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USA vs Mexico• Friendlies, World

2.4:1.83-0FT04/10 · AT&T Stadium, Arlington2.0:0.6

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.971XBX3.84PIN22.50BTNMargin8.0%Books8Markets52Rating47 · 53 levelExp. goals L53.4

Price board · 1X2captured 3 Oct 04:15 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet2.593.452.912.0%
Betano2.653.402.654.9%
Pinnacle2.583.482.635.5%
Betfair2.403.502.638.3%
Marathonbet2.433.242.738.6%
Bet3652.453.302.5510.3%
William Hill2.403.202.6011.4%
SBO2.293.012.4917.1%
Best of all books2.653.502.910.7%
Average2.473.322.658.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

USAMexico
Last 1012Form pts · last 552.4Goals for · last 52.01.8Goals against · last 50.655Attack rating4525Defence rating7545Form rating5550H2H rating500Goals model10047Overall rating53

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 7 Oct 01:21 UTC

USA

7W 0D 3L · goals 26:15 · per match 2.6 for, 1.5 against

4 OctHMexico3-0W
30 SepHChile4-2W
26 SepHPeru4-1W
7 JulHBelgium1-4L
2 JulHBosnia & Herzegovina2-0W
26 JunATürkiye2-3L
19 JunHAustralia2-0W
13 JunHParaguay4-1W
6 JunHGermany1-2L
31 MayHSenegal3-2W

Mexico

6W 2D 2L · goals 18:9 · per match 1.8 for, 0.9 against

4 OctAUSA0-3L
30 SepHPeru1-1D
27 SepHColombia1-1D
6 JulHEngland2-3L
1 JulHEcuador2-0W
25 JunACzechia3-0W
19 JunHSouth Korea1-0W
11 JunHSouth Africa2-0W
5 JunHSerbia5-1W
31 MayHAustralia1-0W

Head to head

6USA wins
3draws
5Mexico wins

14 meetings · goals 16:14 · last 10: 5W 2D 3L for USA

6 Jul 2025CONCACAF Gold CupCONCACAF Gold CupUSA1-2Mexico
16 Oct 2024FriendliesFriendliesMexico2-0USA
25 Mar 2024CONCACAF Nations LeagueCONCACAF Nations LeagueMexico0-2USA
16 Jun 2023CONCACAF Nations LeagueCONCACAF Nations LeagueUSA3-0Mexico
20 Apr 2023FriendliesFriendliesUSA1-1Mexico
25 Mar 2022World Cup - Qualification CONCACAFWorld Cup - Qualification CONCACAFMexico0-0USA
13 Nov 2021World Cup - Qualification CONCACAFWorld Cup - Qualification CONCACAFUSA2-0Mexico
2 Aug 2021CONCACAF Gold CupCONCACAF Gold CupUSA1-0Mexico
7 Jun 2021CONCACAF Nations LeagueCONCACAF Nations LeagueUSA3-2Mexico
7 Sep 2019FriendliesFriendliesUSA0-3Mexico

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg134%2.72X27%3.47239%2.36

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

3 Oct 04:314 Oct 00:211 2.72X 3.472 2.36
12.47 → 2.72 +10.1%X3.32 → 3.47 +4.5%22.65 → 2.36 -10.9%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
1xBet1.941.982.1%
Betano1.931.914.2%
Pinnacle1.851.974.8%
Bet3651.851.955.3%
Betfair1.871.906.1%
SBO1.791.976.6%
Marathonbet1.851.887.2%
Best of all books1.941.982.1%
Average1.871.945.1%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.672.156.4%
William Hill1.652.157.1%
Betano1.702.077.1%
Bet3651.672.107.5%
1xBet1.652.118.0%
Marathonbet1.652.088.7%
Best of all books1.702.155.3%
Average1.672.117.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

USA 10%Draw 45%Mexico 45%

The statistical model rated USA at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Mexico at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.72 | 3.47 | 2.36, which imply roughly 28.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, USA averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game; Mexico averaged 2 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Mexico.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

USA

4-2-3-1

Goalkeeper

  • 24Diego Kochen

Defence

  • 16Alexander Freeman
  • 5Antonee Robinson
  • 6Auston Trusty
  • 3Chris Richards

Midfield

  • 14Sebastian Berhalter
  • 4Tyler Adams
  • 8Cavan Sullivan
  • 7Giovanni Reyna
  • 17Malik Tillman

Attack

  • 19Julian Hall
Substitutes (15)
  • 1Matthew Freese
  • 28Brian Schwake
  • 13Peyton Miller
  • 20Neil Pierre
  • 21Frankie Westfield
  • 2Sergiño Dest
  • 18George Campbell
  • 26Adri Mehmeti
  • 11Zavier Gozo
  • 10Yunus Musah
  • 15Brooklyn Raines
  • 9Damion Downs
  • 27Mathis Albert
  • 23Cole Campbell
  • 22Justin Ellis

Mexico

4-3-3

Goalkeeper

  • 1Raúl Rangel

Defence

  • 23Jesús Gallardo
  • 5Johan Vásquez
  • 15Israel Reyes
  • 3Diego Campillo

Midfield

  • 17Orbelín Pineda
  • 6Erik Lira
  • 28Santiago Sandoval

Attack

  • 25Roberto Alvarado
  • 11Santiago Giménez
  • 7Luis Romo
Substitutes (14)
  • 12Oscar García
  • 4Victor Guzmán
  • 20Mateo Chávez
  • 27Everardo López
  • 2Jorge Sánchez
  • 24Luis Chávez
  • 19Denzell Garcia
  • 21Hugo Camberos
  • 26Isaías Violante
  • 18Obed Vargas
  • 16Jeremy Márquez
  • 8Álvaro Fidalgo
  • 14Armando González
  • 9Germán Berterame

Match Statistics

USAMexico
3Shots on Goal1
2Shots off Goal3
7Total Shots5
2Blocked Shots1
5Shots insidebox3
2Shots outsidebox2
18Fouls8
2Corner Kicks3
2Offsides4
48%Ball Possession52%
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
1Goalkeeper Saves0
401Total passes430
332Passes accurate360
83%Passes %84%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.473.322.65

Double chance

1XX212
1.431.511.31

Draw no bet

12
1.781.95

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.662.11

1st half

1X2
3.022.163.25

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.929.852.05

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.049.68
1.51.263.58
2.51.871.94
3.53.101.33
4.55.811.11
5.511.91.03
6.522.51.01
7.550.5–
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.028.20
11.037.70
1.251.134.55
1.751.333.05
21.412.75
2.251.642.23
2.752.061.70
32.451.50
3.252.761.39
3.753.581.21
44.801.12
4.255.101.10
58.901.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.752.911.37
-0.52.511.54
-0.252.151.69
01.822.00
+0.251.582.28
+0.51.482.66
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.59.471.04
-28.601.01
-1.755.981.09
-1.54.651.15
-1.254.141.19
-13.881.21
+0.751.313.22
+11.174.49
+1.251.134.99
+1.51.115.46
+1.751.056.99
+21.019.60
+2.51.0210.5

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
2.51.702.07

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
6.51.263.60
7.51.502.50
8.51.891.89
9.52.451.52
10.53.401.29

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