Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe• Primera A, Colombia

#11.8:0.601:30Tomorrow · Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin1.4:0.8#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.60BTNX4.25BTN26.00B365Margin at best2.7%Books9Markets86Rating58 · 42Exp. goals L52.3

Price board · 1X2captured 29 Oct 08:15 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	1.60	4.30	5.90	2.7%
Pinnacle	1.57	4.03	5.83	5.7%
Bet365	1.55	4.00	6.00	6.2%
Dafabet	1.55	4.10	5.60	6.8%
1xBet	1.50	4.10	5.93	7.9%
BetVictor	1.53	4.00	5.50	8.5%
Marathonbet	1.49	4.10	5.85	8.6%
William Hill	1.55	3.80	5.50	9.0%
SBO	1.50	3.65	4.84	14.7%
Best of all books	1.60	4.30	6.00	2.4%
Average	1.54	4.01	5.66	7.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Atletico NacionalSanta Fe

Last 10#1Table position#72.11Points per game1.5312Form pts · last 5101.8Goals for · last 51.40.6Goals against · last 50.856Attack rating4457Defence rating4345Form rating5562H2H rating3876Goals model2458Overall rating42

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 27 Oct 00:01 UTC

Atletico Nacional

5W 3D 2L · goals 17:10 · per match 1.7 for, 1.0 against

25 Oct	H	Independiente Medellin	2-1	W
23 Oct	H	Deportivo Pasto	3-0	W
20 Oct	A	Cucuta	0-1	L
17 Oct	A	Chico	4-1	W
15 Oct	H	Independiente Medellin	3-2	W
8 Oct	H	Deportes Tolima	0-0	D
1 Oct	H	Junior	3-1	W
26 Sep	H	Chapecoense-sc	1-1	D
25 Sep	H	Millonarios	1-1	D
21 Sep	A	Llaneros	0-2	L

Santa Fe

5W 2D 3L · goals 14:11 · per match 1.4 for, 1.1 against

27 Oct	H	Bucaramanga	2-1	W
22 Oct	H	Jaguares	2-1	W
18 Oct	A	Llaneros	0-1	L
11 Oct	H	Fortaleza FC	2-2	D
6 Oct	A	Independiente Medellin	1-0	W
29 Sep	A	Deportivo Pereira	2-1	W
25 Sep	A	Union Magdalena	1-1	D
23 Sep	H	Deportivo Cali	0-1	L
19 Sep	A	Alianza Valledupar	4-1	W
15 Sep	A	Vasco DA Gama	0-2	L

Head to head

16Atletico Nacional wins

9draws

6Santa Fe wins

31 meetings · goals 47:25 · last 10: 5W 4D 1L for Atletico Nacional

26 Feb 2026Primera A	Primera A	Santa Fe1-2Atletico Nacional
26 Jul 2025Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional1-1Santa Fe
13 Jun 2025Primera A	Primera A	Santa Fe1-2Atletico Nacional
8 Jun 2025Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional1-2Santa Fe
13 Feb 2025Primera A	Primera A	Santa Fe2-2Atletico Nacional
9 Dec 2024Primera A	Primera A	Santa Fe0-3Atletico Nacional
21 Nov 2024Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional5-0Santa Fe
5 Nov 2024Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional1-1Santa Fe
13 Apr 2024Primera A	Primera A	Santa Fe0-0Atletico Nacional
21 Sep 2023Primera A	Primera A	Atletico Nacional3-0Santa Fe

Primera A tableAperturaupdated 29 Oct 05:10 UTC

In the Primera A table, Atletico Nacional sit 1st with 40 points from 19 games, while Santa Fe are 7th with 29 points from 19.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	35:15	+20	40
2	Junior	19	11	2	6	31:24	+7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29:25	+4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	3	6	25:15	+10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31:22	+9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27:17	+10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	8	4	29:22	+7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	7	7	5	26:26	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	7	6	6	20:16	+4	27
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31:23	+8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26:24	+2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	7	5	7	20:25	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	5	8	6	26:20	+6	23
14	Llaneros	19	4	10	5	17:20	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22:27	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20:33	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	3	8	8	13:27	-14	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15:32	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	3	7	9	22:35	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	1	7	11	15:32	-17	10

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg160%1.54X23%3.99216%5.67

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 2.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.41 → 1.54 +9.2%X4.47 → 3.99 -10.7%26.80 → 5.67 -16.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.81	2.02	4.8%
Bet365	1.80	2.00	5.6%
Betano	1.78	2.00	6.2%
1xBet	1.74	2.01	7.2%
Marathonbet	1.74	2.01	7.2%
BetVictor	1.73	1.95	9.1%
Best of all books	1.81	2.02	4.8%
Average	1.77	2.00	6.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betano	1.83	1.88	7.8%
William Hill	1.80	1.91	7.9%
1xBet	1.82	1.88	8.1%
BetVictor	1.80	1.90	8.2%
Marathonbet	1.82	1.86	8.7%
Bet365	1.83	1.83	9.3%
Best of all books	1.83	1.91	7.0%
Average	1.82	1.88	8.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Atletico Nacional 45%Draw 45%Santa Fe 10%

The statistical model rates Atletico Nacional at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Santa Fe at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.54 | 3.99 | 5.67, which imply roughly 64.9% for a Atletico Nacional win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera A table: Atletico Nacional are 1st (40 pts, 35-15 goals), Santa Fe 7th (29 pts, 29-22).

Over their last five matches, Atletico Nacional averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; Santa Fe averaged 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Atletico Nacional or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.54	4.01	5.66

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.12	2.38	1.19

Draw no bet

1	2
1.20	4.20

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.82	1.88

1st half

1	X	2
2.05	2.31	5.45

2nd half

1	X	2
1.84	2.64	5.17

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.27	16.2	49.1
HT X	4.27	6.06	11.8
HT 2	22.4	16.9	9.50

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.45	12.9	2.99

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	10.5
1.5	1.22	3.83
2.5	1.77	2.00
3.5	2.85	1.37
4.5	5.44	1.12
5.5	9.92	1.05
6.5	19.2	1.01
7.5	50.5	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	7.80
1.25	1.09	5.30
1.75	1.25	3.36
2	1.34	2.96
2.25	1.55	2.31
2.75	1.94	1.78
3	2.27	1.56
3.25	2.51	1.46
3.75	3.35	1.25
4	4.55	1.13
4.25	4.96	1.11
4.75	6.80	1.04
5	8.60	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.95	1.35
-1.5	2.48	1.48
-1.25	2.17	1.61
-1	1.92	1.84
-0.75	1.65	2.11
-0.5	1.54	2.40

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	8.65	1.02
-3	8.90	1.01
-2.75	6.05	1.09
-2.5	4.62	1.15
-2.25	4.22	1.17
-2	3.93	1.21
-0.25	1.34	3.00
0	1.17	4.42
+0.25	1.13	4.96
+0.5	1.14	5.75
+0.75	1.03	7.50
+1	1.01	10.5

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
6.5	2.00	1.75

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.07	5.41
7.5	1.26	3.36
8.5	1.49	2.40
9.5	1.84	1.86
10.5	2.37	1.51
11.5	3.17	1.29
12.5	4.40	1.13
13.5	6.72	1.02

21 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.08	5.16
7	1.09	4.92
7.25	1.16	3.98
7.75	1.26	3.22
8	1.29	3.04
8.25	1.39	2.67
8.75	1.54	2.29
9	1.61	2.16
9.25	1.72	2.00
9.75	1.93	1.78
10	2.06	1.68
10.25	2.18	1.60
10.75	2.50	1.44
11	2.78	1.36
11.25	2.93	1.32
11.75	3.46	1.22
12	4.04	1.16
12.25	4.22	1.14
12.75	5.13	1.08
13	6.29	1.04
13.25	6.50	1.03

Next Primera A matches

29 Oct	America de Cali – Fortaleza FC
30 Oct	Deportivo Pereira – Jaguares
31 Oct	Bucaramanga – Deportivo Pasto
31 Oct	Llaneros – Junior
1 Nov	Independiente Medellin – Alianza Valledupar

All Primera A fixtures and the table

Latest Primera A results

29 Oct	Internacional de Bogota 3-1 Independiente Medellin
28 Oct	Once Caldas 1-0 Alianza Valledupar
28 Oct	Chico 1-1 Junior
27 Oct	Cucuta 0-2 Águilas Doradas
27 Oct	Santa Fe 2-1 Bucaramanga
26 Oct	Jaguares 1-0 Llaneros