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Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka• J1 League, Japan

#121.2:1.61-1FTToday · Toyota Stadium, Toyota0.8:2.2#13

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.24DAFX3.72PIN23.25PINMargin at best2.3%Books10Markets65Rating60 · 40Exp. goals L52.9

Price board · 1X2captured 21 Oct 06:01 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle2.243.713.143.4%
Dafabet2.353.652.953.8%
1xBet2.393.592.854.8%
BetVictor2.303.702.885.2%
Betano2.303.452.926.7%
Bet3652.303.502.886.8%
Betfair2.303.702.756.9%
Marathonbet2.223.522.947.5%
William Hill2.303.302.809.5%
SBO2.213.262.7013.0%
Best of all books2.393.713.140.6%
Average2.293.542.886.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
Last 10#12Table position#131.20Points per game1.2010Form pts · last 5101.2Goals for · last 50.81.6Goals against · last 52.260Attack rating4058Defence rating4267Form rating3350H2H rating5083Goals model1760Overall rating40

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 21 Oct 00:02 UTC

Nagoya Grampus

4W 1D 5L · goals 15:19 · per match 1.5 for, 1.9 against

17 OctAKashiwa Reysol3-1W
14 OctHFagiano Okayama3-3D
11 OctAKawasaki Frontale2-1W
29 SepAKitakyushu3-1W
19 SepAFC Tokyo0-1L
12 SepAV-varen Nagasaki0-2L
6 SepHMachida Zelvia1-3L
2 SepASanfrecce Hiroshima0-3L
29 AugHFagiano Okayama2-1W
26 AugHGainare Tottori1-3L

Cerezo Osaka

4W 3D 3L · goals 13:15 · per match 1.3 for, 1.5 against

17 OctHKawasaki Frontale2-4L
14 OctAGainare Tottori3-2W
10 OctHYokohama F. Marinos0-0D
7 OctHKagoshima United2-0W
29 SepAFujieda MYFC2-1W
19 SepAV-varen Nagasaki1-1D
12 SepASanfrecce Hiroshima1-6L
6 SepHTokyo Verdy0-0D
2 SepHKashiwa Reysol2-0W
29 AugAVissel Kobe0-1L

Head to head

14Nagoya Grampus wins
5draws
12Cerezo Osaka wins

31 meetings · goals 37:39 · last 10: 5W 1D 4L for Nagoya Grampus

17 May 2026J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueCerezo Osaka6-1Nagoya Grampus
4 Apr 2026J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueNagoya Grampus3-0Cerezo Osaka
4 Oct 2025J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueNagoya Grampus2-1Cerezo Osaka
8 Mar 2025J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueCerezo Osaka1-1Nagoya Grampus
30 Jun 2024J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueCerezo Osaka2-1Nagoya Grampus
21 Apr 2024J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueNagoya Grampus2-1Cerezo Osaka
26 Aug 2023J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueCerezo Osaka3-1Nagoya Grampus
3 Jun 2023J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueNagoya Grampus3-1Cerezo Osaka
5 Nov 2022J1 LeagueJ1 LeagueCerezo Osaka0-1Nagoya Grampus
13 Jul 2022Emperor CupEmperor CupNagoya Grampus1-2Cerezo Osaka

J1 League tableJ-Leagueupdated 21 Oct 11:30 UTC

In the J1 League table, Nagoya Grampus sit 12th with 12 points from 10 games, while Cerezo Osaka are 13th with 12 points from 10.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Sanfrecce Hiroshima1072125:6+1923
2Machida Zelvia1072125:10+1523
3FC Tokyo1072121:8+1323
4Vissel Kobe1071217:9+822
5Kashiwa Reysol1070322:17+521
6Kashima1061321:16+519
7Kawasaki Frontale1044221:16+516
8Yokohama F. Marinos1044213:9+416
9Urawa1050517:21-415
10Shimizu S-pulse1042410:11-114
11Fagiano Okayama1041512:15-313
12Nagoya Grampus1040612:16-412
13Cerezo Osaka103349:16-712
14Mito Hollyhock1023512:14-29
15V-varen Nagasaki1023511:18-79
16Kyoto Sanga1022611:19-88
17Avispa Fukuoka1021711:16-57
18Gamba Osaka1014510:18-87
19JEF United Chiba101368:19-116
20Tokyo Verdy100464:18-144

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg143%2.19X27%3.54231%3.06

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

18 Oct 00:0021 Oct 10:001 2.19X 3.542 3.06
12.47 → 2.19 -11.3%X3.48 → 3.54 +1.7%22.67 → 3.06 +14.6%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.692.263.4%
1xBet1.692.204.6%
SBO1.662.215.5%
Betfair1.652.206.1%
Bet3651.672.156.4%
Betano1.672.156.4%
Marathonbet1.652.157.1%
BetVictor1.642.098.8%
Best of all books1.692.263.4%
Average1.672.186.0%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.532.456.2%
William Hill1.552.386.5%
1xBet1.532.357.9%
Betano1.532.357.9%
Bet3651.572.258.1%
Marathonbet1.532.318.6%
BetVictor1.502.388.7%
Best of all books1.572.454.5%
Average1.532.357.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Nagoya Grampus 45%Draw 45%Cerezo Osaka 10%

The statistical model rated Nagoya Grampus at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Cerezo Osaka at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.19 | 3.54 | 3.06, which imply roughly 45.7% for a Nagoya Grampus win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the J1 League table: Nagoya Grampus are 12th (12 pts, 12-16 goals), Cerezo Osaka 13th (12 pts, 9-16).

Over their last five matches, Nagoya Grampus averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Cerezo Osaka averaged 0.8 scored and 2.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Nagoya Grampus or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Nagoya Grampus

3-4-2-1

Coach: Michael Petrovic

Goalkeeper

  • 1D. Schmidt

Defence

  • 70T. Hara
  • 31T. Takamine
  • 3Y. Sato

Midfield

  • 17T. Uchida
  • 15S. Inagaki
  • 14T. Morishima
  • 27K. Nakayama
  • 7R. Izumi
  • 22Y. Kimura

Attack

  • 18K. Nagai
Substitutes (9)
  • 33T. Kikuchi
  • 19H. Koda
  • 58T. Koyamatsu
  • 2Y. Nogami
  • 41M. Ono
  • 35A. Pisano
  • 30S. Sugiura
  • 55S. Tokumoto
  • 11Y. Yamagishi

Cerezo Osaka

3-4-2-1

Coach: Pablo Machín

Goalkeeper

  • 23Kosuke Nakamura

Defence

  • 27Dion-Johan Cools
  • 4R. Inoue
  • 97T. Takahashi

Midfield

  • 16H. Okuda
  • 10S. Tanaka
  • 15Javi Hernández
  • 41Y. Komi
  • 77Lucas Fernandes
  • 8S. Kagawa

Attack

  • 19P. Sabbag
Substitutes (9)
  • 31K. Abe
  • 45K. Nagasoe
  • 2T. Nakamura
  • 6K. Noborizato
  • 28K. Okazawa
  • 17R. Sakata
  • 9S. Sakuragawa
  • 7S. Uejo
  • 14Y. Yokoyama

Match Statistics

Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
517Passes accurate329
8Shots insidebox6
5Shots outsidebox3
3Blocked Shots2
10Free Kicks13
3Shots on Goal4
2Goalkeeper Saves2
7Shots off Goal3
4Offsides2
598Total passes425
13Total Shots9
1Yellow Cards4
2Corner Kicks1
13Fouls10
0Red Cards0
58%Ball Possession42%
0.96Expected Goals0.68

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.293.542.88

Double chance

1XX212
1.391.571.28

Draw no bet

12
1.702.07

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.532.35

1st half

1X2
2.802.263.33

2nd half

1X2
2.592.603.00

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 13.6213.326.0
HT X5.835.786.84
HT 223.213.24.65

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.8013.82.08

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0212.8
1.51.194.28
2.51.662.18
3.52.571.45
4.54.721.16
5.58.681.04
6.517.61.02
7.541.0–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.029.00
1.251.085.48
1.751.213.59
21.283.19
2.251.482.56
2.751.831.95
32.071.70
3.252.291.55
3.752.921.31
43.751.19
4.254.071.16
4.755.401.09
57.301.03

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.752.601.44
-0.52.241.63
-0.251.981.81
01.692.14
+0.251.512.45
+0.51.432.78
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.58.171.03
-27.281.04
-1.755.231.12
-1.54.201.18
-1.253.721.24
-13.331.29
+0.751.273.46
+11.164.62
+1.251.135.05
+1.51.115.48
+1.751.067.06
+21.019.45
+2.51.0210.1

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
6.51.095.50
7.51.223.69
8.51.422.60
9.51.712.04
10.52.151.64
11.52.841.36
12.53.701.21
13.55.101.11
14.56.901.04
8 more lines
LineOverUnder
8.751.452.48
91.452.60
9.251.632.16
9.751.821.86
101.911.89
10.252.061.66
10.752.331.48
112.311.56

Latest J1 League results

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21 OctKawasaki Frontale 2-1 Vissel Kobe
21 OctFagiano Okayama 2-0 Mito Hollyhock