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Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin• Primera A, Colombia

#12.0:0.60-0LiveToday · Estadio Atanasio Girardot0.8:1.6#11

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.83BTNX3.80B36524.65BTNMargin at best2.5%Books10Markets88Rating75 · 25Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Oct 20:05 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano1.833.804.652.5%
Pinnacle1.793.784.424.9%
Bet3651.733.804.506.3%
Dafabet1.763.754.306.7%
Betfair1.753.804.107.8%
1xBet1.733.704.337.9%
BetVictor1.703.754.338.6%
Marathonbet1.713.704.338.6%
William Hill1.753.404.2010.4%
SBO1.653.433.9814.9%
Best of all books1.833.804.652.5%
Average1.743.694.317.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Atletico NacionalIndependiente Medellin
Last 10#1Table position#112.11Points per game1.3710Form pts · last 542.0Goals for · last 50.80.6Goals against · last 51.671Attack rating2973Defence rating2771Form rating2993H2H rating777Goals model2375Overall rating25

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 23 Oct 04:10 UTC

Atletico Nacional

5W 3D 2L · goals 18:11 · per match 1.8 for, 1.1 against

23 OctHDeportivo Pasto3-0W
20 OctACucuta0-1L
17 OctAChico4-1W
15 OctHIndependiente Medellin3-2W
8 OctHDeportes Tolima0-0D
1 OctHJunior3-1W
26 SepHChapecoense-sc1-1D
25 SepHMillonarios1-1D
21 SepALlaneros0-2L
17 SepAInternacional de Bogota3-2W

Independiente Medellin

3W 2D 5L · goals 15:17 · per match 1.5 for, 1.7 against

18 OctHOnce Caldas0-2L
15 OctAAtletico Nacional2-3L
12 OctAAmerica de Cali2-1W
6 OctHSanta Fe0-1L
30 SepHMillonarios2-2D
27 SepAJunior0-2L
22 SepHJaguares2-1W
18 SepABucaramanga2-2D
12 SepAChico1-2L
10 SepADeportivo Pasto4-1W

Head to head

16Atletico Nacional wins
17draws
10Independiente Medellin wins

43 meetings · goals 69:55 · last 10: 5W 5D 0L for Atletico Nacional

15 Oct 2026Copa ColombiaCopa ColombiaAtletico Nacional3-2Independiente Medellin
12 Apr 2026Primera APrimera AIndependiente Medellin2-3Atletico Nacional
18 Dec 2025Copa ColombiaCopa ColombiaIndependiente Medellin0-1Atletico Nacional
13 Dec 2025Copa ColombiaCopa ColombiaAtletico Nacional0-0Independiente Medellin
4 Dec 2025Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional2-1Independiente Medellin
23 Nov 2025Primera APrimera AIndependiente Medellin0-0Atletico Nacional
26 Oct 2025Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional5-2Independiente Medellin
7 Sep 2025Primera APrimera AIndependiente Medellin3-3Atletico Nacional
4 May 2025Primera APrimera AIndependiente Medellin1-1Atletico Nacional
23 Mar 2025Primera APrimera AAtletico Nacional1-1Independiente Medellin

Primera A tableAperturaupdated 25 Oct 23:10 UTC

In the Primera A table, Atletico Nacional sit 1st with 40 points from 19 games, while Independiente Medellin are 11th with 26 points from 19.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Atletico Nacional19131535:15+2040
2Junior19112631:24+735
3Deportivo Pasto19104529:25+434
4America de Cali19103625:15+1033
5Once Caldas1989231:22+933
6Deportes Tolima1987427:17+1031
7Santa Fe1978429:22+729
8Internacional de Bogota1977526:26028
9Deportivo Cali1976620:16+427
10Millonarios1975731:23+826
11Independiente Medellin1975726:24+226
12Águilas Doradas1975720:25-526
13Bucaramanga1958626:20+623
14Llaneros19410517:20-322
15Fortaleza FC1957722:27-522
16Jaguares19531120:33-1318
17Alianza Valledupar1938813:27-1417
18Chico19521215:32-1717
19Cucuta1937922:35-1316
20Deportivo Pereira19171115:32-1710

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg153%1.74X25%3.69222%4.31

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

22 Oct 00:0125 Oct 21:401 1.74X 3.692 4.31
11.79 → 1.74 -2.8%X3.50 → 3.69 +5.4%24.15 → 4.31 +3.9%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.772.074.8%
Betfair1.732.105.4%
Bet3651.732.085.9%
Betano1.752.055.9%
1xBet1.732.027.3%
Marathonbet1.732.027.3%
BetVictor1.711.989.0%
Best of all books1.772.104.1%
Average1.742.056.5%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.672.156.4%
Bet3651.672.107.5%
William Hill1.672.107.5%
1xBet1.682.068.1%
Betano1.652.108.2%
BetVictor1.672.058.7%
Marathonbet1.682.038.8%
Best of all books1.682.156.0%
Average1.672.087.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Atletico Nacional 50%Draw 50%Independiente Medellin 0%

The statistical model rates Atletico Nacional at 50% to win, the draw at 50% and Independiente Medellin at 0% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.74 | 3.69 | 4.31, which imply roughly 57.5% for a Atletico Nacional win versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Primera A table: Atletico Nacional are 1st (40 pts, 35-15 goals), Independiente Medellin 11th (26 pts, 26-24).

Over their last five matches, Atletico Nacional averaged 2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Independiente Medellin averaged 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Atletico Nacional.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Confirmed Lineups

Atletico Nacional

4-2-3-1

Goalkeeper

  • 34Franco Armani

Defence

  • 6Andrés Román
  • 3Neider Parra
  • 16William Tesillo
  • 33Samuel Velásquez

Midfield

  • 8Matheus Uribe
  • 21Jorman Campuzano
  • 26Felipe Marin
  • 10Edwin Cardona
  • 22Elías Cabrera

Attack

  • 23James Rodríguez
Substitutes (9)
  • 25Luis Marquinez
  • 4César Haydar
  • 20Milton Casco
  • 31Xavi Rios
  • 80Juan Zapata
  • 19Juan Manuel Rengifo
  • 13Nicolás Rodríguez
  • 29Andrés Sarmiento
  • 9Alfredo Morelos

Independiente Medellin

4-4-2

Goalkeeper

  • 1Salvador Ichazo

Defence

  • 26Esneyder Mena
  • 39Luis Escorcia
  • 19Alfonso Simarra
  • 18Frank Fabra

Midfield

  • 11Yony González
  • 16Halam Loboa
  • 6Didier Moreno
  • 20John Edwin Montaño

Attack

  • 21Agustín Martegani
  • 32Carlos Lucumi
Substitutes (9)
  • 25Eder Chaux
  • 5Joaquin Varela
  • 4Kevin Mantilla
  • 34Keiner Klinger
  • 10Daniel Cataño
  • 31Diego Moreno
  • 14Baldomero Perlaza
  • 9Jeison Medina
  • 17Geronimo Mancilla

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.743.694.31

Double chance

1XX212
1.201.991.23

Draw no bet

12
1.323.16

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.672.08

1st half

1X2
2.272.254.49

2nd half

1X2
2.092.594.13

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 12.6614.138.2
HT X4.695.709.36
HT 221.714.87.14

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.5513.32.55

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0311.3
1.51.223.96
2.51.742.05
3.52.801.39
4.55.321.13
5.510.01.04
6.519.11.01
7.550.5–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.038.10
1.251.095.40
1.751.233.43
21.302.99
2.251.532.35
2.751.921.82
32.201.60
3.252.501.47
3.753.291.25
44.451.14
4.254.811.12
4.756.601.05
57.901.04

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-1.52.961.36
-1.252.631.43
-12.321.57
-0.751.921.81
-0.51.742.05
-0.251.502.40
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-3.510.31.02
-310.01.01
-2.757.401.05
-2.55.931.09
-2.255.551.10
-25.081.12
-1.753.661.24
01.303.23
+0.251.243.68
+0.51.224.25
+0.751.105.58
+11.019.00
+1.51.039.10

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
6.51.672.10

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
6.51.085.27
7.51.273.26
8.51.532.34
9.51.911.81
10.52.451.48
11.53.311.27
12.54.521.12
13.56.941.02
23 more lines
LineOverUnder
61.017.12
6.251.075.36
6.751.095.02
71.104.78
7.251.173.88
7.751.273.16
81.312.98
8.251.402.62
8.751.562.25
91.722.06
9.251.741.97
9.751.961.76
102.101.65
10.252.221.57
10.752.551.43
112.841.34
11.253.001.30
11.753.551.21
124.151.15
12.254.341.13
12.755.291.07
136.511.03
13.256.731.02

Next Primera A matches

26 OctDeportes Tolima – Deportivo Pasto
26 OctJaguares – Llaneros
27 OctSanta Fe – Bucaramanga
27 OctCucuta – Águilas Doradas
28 OctChico – Junior
28 OctOnce Caldas – Alianza Valledupar

All Primera A fixtures and the table

Latest Primera A results

25 OctAlianza Valledupar 1-0 Internacional de Bogota
25 OctFortaleza FC 1-1 Deportivo Cali
25 OctOnce Caldas 1-1 Deportivo Pereira
24 OctAmerica de Cali 3-1 Cucuta
24 OctJunior 1-0 Águilas Doradas
23 OctChico 1-0 Bucaramanga