Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite• FKF Premier League, Kenya

#22.0:2.02-1FTToday0.0:1.0#17

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.92DAFX3.10B36524.431XBMargin at best6.9%Books8Markets42Rating56 · 44Exp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 19 Oct 09:16 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.92	3.10	4.20	8.2%
1xBet	1.81	3.02	4.43	10.9%
Betano	1.88	3.00	4.05	11.2%
Pinnacle	1.88	3.01	4.02	11.3%
Betfair	1.83	3.10	4.00	11.9%
Bet365	1.85	3.10	3.90	12.0%
Marathonbet	1.79	3.02	4.30	12.2%
William Hill	1.85	2.90	4.00	13.5%
Best of all books	1.92	3.10	4.43	6.9%
Average	1.85	3.03	4.11	11.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Mara SugarMombasa Elite

Last 10#2Table position#172.00Points per game0.005Form pts · last 5102.0Goals for · last 50.02.0Goals against · last 51.0100Attack rating033Defence rating67100Form rating071H2H rating290Goals model056Overall rating44

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 18 Oct 20:01 UTC

Mara Sugar

4W 3D 3L · goals 9:8 · per match 0.9 for, 0.8 against

11 Oct	A	3K	2-2	D
31 May	A	Murang'a SEAL	1-2	L
27 May	H	GOR Mahia	0-0	D
16 May	H	Mathare United	0-1	L
13 May	H	Shabana	1-0	W
9 May	A	AFC Leopards	1-2	L
24 Apr	A	Tusker	1-0	W
18 Apr	A	Kariobangi Sharks	1-0	W
6 Apr	H	Posta Rangers FC	1-0	W
1 Apr	A	Nairobi United	1-1	D

Mombasa Elite

5W 2D 3L · goals 9:8 · per match 0.9 for, 0.8 against

14 Oct	H	Homeboyz	0-1	L
6 Oct	A	Kariobangi Sharks	2-0	W
1 Oct	H	Kariobangi Sharks	2-1	W
13 Jun	A	Naivas	1-1	D
7 Jun	H	Nzoia Sugar	1-0	W
1 Jun	A	Luanda Villa	0-1	L
27 May	H	3K	0-0	D
24 May	A	Mwatate United	1-0	W
17 May	H	Nairobi City Stars	2-1	W
10 May	A	Talanta	0-3	L

Head to head

3Mara Sugar wins

1draws

2Mombasa Elite wins

6 meetings · goals 9:7 · last 6: 3W 1D 2L for Mara Sugar

16 Mar 2024Super League	Super League	Mombasa Elite0-2Mara Sugar
11 Nov 2023Super League	Super League	Mara Sugar3-2Mombasa Elite
23 Jun 2023Super League	Super League	Mombasa Elite0-0Mara Sugar
11 Mar 2023Super League	Super League	Mara Sugar2-1Mombasa Elite
16 Apr 2022Super League	Super League	Mara Sugar0-1Mombasa Elite
15 Dec 2021Super League	Super League	Mombasa Elite3-2Mara Sugar

FKF Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 19 Oct 17:10 UTC

In the FKF Premier League table, Mara Sugar sit 2nd with 4 points from 2 games, while Mombasa Elite are 17th with 0 points from 2.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	GOR Mahia	2	2	0	0	5:2	+3	6
2	Mara Sugar	2	1	1	0	4:3	+1	4
3	KCB	2	1	1	0	3:2	+1	4
4	Homeboyz	2	1	1	0	2:1	+1	4
5	Shabana	2	1	1	0	1:0	+1	4
6	Murang'a SEAL	2	1	0	1	7:5	+2	3
7	Tusker	1	1	0	0	2:0	+2	3
8	3K	2	0	2	0	3:3	0	2
9	Nairobi United	2	0	2	0	2:2	0	2
10	Bandari	2	0	2	0	1:1	0	2
11	Kenya Police	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
12	Migori Youth	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1
13	AFC Leopards	1	0	1	0	0:0	0	1
14	Mathare United	2	0	1	1	0:1	-1	1
15	APS Bomet	2	0	1	1	0:1	-1	1
16	Ulinzi Stars	2	0	1	1	1:3	-2	1
17	Mombasa Elite	2	0	0	2	1:3	-2	0
18	Posta Rangers FC	2	0	0	2	1:6	-5	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg149%1.85X30%3.03222%4.11

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.68 → 1.85 +10.1%X3.28 → 3.03 -7.6%24.67 → 4.11 -12.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.35	1.57	6.2%
Betfair	2.25	1.57	8.1%
Pinnacle	2.38	1.50	8.7%
1xBet	2.33	1.51	9.1%
Marathonbet	2.33	1.51	9.1%
Betano	2.27	1.52	9.8%
Best of all books	2.38	1.57	5.7%
Average	2.32	1.53	8.5%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	2.10	1.65	8.2%
1xBet	2.09	1.63	9.2%
Marathonbet	2.09	1.61	10.0%
William Hill	2.15	1.57	10.2%
Best of all books	2.15	1.65	7.1%
Average	2.11	1.61	9.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Mara Sugar 45%Draw 45%Mombasa Elite 10%

The statistical model rated Mara Sugar at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Mombasa Elite at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.85 | 3.03 | 4.11, which imply roughly 54.1% for a Mara Sugar win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the FKF Premier League table: Mara Sugar are 2nd (4 pts, 4-3 goals), Mombasa Elite 17th (0 pts, 1-3).

Over their last five matches, Mara Sugar averaged 2 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; Mombasa Elite averaged 0 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Mara Sugar.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.85	3.03	4.11

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.17	1.79	1.30

Draw no bet

1	2
1.34	3.01

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.11	1.62

1st half

1	X	2
2.47	1.94	5.01

2nd half

1	X	2
2.25	2.21	4.54

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.03	14.4	44.5
HT X	4.45	4.47	8.38
HT 2	26.0	15.0	7.05

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.64	6.75	2.82

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.07	7.25
1.5	1.41	2.59
2.5	2.32	1.53
3.5	4.53	1.14
4.5	9.50	1.04
5.5	23.0	1.01

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.09	5.25
1.25	1.27	3.22
1.75	1.54	2.23
2	1.76	1.90
2.25	2.05	1.65
2.75	2.77	1.35
3	3.58	1.21
3.25	3.98	1.17
4	8.20	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.25	3.00	1.31
-1	2.64	1.40
-0.75	2.06	1.68
-0.5	1.88	1.83
-0.25	1.56	2.20
0	1.30	3.03

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.40	1.03
-2	6.50	1.05
-1.75	4.39	1.14
-1.5	3.34	1.24
+0.25	1.22	3.53
+1	1.01	9.00
+1.5	1.01	10.0

Next FKF Premier League matches

20 Oct

Kenya Police – AFC Leopards

All FKF Premier League fixtures and the table

Latest FKF Premier League results

19 Oct	Bandari 1-1 3K
18 Oct	Shabana 0-0 Nairobi United
18 Oct	Homeboyz 1-1 Ulinzi Stars
18 Oct	Murang'a SEAL 5-1 Posta Rangers FC
14 Oct	AFC Leopards 0-0 Bandari
14 Oct	Mombasa Elite 0-1 Homeboyz