Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap• Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

#180.4:2.22-1FTToday · Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam1.6:1.2#15

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.57BTNX4.47PIN22.40B365Margin at best2.9%Books10Markets76Rating37 · 63Exp. goals L52.7

Price board · 1X2captured 19 Oct 16:31 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.50	4.20	2.43	5.0%
Pinnacle	2.44	4.44	2.41	5.0%
BetVictor	2.50	4.20	2.38	5.8%
Bet365	2.45	4.00	2.45	6.6%
Betano	2.45	3.90	2.47	6.9%
Betfair	2.40	4.00	2.40	8.3%
1xBet	2.46	4.05	2.31	8.6%
Marathonbet	2.46	4.05	2.31	8.6%
William Hill	2.40	4.00	2.30	10.1%
SBO	2.36	3.77	2.27	13.0%
Best of all books	2.50	4.44	2.47	3.0%
Average	2.44	4.06	2.37	7.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Jong AjaxDe Graafschap

Last 10#18Table position#150.80Points per game1.104Form pts · last 5100.4Goals for · last 51.62.2Goals against · last 51.220Attack rating8035Defence rating6529Form rating7150H2H rating5043Goals model5737Overall rating63

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 06:31 UTC

Jong Ajax

2W 2D 6L · goals 13:25 · per match 1.3 for, 2.5 against

9 Oct	H	VVV Venlo	0-3	L
18 Sep	H	Roda	0-0	D
14 Sep	A	Jong Utrecht	1-6	L
11 Sep	H	Waalwijk	0-2	L
4 Sep	A	Almere City FC	1-0	W
31 Aug	A	Jong PSV U21	1-1	D
28 Aug	H	Helmond Sport	3-2	W
22 Aug	A	NAC Breda	2-3	L
17 Aug	H	Emmen	4-6	L
7 Aug	A	Dordrecht	1-2	L

De Graafschap

3W 2D 5L · goals 13:23 · per match 1.3 for, 2.3 against

9 Oct	H	Jong Utrecht	2-1	W
3 Oct	A	FC Eindhoven	2-2	D
27 Sep	H	Den Bosch	1-0	W
20 Sep	H	NAC Breda	1-2	L
11 Sep	A	Emmen	2-1	W
4 Sep	A	Heracles	0-5	L
29 Aug	H	Almere City FC	1-4	L
23 Aug	A	VVV Venlo	1-2	L
17 Aug	H	Jong AZ	2-5	L
9 Aug	A	Helmond Sport	1-1	D

Head to head

6Jong Ajax wins

4draws

7De Graafschap wins

17 meetings · goals 31:34 · last 10: 4W 2D 4L for Jong Ajax

6 Feb 2026Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap4-0Jong Ajax
3 Oct 2025Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	Jong Ajax2-2De Graafschap
19 Apr 2025Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap2-0Jong Ajax
9 Dec 2024Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	Jong Ajax2-0De Graafschap
11 Mar 2024Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap0-2Jong Ajax
21 Aug 2023Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	Jong Ajax1-2De Graafschap
13 Jan 2023Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap3-0Jong Ajax
22 Aug 2022Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	Jong Ajax5-1De Graafschap
6 May 2022Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	Jong Ajax1-1De Graafschap
26 Nov 2021Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap1-3Jong Ajax

Eerste Divisie tableEerste Divisie: Regular seasonupdated 19 Oct 18:50 UTC

In the Eerste Divisie table, Jong Ajax sit 18th with 8 points from 10 games, while De Graafschap are 15th with 11 points from 10.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	11	9	1	1	36:13	+23	28
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	23:9	+14	22
3	VVV Venlo	11	7	1	3	30:18	+12	22
4	Emmen	11	7	1	3	24:19	+5	22
5	NAC Breda	11	6	2	3	22:19	+3	20
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	16:15	+1	17
7	Roda	10	4	4	2	10:8	+2	16
8	FC Volendam	11	5	1	5	23:18	+5	16
9	MVV	11	5	1	5	14:25	-11	16
10	Waalwijk	11	3	6	2	20:16	+4	15
11	Jong AZ	11	4	2	5	26:22	+4	14
12	Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	16:19	-3	14
13	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	15:17	-2	13
14	FC OSS	11	4	0	7	16:17	-1	12
15	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13:23	-10	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	15:23	-8	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	16:21	-5	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	13:25	-12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13:27	-14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	16:23	-7	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg138%2.44X23%4.06239%2.37

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.60 → 2.47 -5.0%X4.06 → 4.04 -0.5%22.23 → 2.33 +4.5%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.29	3.60	5.3%
Bet365	1.28	3.60	5.9%
Betano	1.29	3.40	6.9%
BetVictor	1.25	3.60	7.8%
Betfair	1.20	4.00	8.3%
1xBet	1.23	3.42	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.23	3.42	10.5%
Best of all books	1.29	4.00	2.5%
Average	1.25	3.58	7.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.28	3.50	6.7%
1xBet	1.26	3.48	8.1%
Betano	1.27	3.40	8.2%
Betfair	1.20	4.00	8.3%
BetVictor	1.25	3.50	8.6%
William Hill	1.25	3.50	8.6%
Marathonbet	1.26	3.40	8.8%
Best of all books	1.28	4.00	3.1%
Average	1.25	3.54	8.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Jong Ajax 10%Draw 45%De Graafschap 45%

The statistical model rated Jong Ajax at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and De Graafschap at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.44 | 4.06 | 2.37, which imply roughly 24.6% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Eerste Divisie table: Jong Ajax are 18th (8 pts, 13-25 goals), De Graafschap 15th (11 pts, 13-23).

Over their last five matches, Jong Ajax averaged 0.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; De Graafschap averaged 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or De Graafschap.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Jong Ajax

4-3-3

Coach: Carlos García

Goalkeeper

1C. Setford

Defence

2R. van de Pavert
3G. Spina
4M. Muzungu
5J. Amour

Midfield

10Alejandro Monserrate
6T. Peters
8Mohamed Abdalla

Attack

7Leo Salazar
9E. Ünüvar
11P. Nash

Substitutes (12)

16A. Appiah
21L. Acheampong
19A. Camara
12A. Hani
20Jinairo Johnson
24A. Moumane
22J. Simeon
23P. Da Silva
18Sinclair de Falco
17M. van der Lans
25D. van der Vaart
30V. van der Velde

De Graafschap

4-3-3

Coach: T. Duivenvoorden

Goalkeeper

1T. Wieggers

Defence

16N. Martens
3R. Besselink
15T. Kok
5L. Schoppema

Midfield

10F. de Jong
23M. Diemers
8D. Warmerdam

Attack

20Gabriele Finocchiaro
40Kyano Kwint
11T. Mero

Substitutes (12)

2J. Wieckhoff
28J. Triep
21K. Symons
22P. Reverson
6C. Leemans
17N. Kaninda
9J. Kania
33R. Jonkers
4J. Hardeman
14Gijs Bolk
27N. Ahmeti-Grainca
7Bjorn van Zijl

Match Statistics

Jong AjaxDe Graafschap

2.85Expected Goals0.73

284Passes accurate379

11Shots insidebox7

8Shots outsidebox4

3Blocked Shots4

10Free Kicks17

11Shots on Goal5

4Goalkeeper Saves7

5Shots off Goal2

2Offsides2

344Total passes448

19Total Shots11

2Yellow Cards1

5Corner Kicks5

17Fouls10

0Red Cards0

43%Ball Possession57%

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.44	4.06	2.37

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.53	1.50	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
1.89	1.85

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.25	3.54

1st half

1	X	2
2.79	2.65	2.71

2nd half

1	X	2
2.64	3.00	2.51

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.77	12.7	18.4
HT X	6.78	7.83	6.76
HT 2	19.1	12.8	3.67

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.86	32.5	1.83

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	23.0
1.5	1.05	8.17
2.5	1.25	3.58
3.5	1.69	2.11
4.5	2.54	1.46
5.5	4.26	1.19
6.5	7.56	1.07
7.5	12.6	1.03
8.5	29.0	1.01
9.5	50.5	–

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	15.0
1.75	1.03	7.40
2	1.04	6.85
2.25	1.13	4.50
2.75	1.28	3.08
3	1.34	2.80
3.25	1.53	2.35
3.75	1.85	1.90
4	2.07	1.67
4.25	2.30	1.54
4.75	2.92	1.31
5	3.68	1.20
5.25	3.98	1.17
6	7.10	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.39	1.55
-0.25	2.15	1.64
0	1.91	1.84
+0.25	1.69	2.08
+0.5	1.56	2.37
+0.75	1.41	2.67

16 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	13.0	1.01
-2.5	8.63	1.02
-2	8.00	1.02
-1.75	5.53	1.10
-1.5	4.34	1.17
-1.25	3.92	1.20
-1	3.56	1.25
-0.75	2.81	1.38
+1	1.27	3.39
+1.25	1.24	3.61
+1.5	1.18	4.15
+1.75	1.12	5.20
+2	1.06	6.93
+2.25	1.10	7.00
+2.5	1.03	8.10
+3.5	1.01	13.0

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
7.5	1.11	4.29
8.5	1.22	3.54
9.5	1.43	2.61
10.5	1.73	2.02
11.5	2.11	1.64
12.5	2.68	1.39
13.5	3.55	1.25
14.5	4.50	1.14

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
8	1.12	4.05
9	1.26	2.92
9.75	1.45	2.48
10	1.55	2.26
10.25	1.62	2.16
10.75	1.80	1.88
11	1.93	1.84
11.25	2.01	1.68
11.75	2.26	1.51
12	2.46	1.47
13	3.05	1.24
14	4.00	1.13
15	5.09	1.06

Latest Eerste Divisie results

19 Oct	Jong Utrecht 1-2 Roda
19 Oct	Jong PSV U21 0-1 Dordrecht
18 Oct	MVV 1-5 Heracles
18 Oct	Waalwijk 1-1 FC Volendam
17 Oct	Emmen 2-1 Almere City FC
16 Oct	FC Eindhoven 0-1 Vitesse