Groningen vs Ajax• Eredivisie, Netherlands

#72.6:1.42-5FTToday · Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, Groningen2.8:1.6#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.90B365X4.29PIN21.86PINMargin at best2.7%Books6Markets82Rating39 · 62Exp. goals L54.2

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Oct 12:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	3.77	4.29	1.86	3.6%
1xBet	3.80	4.22	1.85	4.1%
Bet365	3.90	4.00	1.83	5.3%
BetVictor	3.60	4.20	1.80	7.1%
Marathonbet	3.68	4.10	1.79	7.4%
William Hill	3.50	3.80	1.83	9.5%
Best of all books	3.90	4.29	1.86	2.7%
Average	3.71	4.10	1.83	6.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

GroningenAjax

Last 10#7Table position#41.56Points per game2.008Form pts · last 582.6Goals for · last 52.81.4Goals against · last 51.648Attack rating5253Defence rating4750Form rating5029H2H rating7114Goals model8639Overall rating62

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:31 UTC

Groningen

5W 3D 2L · goals 21:14 · per match 2.1 for, 1.4 against

11 Oct	A	Excelsior	5-1	W
18 Sep	H	PEC Zwolle	3-0	W
12 Sep	A	GO Ahead Eagles	1-1	D
6 Sep	H	Twente	2-2	D
28 Aug	H	Fortuna Sittard	2-3	L
23 Aug	A	PSV Eindhoven	1-5	L
16 Aug	A	ADO Den Haag	4-1	W
9 Aug	H	Utrecht	2-1	W
1 Aug	H	Valladolid	1-0	W
25 Jul	H	Volos NFC	0-0	D

Ajax

5W 3D 2L · goals 30:17 · per match 3.0 for, 1.7 against

15 Oct	A	HNK Hajduk Split	1-2	L
10 Oct	H	NEC Nijmegen	1-1	D
19 Sep	H	Excelsior	2-2	D
15 Sep	H	Willem II	5-1	W
12 Sep	A	Fortuna Sittard	5-1	W
5 Sep	H	PSV Eindhoven	1-3	L
30 Aug	A	Telstar	4-0	W
27 Aug	H	FC Sion	5-3	W
20 Aug	A	FC Sion	4-2	W
16 Aug	H	Heerenveen	2-2	D

Head to head

5Groningen wins

4draws

22Ajax wins

31 meetings · goals 25:62 · last 10: 1W 1D 8L for Groningen

21 May 2026Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Ajax2-0Groningen
7 Mar 2026Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Groningen3-1Ajax
2 Dec 2025Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Ajax2-0Groningen
14 May 2025Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Groningen2-2Ajax
6 Oct 2024Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Ajax3-1Groningen
16 May 2023Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Groningen2-3Ajax
14 Aug 2022Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Ajax6-1Groningen
2 Apr 2022Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Groningen1-3Ajax
25 Sep 2021Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Ajax3-0Groningen
7 Mar 2021Eredivisie	Eredivisie	Ajax3-1Groningen

Eredivisie tableEredivisieupdated 18 Oct 18:41 UTC

In the Eredivisie table, Groningen sit 7th with 14 points from 9 games, while Ajax are 4th with 18 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	31:10	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	20:10	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	27:12	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	27:12	+15	18
5	Twente	8	5	2	1	16:8	+8	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	14:15	-1	14
7	Groningen	9	4	2	3	22:19	+3	14
8	Heerenveen	9	3	3	3	15:11	+4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	9	2	5	2	20:21	-1	11
10	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	16:18	-2	11
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	13:14	-1	9
12	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	16:22	-6	9
13	Cambuur	9	2	3	4	13:21	-8	9
14	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	14:25	-11	8
15	PEC Zwolle	9	2	1	6	10:22	-12	7
16	Telstar	9	1	3	5	10:18	-8	6
17	ADO Den Haag	9	1	3	5	11:20	-9	6
18	Willem II	9	0	2	7	9:26	-17	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg125%3.80X23%4.17252%1.81

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.75 → 3.71 -1.1%X4.16 → 4.10 -1.4%21.78 → 1.83 +2.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.36	3.27	4.1%
Bet365	1.36	3.10	5.8%
BetVictor	1.33	3.10	7.4%
1xBet	1.31	2.92	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.31	2.92	10.6%
Best of all books	1.36	3.27	4.1%
Average	1.33	3.06	7.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.40	2.75	7.8%
1xBet	1.35	2.94	8.1%
BetVictor	1.33	3.00	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.35	2.88	8.8%
William Hill	1.36	2.80	9.2%
Best of all books	1.40	3.00	4.8%
Average	1.36	2.87	8.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Groningen 10%Draw 45%Ajax 45%

The statistical model rated Groningen at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Ajax at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.80 | 4.17 | 1.81, which imply roughly 24% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Eredivisie table: Groningen are 7th (14 pts, 22-19 goals), Ajax 4th (18 pts, 27-12).

Over their last five matches, Groningen averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Ajax averaged 2.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Ajax and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Groningen

4-2-3-1

Coach: D. Lukkien

Goalkeeper

1E. Vaessen

Defence

14J. Schreuders
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
33H. Hateboer

Midfield

8T. de Jonge
24P. Clement
17D. van der Werff
26T. van Bergen
11J. Ondrejka

Attack

9B. Willumsson

Substitutes (12)

19O. Zawada
30P. Boevink
4M. Csinger
44Besnik Mashuku
20Nils Eggens
7T. Hernes
18T. Land
34R. Metu
42J. Mosselaar
16A. Nordin
2Wouter Prins
13L. Štubljar

Ajax

4-3-3

Coach: Míchel

Goalkeeper

1M. ter Stegen

Defence

2Lucas Rosa
30A. Bouwman
36D. Janse
5O. Wijndal

Midfield

18D. Klaassen
4S. Amrabat
24J. Mokio

Attack

8J. Brandt
38Marcos Leonardo
10O. Gloukh

Substitutes (11)

99T. Arokodare
15Y. Baas
28Y. Bissouma
43Rayane Bounida
6T. Kehrer
68A. Ouazane
26M. Paes
51C. Setford
21Jofre Torrents
11V. Tsygankov
67Mohamed Abdalla

Match Statistics

GroningenAjax

2.29Expected Goals3.04

374Passes accurate392

8Shots insidebox13

8Shots outsidebox2

7Blocked Shots3

17Free Kicks12

5Shots on Goal11

4Goalkeeper Saves3

4Shots off Goal1

1Offsides4

436Total passes449

16Total Shots15

1Yellow Cards2

7Corner Kicks4

12Fouls17

0Red Cards0

57%Ball Possession43%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.71	4.10	1.83

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.92	1.27	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
2.79	1.39

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.36	2.87

1st half

1	X	2
3.78	2.62	2.27

2nd half

1	X	2
3.50	2.92	2.07

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	5.83	14.0	18.4
HT X	9.27	7.37	5.33
HT 2	27.7	13.8	2.69

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.25	25.0	1.60

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	22.0
1.5	1.08	6.82
2.5	1.33	3.06
3.5	1.88	1.88
4.5	3.01	1.34
5.5	5.29	1.13
6.5	11.0	1.05
7.5	21.0	1.01
8.5	41.0	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	16.0
1.75	1.07	5.85
2	1.09	5.40
2.25	1.20	3.70
2.75	1.38	2.67
3	1.49	2.44
3.25	1.70	2.10
3.75	2.07	1.68
4	2.40	1.51
4.25	2.59	1.39
4.75	3.34	1.24
5	4.33	1.14
5.25	4.64	1.12
6	8.30	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
0	2.86	1.40
+0.25	2.24	1.59
+0.5	1.99	1.81
+0.75	1.77	2.01
+1	1.56	2.35
+1.25	1.45	2.60

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	6.93	1.06
-1.25	6.43	1.07
-1	6.30	1.08
-0.75	4.42	1.16
-0.5	3.72	1.28
-0.25	3.31	1.32
+1.5	1.37	2.87
+1.75	1.26	3.38
+2	1.16	4.43
+2.25	1.13	4.92
+2.5	1.12	5.23
+2.75	1.07	6.53
+3.5	1.01	9.80

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.07	5.51
7.5	1.17	3.78
8.5	1.35	2.76
9.5	1.67	2.08
10.5	2.04	1.68
11.5	2.57	1.39
12.5	3.35	1.21
13.5	4.15	1.12
14.5	5.40	1.05

16 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.04	5.62
7	1.09	4.50
8	1.22	3.17
8.25	1.25	3.18
8.75	1.36	2.67
9	1.48	2.42
9.25	1.51	2.31
9.75	1.69	2.00
10	1.91	1.87
10.25	1.89	1.77
10.75	2.13	1.56
11	2.36	1.50
11.25	2.45	1.42
12	2.97	1.25
13	3.95	1.13
14	5.07	1.06

Latest Eredivisie results

18 Oct	NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Fortuna Sittard
18 Oct	Twente 1-2 Utrecht
18 Oct	Cambuur 2-2 AZ Alkmaar
18 Oct	PEC Zwolle 4-1 GO Ahead Eagles
17 Oct	Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 Willem II
17 Oct	Telstar 3-4 Feyenoord