Italy vs France• UEFA Nations League, World

#22.0:1.319:45Today · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan1.8:0.5#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

14.40DAFX3.95DAF22.07PINMargin5.5%Books10Markets86Rating45 · 55Exp. goals L52.8

Price board · 1X2captured 12 Nov 08:08 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	3.55	3.85	2.07	2.5%
1xBet	3.72	3.67	2.06	2.7%
Pinnacle	3.65	3.66	2.07	3.0%
Marathonbet	3.80	3.72	2.00	3.2%
Dafabet	4.40	3.95	1.79	3.9%
Bet365	3.50	3.60	2.00	6.3%
Betfair	3.60	3.50	2.00	6.3%
BetVictor	3.40	3.70	2.00	6.4%
William Hill	3.25	3.50	2.00	9.3%
SBO	3.74	3.39	1.71	14.7%
Best of all books	4.40	3.95	2.07	-3.6%
Average	3.66	3.65	1.97	5.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ItalyFrance

Last 10#2Table position#11.75Points per game2.5010Form pts · last 5102.0Goals for · last 51.81.3Goals against · last 50.553Attack rating4729Defence rating7141Form rating5950H2H rating500Goals model10045Overall rating55

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 12 Nov 00:01 UTC

Italy

6W 2D 2L · goals 16:10 · per match 1.6 for, 1.0 against

5 Oct	H	Türkiye	3-1	W
2 Oct	A	France	1-1	D
28 Sep	A	Türkiye	4-1	W
25 Sep	H	Belgium	0-2	L
7 Jun	A	Greece	1-0	W
3 Jun	A	Luxembourg	1-0	W
31 Mar	A	Bosnia & Herzegovina	1-1	D
26 Mar	H	Northern Ireland	2-0	W
16 Nov	H	Norway	1-4	L
13 Nov	A	Moldova	2-0	W

France

7W 1D 2L · goals 21:11 · per match 2.1 for, 1.1 against

5 Oct	H	Belgium	4-1	W
2 Oct	H	Italy	1-1	D
28 Sep	A	Belgium	1-0	W
25 Sep	A	Türkiye	1-0	W
18 Jul	H	England	4-6	L
14 Jul	H	Spain	0-2	L
9 Jul	H	Morocco	2-0	W
4 Jul	A	Paraguay	1-0	W
30 Jun	H	Sweden	3-0	W
26 Jun	A	Norway	4-1	W

Head to head

2Italy wins

1draws

2France wins

5 meetings · goals 8:8 · last 5: 2W 1D 2L for Italy

2 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League	UEFA Nations League	France1-1Italy
17 Nov 2024UEFA Nations League	UEFA Nations League	Italy1-3France
6 Sep 2024UEFA Nations League	UEFA Nations League	France1-3Italy
1 Jun 2018Friendlies	Friendlies	France3-1Italy
17 Jun 2008Euro Championship	Euro Championship	France0-2Italy

UEFA Nations League tableLeague A - Group Aupdated 12 Nov 00:20 UTC

In the UEFA Nations League table, Italy sit 2nd with 7 points from 4 games, while France are 1st with 10 points from 4.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	France	4	3	1	0	7:2	+5	10
2	Italy	4	2	1	1	8:5	+3	7
3	Belgium	4	2	0	2	6:5	+1	6
4	Türkiye	4	0	0	4	2:11	-9	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg126%3.66X26%3.65248%1.97

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.5% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.98 → 3.66 -8.0%X3.75 → 3.65 -2.7%21.82 → 1.97 +8.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.72	2.24	2.8%
Pinnacle	1.70	2.23	3.7%
Betano	1.70	2.22	3.9%
Marathonbet	1.69	2.21	4.4%
Betfair	1.65	2.20	6.1%
SBO	1.62	2.25	6.2%
Bet365	1.67	2.15	6.4%
BetVictor	1.62	2.12	8.9%
Best of all books	1.72	2.25	2.6%
Average	1.67	2.20	5.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.53	2.45	6.2%
Betano	1.57	2.30	7.2%
1xBet	1.54	2.35	7.5%
Bet365	1.57	2.25	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.57	2.25	8.1%
William Hill	1.57	2.25	8.1%
BetVictor	1.53	2.30	8.8%
Best of all books	1.57	2.45	4.5%
Average	1.55	2.31	7.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Italy 10%Draw 45%France 45%

The statistical model rates Italy at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and France at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.66 | 3.65 | 1.97, which imply roughly 27.4% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the UEFA Nations League table: Italy are 2nd (7 pts, 8-5 goals), France 1st (10 pts, 7-2).

Over their last five matches, Italy averaged 2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game; France averaged 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or France.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.66	3.65	1.97

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.84	1.27	1.26

Draw no bet

1	2
2.56	1.45

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.55	2.31

1st half

1	X	2
3.86	2.35	2.45

2nd half

1	X	2
3.57	2.64	2.26

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	6.02	13.9	21.0
HT X	8.81	6.03	5.34
HT 2	32.7	13.4	2.95

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.35	13.5	1.67

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	12.1
1.5	1.20	4.38
2.5	1.67	2.20
3.5	2.61	1.47
4.5	4.80	1.16
5.5	9.08	1.05
6.5	15.3	1.02
7.5	23.2	1.01

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	9.75
1.25	1.10	5.62
1.75	1.23	3.89
2	1.30	3.38
2.25	1.46	2.64
2.75	1.81	2.00
3	2.07	1.74
3.25	2.26	1.61
3.75	2.93	1.37
4	3.90	1.23
4.25	4.15	1.17
4.75	5.38	1.10
5	7.32	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
0	2.65	1.47
+0.25	2.12	1.70
+0.5	1.88	1.93
+0.75	1.68	2.20
+1	1.47	2.73
+1.25	1.37	3.01

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	13.0	1.01
-1.5	7.63	1.06
-1.25	6.70	1.06
-1	6.43	1.09
-0.75	4.38	1.17
-0.5	3.65	1.29
-0.25	3.10	1.35
+1.5	1.30	3.49
+1.75	1.21	4.17
+2	1.11	5.92
+2.25	1.10	6.12
+2.5	1.07	6.92
+2.75	1.06	6.85
+3.5	1.01	12.3

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
2.5	1.31	3.33
3	1.44	2.74
3.5	1.76	2.01
4	2.02	1.79
4.5	2.39	1.55
5.5	3.25	1.31
6.5	4.80	1.16

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
3.5	1.01	13.5
4.5	1.02	11.3
5.5	1.04	8.13
6.5	1.12	5.11
7.5	1.27	3.34
8.5	1.53	2.36
9.5	1.90	1.84
10.5	2.44	1.50
11.5	3.24	1.27
12.5	4.71	1.14
13.5	6.67	1.07
14.5	9.33	1.03
15.5	12.8	1.02
16.5	12.0	1.02
17.5	13.5	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7.75	1.28	3.08
8.25	1.41	2.56
8.75	1.56	2.21
9	1.71	2.10
9.25	1.77	1.94
9.75	1.98	1.71
10	2.19	1.66
10.25	2.29	1.52
10.75	2.63	1.39

Next UEFA Nations League matches

12 Nov	Armenia – Cyprus
12 Nov	Türkiye – Belgium
12 Nov	Czechia – Spain
12 Nov	England – Croatia
12 Nov	Albania – Finland
12 Nov	San Marino – Belarus

All UEFA Nations League fixtures and the table