Tapachula vs Deportiva Venados• Primera Premier, Mexico

#171.2:2.41-4FTToday1.8:2.6#14

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

15.60DAFX4.20B36521.53BTNMargin at best7.0%Books9Markets53Rating41 · 59Exp. goals L54.0

Price board · 1X2captured 19 Oct 21:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	5.60	4.20	1.49	8.8%
Betano	5.30	4.00	1.53	9.2%
BetVictor	5.50	4.10	1.50	9.2%
Betfair	5.00	4.20	1.50	10.5%
1xBet	5.50	4.05	1.47	10.9%
William Hill	5.50	3.80	1.50	11.2%
Bet365	4.75	4.20	1.50	11.5%
Marathonbet	5.25	4.05	1.46	12.2%
Pinnacle	5.04	3.73	1.45	15.6%
Best of all books	5.60	4.20	1.53	7.0%
Average	5.27	4.04	1.49	10.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

TapachulaDeportiva Venados

Last 10#17Table position#140.50Points per game0.833Form pts · last 551.2Goals for · last 51.82.4Goals against · last 52.640Attack rating6052Defence rating4843Form rating570H2H rating10040Goals model6041Overall rating59

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 19 Oct 01:00 UTC

Tapachula

3W 1D 6L · goals 13:19 · per match 1.3 for, 1.9 against

11 Oct	A	Montañeses	1-2	L
3 Oct	H	Chapulineros	2-3	L
19 Sep	A	Pioneros de Cancún	1-5	L
12 Sep	H	Inter Playa del Carmen	2-0	W
6 Sep	A	Celaya	0-2	L
29 Aug	H	Racing de Veracruz	0-4	L
19 Apr	H	Tritons Vallarta	1-1	D
15 Apr	A	Tritons Vallarta	0-1	L
12 Apr	H	Mexicali FC	4-0	W
28 Mar	A	Cañoneros Marina	2-1	W

Deportiva Venados

3W 5D 2L · goals 17:17 · per match 1.7 for, 1.7 against

10 Oct	H	Pioneros de Cancún	1-4	L
3 Oct	A	Inter Playa del Carmen	1-3	L
26 Sep	H	Celaya	2-2	D
19 Sep	A	Racing de Veracruz	3-3	D
12 Sep	H	Jaguares de Chiapas	2-0	W
30 Aug	A	Montañeses	1-1	D
10 May	A	Durango	0-0	D
6 May	H	Durango	2-1	W
3 May	A	Real Apodaca	4-2	W
30 Apr	H	Real Apodaca	1-1	D

Head to head

0Tapachula wins

0draws

4Deportiva Venados wins

4 meetings · goals 5:11 · last 4: 0W 0D 4L for Tapachula

17 Jan 2026Liga Premier Serie A	Liga Premier Serie A	Tapachula2-3Deportiva Venados
30 Aug 2025Liga Premier Serie A	Liga Premier Serie A	Deportiva Venados3-1Tapachula
26 Jan 2025Liga Premier Serie A	Liga Premier Serie A	Tapachula1-3Deportiva Venados
22 Sep 2024Liga Premier Serie A	Liga Premier Serie A	Deportiva Venados2-1Tapachula

Primera Premier tableRegular Seasonupdated 20 Oct 01:00 UTC

In the Primera Premier table, Tapachula sit 17th with 3 points from 6 games, while Deportiva Venados are 14th with 5 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Irapuato	7	7	0	0	16:4	+12	21
2	Racing de Veracruz	7	5	2	0	19:7	+12	17
3	Pioneros de Cancún	7	5	1	1	18:7	+11	16
4	Reboceros La Piedad	7	5	0	2	13:11	+2	15
5	Tigres de Alica	8	4	2	2	13:7	+6	14
6	Celaya	7	4	1	2	12:7	+5	13
7	Jaguares de Chiapas	7	3	2	2	6:6	0	11
8	Montañeses	8	3	1	4	13:15	-2	10
9	Zacatepec 1948	7	3	1	3	8:10	-2	10
10	Los Cabos United	7	3	0	4	7:9	-2	9
11	Chapulineros	7	2	2	3	8:13	-5	8
12	Lobos ULMX	7	2	1	4	7:11	-4	7
13	Cordobés	7	2	1	4	5:9	-4	7
14	Deportiva Venados	6	1	2	3	10:14	-4	5
15	H2O Purepechas	6	1	1	4	3:7	-4	4
16	Inter Playa del Carmen	7	1	1	5	5:12	-7	4
17	Tapachula	6	1	0	5	6:16	-10	3
18	Tritons Vallarta	6	0	2	4	3:7	-4	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg118%4.94X23%3.99259%1.52

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.97 → 5.27 +32.7%X3.83 → 4.04 +5.5%21.67 → 1.49 -10.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
BetVictor	1.66	2.05	9.0%
1xBet	1.64	2.08	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.64	2.08	9.1%
Betano	1.62	2.10	9.3%
Pinnacle	1.61	2.08	10.2%
Best of all books	1.70	2.10	6.4%
Average	1.64	2.08	8.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.70	2.05	7.6%
BetVictor	1.73	2.00	7.8%
1xBet	1.72	1.96	9.2%
Betano	1.70	1.98	9.3%
Marathonbet	1.72	1.93	10.0%
Best of all books	1.73	2.05	6.6%
Average	1.71	1.98	8.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Tapachula 10%Draw 45%Deportiva Venados 45%

The statistical model rated Tapachula at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Deportiva Venados at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.94 | 3.99 | 1.52, which imply roughly 25.1% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera Premier table: Tapachula are 17th (3 pts, 6-16 goals), Deportiva Venados 14th (5 pts, 10-14).

Over their last five matches, Tapachula averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game; Deportiva Venados averaged 1.8 scored and 2.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Deportiva Venados and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
5.27	4.04	1.49

Double chance

1X	X2	12
2.33	1.13	1.17

Draw no bet

1	2
3.67	1.26

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.71	1.98

1st half

1	X	2
5.21	2.40	1.99

2nd half

1	X	2
5.00	2.72	1.82

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	7.83	15.5	19.9
HT X	10.2	6.44	4.54
HT 2	39.5	15.1	2.40

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.68	14.9	1.49

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	13.0
1.5	1.18	4.01
2.5	1.65	2.08
3.5	2.58	1.41
4.5	4.63	1.14
5.5	8.53	1.04

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1.25	1.07	5.80
1.75	1.21	3.58
2	1.27	3.13
2.25	1.45	2.42
2.75	1.80	1.85
3	2.04	1.65
3.25	2.31	1.50
3.75	3.00	1.30
4	4.00	1.17
4.25	4.13	1.16
4.75	5.60	1.08
5	7.80	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.5	2.30	1.52
+0.75	2.10	1.64
+1	1.86	1.83
+1.25	1.61	2.08
+1.5	1.48	2.35
+1.75	1.34	2.75

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	8.10	1.03
-0.75	5.30	1.09
-0.25	4.61	1.13
0	3.97	1.18
+0.25	2.85	1.33
+2	1.21	3.58
+2.25	1.12	4.75
+2.5	1.14	4.40
+2.75	1.04	6.75
+3	1.02	8.10
+3.5	1.01	8.80

Latest Primera Premier results

11 Oct	Montañeses 2-1 Tapachula
11 Oct	H2O Purepechas 2-0 Lobos ULMX
11 Oct	Irapuato 1-0 Tritons Vallarta
10 Oct	Deportiva Venados 1-4 Pioneros de Cancún
10 Oct	Racing de Veracruz 2-1 Celaya
10 Oct	Cordobés 1-0 Tigres de Alica