521
6Kashima1061321:16+519
7Kawasaki Frontale1044221:16+516
8Yokohama F. Marinos1044213:9+416
9Urawa1050517:21-415
10Shimizu S-pulse1042410:11-114
11Fagiano Okayama1041512:15-313
12Nagoya Grampus1040612:16-412
13Cerezo Osaka103349:16-712
14Mito Hollyhock1023512:14-29
15V-varen Nagasaki1023511:18-79
16Kyoto Sanga1022611:19-88
17Avispa Fukuoka1021711:16-57
18Gamba Osaka1014510:18-87
19JEF United Chiba101368:19-116
20Tokyo Verdy100464:18-144

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg156%1.68X26%3.60218%5.20

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

19 Oct 03:1021 Oct 10:001 1.68X 3.602 5.20
11.73 → 1.68 -2.9%X3.65 → 3.60 -1.4%24.61 → 5.20 +12.8%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle2.151.763.3%
SBO2.041.804.6%
1xBet2.061.784.7%
Betfair2.101.735.4%
Bet3652.051.755.9%
Betano2.181.656.5%
Marathonbet2.021.747.0%
BetVictor1.991.709.1%
Best of all books2.181.801.4%
Average2.071.745.7%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair2.001.805.6%
Bet3651.951.806.8%
Betano2.021.727.6%
William Hill1.851.858.1%
1xBet1.891.818.2%
BetVictor1.911.788.5%
Marathonbet1.891.798.8%
Best of all books2.021.853.6%
Average1.931.797.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Fagiano Okayama 45%Draw 45%Mito Hollyhock 10%

The statistical model rated Fagiano Okayama at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Mito Hollyhock at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.68 | 3.60 | 5.20, which imply roughly 59.5% for a Fagiano Okayama win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the J1 League table: Fagiano Okayama are 11th (13 pts, 12-15 goals), Mito Hollyhock 14th (9 pts, 12-14).

Over their last five matches, Fagiano Okayama averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; Mito Hollyhock averaged 0.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Fagiano Okayama or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Fagiano Okayama

3-4-2-1

Coach: T. Kiyama

Goalkeeper

  • 1L. Moser

Defence

  • 26H. Motoyama
  • 48Y. Tatsuta
  • 43Y. Suzuki

Midfield

  • 28M. Matsumoto
  • 41E. Miyamoto
  • 80Oberdan
  • 88T. Yamane
  • 10Na Sang-Ho
  • 8A. Esaka

Attack

  • 99Lucão
Substitutes (9)
  • 55Y. Fujii
  • 52T. Hamada
  • 33Y. Kamiya
  • 20K. Kawano
  • 9Léo Gaúcho
  • 44S. Mori
  • 19R. Sato
  • 51K. Shirai
  • 7R. Takeuchi

Mito Hollyhock

4-4-2

Coach: D. Kimori

Goalkeeper

  • 27J. Słowik

Defence

  • 25T. Mase
  • 15Y. Kimoto
  • 17K. Itakura
  • 16Y. Tamura

Midfield

  • 30J. Okumura
  • 38Leonardo Hugo
  • 20Y. Funabashi
  • 22K. Taniguchi

Attack

  • 9R. Nemoto
  • 8C. Kato
Substitutes (9)
  • 2M. Fofana
  • 50R. Ieizumi
  • 44M. Nishihara
  • 34K. Nishikawa
  • 3K. Osaki
  • 33Patryck Ferreira
  • 29K. Tada
  • 39H. Yamamoto
  • 24K. Yamazaki

Match Statistics

Fagiano OkayamaMito Hollyhock
1.11Expected Goals0.31
268Passes accurate410
8Shots insidebox3
5Shots outsidebox4
3Blocked Shots2
12Free Kicks10
5Shots on Goal3
3Goalkeeper Saves4
5Shots off Goal2
5Offsides1
362Total passes521
13Total Shots7
1Yellow Cards0
4Corner Kicks2
10Fouls12
0Red Cards0
42%Ball Possession58%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.773.534.57

Double chance

1XX212
1.182.041.27

Draw no bet

12
1.303.33

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.931.79

1st half

1X2
2.362.124.87

2nd half

1X2
2.132.424.52

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 12.6815.246.1
HT X4.535.059.55
HT 225.215.47.56

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.589.002.71

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.048.63
1.51.333.07
2.52.071.74
3.53.671.25
4.57.431.07
5.514.81.02
6.526.81.01
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.027.88
11.037.20
1.251.164.10
1.751.402.71
21.552.32
2.251.801.98
2.752.321.55
32.781.40
3.253.031.30
3.754.301.15
46.001.06
4.256.401.05
59.701.01

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.53.201.33
-1.252.771.41
-12.411.54
-0.751.971.79
-0.51.742.07
-0.251.502.42
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.512.01.02
-2.758.201.02
-2.56.401.08
-2.255.871.09
-25.521.11
-1.754.111.23
01.293.35
+0.251.223.86
+0.51.204.40
+0.751.105.86
+11.038.80
+1.51.029.50

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
5.51.045.59
6.51.124.05
7.51.293.04
8.51.542.28
9.51.971.78
10.52.481.47
11.53.331.25
12.53.801.15
13.54.871.07
14 more lines
LineOverUnder
61.055.35
71.153.79
81.332.77
8.251.432.45
8.751.542.25
91.732.03
9.251.771.98
9.752.001.76
102.151.63
10.252.191.52
10.752.541.39
112.781.33
123.591.17
134.721.08

Latest J1 League results

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21 OctYokohama F. Marinos 2-2 Tokyo Verdy
21 OctKyoto Sanga 2-2 Kashima
21 OctKawasaki Frontale 2-1 Vissel Kobe
21 OctV-varen Nagasaki 4-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima