Montañeses vs Tapachula• Primera Premier, Mexico

#81.8:2.22-1FT11/101.0:2.8#17

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.77DAFX3.85DAF23.90BFRMargin at best8.1%Books8Markets43Rating63 · 37Exp. goals L53.9

Price board · 1X2captured 11 Oct 15:17 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.77	3.85	3.90	8.1%
BetVictor	1.75	3.75	3.90	9.5%
1xBet	1.73	3.72	3.81	10.9%
Betfair	1.70	3.75	3.90	11.1%
Bet365	1.75	3.60	3.70	11.9%
William Hill	1.75	3.50	3.80	12.0%
Marathonbet	1.71	3.72	3.72	12.2%
Pinnacle	1.71	3.53	3.76	13.4%
Best of all books	1.77	3.85	3.90	8.1%
Average	1.73	3.68	3.81	11.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MontañesesTapachula

Last 10#8Table position#171.25Points per game0.504Form pts · last 531.8Goals for · last 51.02.2Goals against · last 52.864Attack rating3656Defence rating4467Form rating3350H2H rating5085Goals model1563Overall rating37

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 11 Oct 14:41 UTC

Montañeses

3W 2D 5L · goals 17:17 · per match 1.7 for, 1.7 against

3 Oct	A	Pioneros de Cancún	1-2	L
27 Sep	H	Inter Playa del Carmen	3-2	W
20 Sep	A	Celaya	1-2	L
13 Sep	H	Racing de Veracruz	1-3	L
6 Sep	A	Jaguares de Chiapas	2-2	D
30 Aug	H	Deportiva Venados	1-1	D
10 Apr	A	Héroes de Zaci	0-1	L
29 Mar	H	Celaya	5-1	W
21 Mar	A	Chapulineros	2-0	W
15 Mar	H	Racing de Veracruz	1-3	L

Tapachula

3W 1D 6L · goals 13:19 · per match 1.3 for, 1.9 against

11 Oct	A	Montañeses	1-2	L
3 Oct	H	Chapulineros	2-3	L
19 Sep	A	Pioneros de Cancún	1-5	L
12 Sep	H	Inter Playa del Carmen	2-0	W
6 Sep	A	Celaya	0-2	L
29 Aug	H	Racing de Veracruz	0-4	L
19 Apr	H	Tritons Vallarta	1-1	D
15 Apr	A	Tritons Vallarta	0-1	L
12 Apr	H	Mexicali FC	4-0	W
28 Mar	A	Cañoneros Marina	2-1	W

Head to head

2Montañeses wins

0draws

2Tapachula wins

4 meetings · goals 9:7 · last 4: 2W 0D 2L for Montañeses

10 Mar 2026Liga Premier Serie A	Liga Premier Serie A	Tapachula3-1Montañeses
19 Oct 2025Liga Premier Serie A	Liga Premier Serie A	Montañeses2-0Tapachula
23 Feb 2025Liga Premier Serie A	Liga Premier Serie A	Tapachula3-2Montañeses
16 Oct 2024Liga Premier Serie A	Liga Premier Serie A	Montañeses4-1Tapachula

Primera Premier tableRegular Seasonupdated 20 Oct 01:00 UTC

In the Primera Premier table, Montañeses sit 8th with 10 points from 8 games, while Tapachula are 17th with 3 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Irapuato	7	7	0	0	16:4	+12	21
2	Racing de Veracruz	7	5	2	0	19:7	+12	17
3	Pioneros de Cancún	7	5	1	1	18:7	+11	16
4	Reboceros La Piedad	7	5	0	2	13:11	+2	15
5	Tigres de Alica	8	4	2	2	13:7	+6	14
6	Celaya	7	4	1	2	12:7	+5	13
7	Jaguares de Chiapas	7	3	2	2	6:6	0	11
8	Montañeses	8	3	1	4	13:15	-2	10
9	Zacatepec 1948	7	3	1	3	8:10	-2	10
10	Los Cabos United	7	3	0	4	7:9	-2	9
11	Chapulineros	7	2	2	3	8:13	-5	8
12	Lobos ULMX	7	2	1	4	7:11	-4	7
13	Cordobés	7	2	1	4	5:9	-4	7
14	Deportiva Venados	6	1	2	3	10:14	-4	5
15	H2O Purepechas	6	1	1	4	3:7	-4	4
16	Inter Playa del Carmen	7	1	1	5	5:12	-7	4
17	Tapachula	6	1	0	5	6:16	-10	3
18	Tritons Vallarta	6	0	2	4	3:7	-4	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg149%1.86X26%3.42225%3.64

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.85 → 1.73 -6.5%X3.64 → 3.68 +1.1%23.47 → 3.81 +9.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.65	2.20	6.1%
Pinnacle	1.59	2.17	9.0%
BetVictor	1.61	2.13	9.1%
1xBet	1.58	2.18	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.58	2.18	9.2%
Best of all books	1.65	2.20	6.1%
Average	1.60	2.17	8.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
BetVictor	1.57	2.25	8.1%
William Hill	1.57	2.25	8.1%
Betfair	1.50	2.40	8.3%
1xBet	1.55	2.24	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.55	2.20	10.0%
Best of all books	1.57	2.40	5.4%
Average	1.55	2.27	8.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Montañeses 45%Draw 45%Tapachula 10%

The statistical model rated Montañeses at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Tapachula at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.86 | 3.42 | 3.64, which imply roughly 53.8% for a Montañeses win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera Premier table: Montañeses are 8th (10 pts, 13-15 goals), Tapachula 17th (3 pts, 6-16).

Over their last five matches, Montañeses averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Tapachula averaged 1 scored and 2.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Montañeses and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.73	3.68	3.81

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.20	1.91	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
1.35	3.00

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.55	2.27

1st half

1	X	2
2.28	2.33	4.21

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.59	14.8	2.40

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	13.0
1.5	1.15	4.43
2.5	1.60	2.17
3.5	2.48	1.44
4.5	4.58	1.14
5.5	9.00	1.05

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1.75	1.18	3.92
2	1.24	3.39
2.25	1.42	2.55
2.75	1.74	1.94
3	1.96	1.71
3.25	2.21	1.55
3.75	2.92	1.31
4	3.80	1.19
4.25	4.00	1.17

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.91	1.34
-1.25	2.63	1.41
-1	2.32	1.52
-0.75	1.95	1.74
-0.5	1.74	1.98
-0.25	1.54	2.28

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	5.87	1.09
-2.25	5.00	1.17
-2	5.00	1.12
-1.75	3.63	1.25
0	1.34	2.91
+0.25	1.27	3.34
+0.5	1.26	3.70
+0.75	1.13	4.78
+1	1.05	7.27
+1.5	1.01	8.60

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.91	1.80

Latest Primera Premier results

20 Oct	Tapachula 1-4 Deportiva Venados
11 Oct	H2O Purepechas 2-0 Lobos ULMX
11 Oct	Irapuato 1-0 Tritons Vallarta
10 Oct	Deportiva Venados 1-4 Pioneros de Cancún
10 Oct	Racing de Veracruz 2-1 Celaya
10 Oct	Cordobés 1-0 Tigres de Alica