MVV vs Heracles• Eerste Divisie, Netherlands

#80.8:3.014:45Tomorrow · De Geusselt, Maastricht2.0:1.0#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

16.50B365X5.22PIN21.44B365Margin at best4.0%Books6Markets81Rating27 · 74Exp. goals L53.4

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 21:14 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	6.15	5.22	1.41	6.3%
Bet365	6.50	4.50	1.44	7.1%
1xBet	6.31	4.95	1.39	8.0%
Marathonbet	6.25	4.95	1.38	8.7%
BetVictor	6.00	4.80	1.40	8.9%
William Hill	6.00	4.80	1.40	8.9%
Best of all books	6.50	5.22	1.44	4.0%
Average	6.20	4.87	1.40	7.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MVVHeracles

Last 10#8Table position#11.60Points per game2.503Form pts · last 5100.8Goals for · last 52.03.0Goals against · last 51.029Attack rating7125Defence rating7523Form rating7720H2H rating8029Goals model7127Overall rating74

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 07:31 UTC

MVV

4W 1D 5L · goals 11:25 · per match 1.1 for, 2.5 against

9 Oct	A	NAC Breda	0-1	L
3 Oct	A	FC OSS	1-4	L
26 Sep	H	Helmond Sport	2-0	W
18 Sep	A	Waalwijk	1-6	L
11 Sep	H	Almere City FC	0-4	L
6 Sep	H	Roda	1-1	D
28 Aug	A	Jong AZ	2-1	W
25 Aug	A	KRC Genk II	0-6	L
21 Aug	H	FC Volendam	1-0	W
14 Aug	A	FC Eindhoven	3-2	W

Heracles

8W 1D 1L · goals 31:12 · per match 3.1 for, 1.2 against

9 Oct	H	Waalwijk	3-0	W
2 Oct	A	Helmond Sport	2-2	D
26 Sep	H	Vitesse	2-0	W
18 Sep	A	Almere City FC	0-1	L
11 Sep	H	Jong AZ	3-2	W
4 Sep	H	De Graafschap	5-0	W
30 Aug	A	FC Eindhoven	3-1	W
24 Aug	A	Jong Utrecht	6-1	W
14 Aug	H	Den Bosch	3-2	W
7 Aug	A	VVV Venlo	4-3	W

Head to head

0MVV wins

1draws

1Heracles wins

2 meetings · goals 2:4 · last 2: 0W 1D 1L for MVV

13 Feb 2023Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	MVV0-2Heracles
29 Aug 2022Eerste Divisie	Eerste Divisie	Heracles2-2MVV

Eerste Divisie tableEerste Divisie: Regular seasonupdated 17 Oct 18:40 UTC

In the Eerste Divisie table, MVV sit 8th with 16 points from 10 games, while Heracles are 1st with 25 points from 10.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	31:12	+19	25
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	23:9	+14	22
3	VVV Venlo	11	7	1	3	30:18	+12	22
4	Emmen	11	7	1	3	24:19	+5	22
5	NAC Breda	11	6	2	3	22:19	+3	20
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	16:15	+1	17
7	Roda	10	4	4	2	10:8	+2	16
8	MVV	10	5	1	4	13:20	-7	16
9	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	22:17	+5	15
10	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	19:15	+4	14
11	Jong AZ	11	4	2	5	26:22	+4	14
12	Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	16:19	-3	14
13	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	15:17	-2	13
14	FC OSS	11	4	0	7	16:17	-1	12
15	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13:23	-10	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	15:23	-8	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	16:21	-5	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	13:25	-12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13:27	-14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	16:23	-7	7

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg115%6.20X19%4.87266%1.40

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

16.02 → 6.20 +3.0%X4.79 → 4.87 +1.7%21.41 → 1.40 -0.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.39	2.94	6.0%
Bet365	1.40	2.88	6.2%
BetVictor	1.40	2.80	7.1%
1xBet	1.36	2.70	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.36	2.70	10.6%
Best of all books	1.40	2.94	5.4%
Average	1.38	2.80	8.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.57	2.30	7.2%
Bet365	1.53	2.38	7.4%
1xBet	1.54	2.32	8.0%
BetVictor	1.50	2.38	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.54	2.28	8.8%
Best of all books	1.57	2.38	5.7%
Average	1.54	2.33	8.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

MVV 0%Draw 50%Heracles 50%

The statistical model rates MVV at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and Heracles at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 6.20 | 4.87 | 1.40, which imply roughly 20.5% for the draw versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Eerste Divisie table: MVV are 8th (16 pts, 13-20 goals), Heracles 1st (25 pts, 31-12).

Over their last five matches, MVV averaged 0.8 goals scored and 3 conceded per game; Heracles averaged 2 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Heracles.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
6.20	4.87	1.40

Double chance

1X	X2	12
2.73	1.10	1.15

Draw no bet

1	2
4.87	1.16

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.54	2.33

1st half

1	X	2
5.68	2.70	1.83

2nd half

1	X	2
5.23	3.06	1.70

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	10.7	18.0	18.8
HT X	14.2	8.20	4.39
HT 2	43.3	16.8	1.95

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.92	23.0	1.37

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	19.0
1.5	1.09	6.22
2.5	1.38	2.80
3.5	2.01	1.74
4.5	3.30	1.29
5.5	6.02	1.09
6.5	13.0	1.04
7.5	23.0	1.01
8.5	50.5	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	12.5
1.75	1.08	5.45
2	1.11	4.95
2.25	1.23	3.42
2.75	1.46	2.48
3	1.58	2.21
3.25	1.79	1.92
3.75	2.24	1.57
4	2.64	1.38
4.25	2.92	1.31
4.75	3.90	1.18
5	5.20	1.10
5.25	5.50	1.08

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.5	2.84	1.41
+0.75	2.47	1.47
+1	2.19	1.60
+1.25	1.88	1.85
+1.5	1.70	2.07
+1.75	1.53	2.36

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	9.70	1.01
-1	9.60	1.01
-0.5	6.25	1.12
-0.25	5.52	1.11
0	5.05	1.13
+0.25	3.48	1.26
+2	1.37	2.84
+2.25	1.31	3.14
+2.5	1.25	3.43
+2.75	1.17	4.25
+3	1.09	5.83
+3.25	1.08	6.21
+3.5	1.05	6.60

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.07	5.05
7.5	1.15	3.72
8.5	1.30	2.86
9.5	1.56	2.20
10.5	1.96	1.77
11.5	2.43	1.46
12.5	3.12	1.25
13.5	3.82	1.14
14.5	4.80	1.08

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.08	4.85
8	1.18	3.47
9	1.38	2.58
9.25	1.44	2.39
9.75	1.62	2.11
10	1.75	1.99
10.25	1.85	1.89
10.75	2.09	1.70
11	2.21	1.59
11.25	2.30	1.48
12	2.83	1.32
13	3.60	1.16
14	4.69	1.08