Sheger Ketema vs Negelle Arsi• Premier League, Ethiopia

#70.8:0.812:00Today1.3:0.3#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.20BVCX2.75B36522.52PINMargin at best7.3%Books9Markets38Rating40 · 60Exp. goals L51.6

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Oct 06:47 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
BetVictor	3.20	2.70	2.45	9.1%
Dafabet	3.15	2.65	2.48	9.8%
Pinnacle	3.19	2.57	2.52	9.9%
Betano	3.05	2.62	2.50	11.0%
1xBet	3.04	2.73	2.41	11.0%
Bet365	3.00	2.75	2.40	11.4%
Betfair	3.00	2.75	2.40	11.4%
Marathonbet	3.04	2.63	2.42	12.2%
William Hill	3.00	2.50	2.45	14.1%
Best of all books	3.20	2.75	2.52	7.3%
Average	3.07	2.66	2.45	11.0%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Sheger KetemaNegelle Arsi

Last 10#7Table position#21.25Points per game2.008Form pts · last 580.8Goals for · last 51.30.8Goals against · last 50.338Attack rating6325Defence rating7538Form rating6250H2H rating500Goals model040Overall rating60

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 29 Oct 09:30 UTC

Sheger Ketema

4W 3D 3L · goals 8:6 · per match 0.8 for, 0.6 against

26 Oct	A	Kedus Giorgis	2-2	D
20 Oct	A	Mebrat Hayl	0-1	L
16 Oct	A	Adama Kenema	0-0	D
11 Oct	A	Ethiopia Bunna	1-0	W
2 Jul	A	Suhul Shire	2-0	W
28 Jun	H	Mekelakeya	2-0	W
20 Jun	A	Dire Dawa Kenema	0-2	L
16 Jun	H	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	0-0	D
29 May	A	Fasil Ketema	1-0	W
20 May	H	Mekelle Kenema	0-1	L

Negelle Arsi

4W 5D 1L · goals 10:6 · per match 1.0 for, 0.6 against

26 Oct	H	Adama Kenema	1-0	W
21 Oct	A	Ethiopia Bunna	3-0	W
16 Oct	A	Mebrat Hayl	0-0	D
10 Oct	A	Kedus Giorgis	1-1	D
1 Jul	A	Mekelle Kenema	0-3	L
26 Jun	H	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2-0	W
20 Jun	A	Sidama Bunna	1-1	D
15 Jun	H	Awassa Kenema	2-1	W
4 Jun	A	Welayta Dicha	0-0	D
21 May	H	Suhul Shire	0-0	D

Head to head

0Sheger Ketema wins

2draws

0Negelle Arsi wins

2 meetings · goals 3:3 · last 2: 0W 2D 0L for Sheger Ketema

13 Apr 2026Premier League	Premier League	Sheger Ketema1-1Negelle Arsi
2 Dec 2025Premier League	Premier League	Negelle Arsi2-2Sheger Ketema

Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 30 Oct 09:40 UTC

In the Premier League table, Sheger Ketema sit 7th with 5 points from 4 games, while Negelle Arsi are 2nd with 8 points from 4.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Mekelakeya	4	3	0	1	5:2	+3	9
2	Negelle Arsi	4	2	2	0	5:1	+4	8
3	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	4	2	2	0	3:1	+2	8
4	Mebrat Hayl	4	2	1	1	2:1	+1	7
5	Bahardar	3	2	0	1	4:2	+2	6
6	Welayta Dicha	4	1	2	1	8:4	+4	5
7	Sheger Ketema	4	1	2	1	3:3	0	5
8	Adama Kenema	4	1	2	1	2:2	0	5
9	Halaba Ketema	4	1	2	1	3:8	-5	5
10	Ethiopian Medhin	3	1	1	1	4:4	0	4
11	Hadiya Hosaena	3	1	1	1	2:2	0	4
12	Kedus Giorgis	4	0	3	1	5:6	-1	3
13	Ethiopia Bunna	4	1	0	3	2:6	-4	3
14	Awassa Kenema	3	0	2	1	2:3	-1	2
15	Fasil Ketema	3	0	2	1	1:2	-1	2
16	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
17	Gamo Chencha	3	0	1	2	0:3	-3	1
18	Sidama Bunna	1	0	0	1	0:1	-1	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg129%3.07X34%2.66237%2.45

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.04 → 3.07 +1.0%X2.75 → 2.66 -3.3%22.40 → 2.45 +2.1%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	3.25	1.33	6.0%
BetVictor	3.25	1.30	7.7%
Pinnacle	3.19	1.30	8.3%
Betfair	3.00	1.33	8.5%
1xBet	2.92	1.31	10.6%
Marathonbet	3.05	1.28	10.9%
Best of all books	3.25	1.33	6.0%
Average	3.11	1.31	8.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.25	1.57	8.1%
BetVictor	2.40	1.50	8.3%
William Hill	2.38	1.50	8.7%
1xBet	2.34	1.51	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.39	1.47	9.9%
Best of all books	2.40	1.57	5.4%
Average	2.35	1.51	8.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Sheger Ketema 10%Draw 45%Negelle Arsi 45%

The statistical model rates Sheger Ketema at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Negelle Arsi at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.07 | 2.66 | 2.45, which imply roughly 37.6% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Sheger Ketema are 7th (5 pts, 3-3 goals), Negelle Arsi 2nd (8 pts, 5-1).

Over their last five matches, Sheger Ketema averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Negelle Arsi averaged 1.3 scored and 0.3 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Negelle Arsi and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.07	2.66	2.45

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.45	1.30	1.38

Draw no bet

1	2
2.08	1.65

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.35	1.51

1st half

1	X	2
4.04	1.78	3.29

2nd half

1	X	2
3.60	1.95	3.00

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	5.34	16.0	40.2
HT X	6.47	3.55	5.39
HT 2	45.2	15.8	4.08

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.43	4.88	2.01

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.11	5.30
1.5	1.66	2.07
2.5	3.11	1.31
3.5	6.79	1.06
4.5	15.0	1.02

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.13	4.53
1	1.20	3.77
1.25	1.44	2.50
1.75	1.88	1.79
2	2.29	1.52
2.25	2.66	1.39
2.75	3.79	1.19
3	5.45	1.09
3.25	5.90	1.07
3.75	8.35	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	3.10	1.31
-0.25	2.56	1.42
0	2.09	1.64
+0.25	1.69	2.04
+0.5	1.49	2.45
+0.75	1.31	3.01

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	7.65	1.02
-1.25	7.03	1.04
-1	6.43	1.06
-0.75	3.90	1.18
+1	1.14	4.52
+1.25	1.10	5.10
+1.5	1.08	5.68
+1.75	1.02	7.70

Latest Premier League results

27 Oct	Ethiopian Medhin 1-3 Mekelakeya
26 Oct	Gamo Chencha 0-0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
26 Oct	Negelle Arsi 1-0 Adama Kenema
26 Oct	Kedus Giorgis 2-2 Sheger Ketema
22 Oct	Welayta Dicha 1-3 Bahardar
22 Oct	Kedus Giorgis 1-1 Adama Kenema