CD Motagua vs CD Marathon• Liga Nacional, Honduras

#31.4:0.42-0FT01/11 · Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa1.4:1.2#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.08DAFX3.30B36523.45DAFMargin at best7.4%Books9Markets46Rating54 · 46 levelExp. goals L52.2

Price board · 1X2captured 1 Nov 18:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.08	3.25	3.45	7.8%
BetVictor	2.05	3.30	3.30	9.4%
Betano	2.05	3.15	3.30	10.8%
1xBet	2.03	3.20	3.28	11.0%
Betfair	2.00	3.30	3.25	11.1%
Bet365	2.00	3.30	3.20	11.6%
Pinnacle	2.03	3.05	3.36	11.8%
Marathonbet	2.01	3.20	3.20	12.3%
William Hill	2.05	3.00	3.30	12.4%
Best of all books	2.08	3.30	3.45	7.4%
Average	2.03	3.19	3.29	10.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

CD MotaguaCD Marathon

Last 10#3Table position#42.08Points per game1.8310Form pts · last 591.4Goals for · last 51.40.4Goals against · last 51.250Attack rating5075Defence rating2560Form rating4038H2H rating6258Goals model4254Overall rating46

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 30 Oct 09:01 UTC

CD Motagua

5W 3D 2L · goals 11:4 · per match 1.1 for, 0.4 against

30 Oct	A	LD Alajuelense	1-2	L
25 Oct	H	Juticalpa	2-0	W
23 Oct	H	LD Alajuelense	0-0	D
17 Oct	A	Platense FC	2-0	W
10 Oct	H	Atlético Choloma	2-1	W
20 Sep	A	Real Espana	0-1	L
17 Sep	A	Alianza	0-0	D
13 Sep	H	Génesis	1-0	W
10 Sep	H	Alianza	3-0	W
5 Sep	A	Atletico Independiente	0-0	D

CD Marathon

4W 4D 2L · goals 17:12 · per match 1.7 for, 1.2 against

28 Oct	A	Alianza	0-0	D
25 Oct	A	Atletico Independiente	2-2	D
21 Oct	H	Alianza	2-1	W
15 Oct	H	Olancho	2-1	W
11 Oct	A	Lobos Upnfm	0-0	D
21 Sep	A	Juticalpa	2-3	L
18 Sep	A	LD Alajuelense	1-3	L
13 Sep	H	CD Olimpia	1-0	W
11 Sep	H	LD Alajuelense	2-2	D
6 Sep	H	Estrella Roja	5-0	W

Head to head

33CD Motagua wins

26draws

21CD Marathon wins

80 meetings · goals 117:90 · last 10: 0W 6D 4L for CD Motagua

24 May 2026Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Motagua0-0CD Marathon
22 May 2026Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Marathon1-1CD Motagua
10 Apr 2026Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Marathon1-0CD Motagua
15 Feb 2026Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Motagua1-1CD Marathon
25 Oct 2025Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Marathon1-0CD Motagua
18 Aug 2025Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Motagua3-3CD Marathon
30 Mar 2025Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Marathon1-1CD Motagua
31 Jan 2025Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Motagua2-2CD Marathon
6 Nov 2024Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Marathon2-1CD Motagua
1 Sep 2024Liga Nacional	Liga Nacional	CD Motagua0-1CD Marathon

Liga Nacional tableAperturaupdated 2 Nov 03:10 UTC

In the Liga Nacional table, CD Motagua sit 3rd with 25 points from 12 games, while CD Marathon are 4th with 22 points from 12.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	12	9	2	1	26:8	+18	29
2	Real Espana	12	8	3	1	22:10	+12	27
3	CD Motagua	12	8	1	3	19:9	+10	25
4	CD Marathon	12	6	4	2	18:11	+7	22
5	Estrella Roja	12	4	4	4	21:22	-1	16
6	Lobos Upnfm	12	4	3	5	15:16	-1	15
7	Olancho	11	2	7	2	11:11	0	13
8	Atlético Choloma	12	4	1	7	12:15	-3	13
9	Génesis	12	3	2	7	15:16	-1	11
10	Atletico Independiente	12	2	5	5	11:21	-10	11
11	Platense FC	11	2	2	7	11:25	-14	8
12	Juticalpa	12	2	0	10	11:28	-17	6

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg144%2.03X28%3.19227%3.29

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.05 → 2.03 -1.0%X3.25 → 3.19 -1.8%23.19 → 3.29 +3.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.85	1.95	5.3%
Pinnacle	1.97	1.72	8.9%
BetVictor	1.88	1.79	9.1%
1xBet	1.89	1.78	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.89	1.78	9.1%
Betano	1.90	1.75	9.8%
Best of all books	1.97	1.95	2.0%
Average	1.90	1.79	8.4%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.80	1.91	7.9%
BetVictor	1.70	2.00	8.8%
1xBet	1.72	1.96	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.72	1.93	10.0%
Best of all books	1.80	2.00	5.6%
Average	1.73	1.95	8.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

CD Motagua 45%Draw 45%CD Marathon 10%

The statistical model rated CD Motagua at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and CD Marathon at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.03 | 3.19 | 3.29, which imply roughly 49.3% for a CD Motagua win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga Nacional table: CD Motagua are 3rd (25 pts, 19-9 goals), CD Marathon 4th (22 pts, 18-11).

Over their last five matches, CD Motagua averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game; CD Marathon averaged 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : CD Motagua or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.03	3.19	3.29

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.27	1.65	1.27

Draw no bet

1	2
1.49	2.44

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.74	1.95

1st half

1	X	2
2.63	2.09	3.89

2nd half

1	X	2
2.42	2.38	3.51

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.27	14.7	32.7
HT X	5.17	5.10	7.37
HT 2	23.7	15.5	5.40

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.74	9.20	2.30

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	10.0
1.5	1.27	3.22
2.5	1.90	1.80
3.5	3.27	1.27
4.5	5.70	1.09
5.5	17.0	1.02

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	7.70
1.25	1.15	4.70
1.75	1.34	2.80
2	1.45	2.44
2.25	1.69	2.00
2.75	2.17	1.57
3	2.61	1.39
3.25	2.89	1.33
3.75	3.96	1.17
4	5.45	1.08

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	3.01	1.32
-0.75	2.35	1.50
-0.5	2.01	1.70
-0.25	1.77	1.93
0	1.50	2.39
+0.25	1.37	2.78

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.87	1.05
-2.25	6.80	1.10
-2	7.20	1.05
-1.75	4.78	1.16
-1.5	3.81	1.21
-1.25	3.43	1.25
+0.5	1.31	3.18
+0.75	1.19	3.97
+1	1.09	5.98
+1.25	1.12	6.00
+1.5	1.07	6.87

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
10.5	1.96	1.82

Latest Liga Nacional results

2 Nov	Olancho 4-1 Platense FC
1 Nov	Atlético Choloma 0-3 CD Olimpia
31 Oct	Real Espana 3-1 Juticalpa
31 Oct	Lobos Upnfm 4-3 Génesis
31 Oct	Estrella Roja 3-1 Atletico Independiente
25 Oct	Lobos Upnfm 0-1 CD Olimpia