Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone• Serie D - Girone F, Italy

#12.5:1.00-0FT27/091.3:2.3#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.20PINX3.25B36523.40B365Margin at best5.6%Books2Markets13Rating64 · 36Exp. goals L53.5

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Sep 12:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.94	3.35	3.60	9.2%
Betano	1.95	3.25	3.50	10.6%
Best of all books	1.95	3.35	3.60	8.9%
Average	1.94	3.30	3.55	9.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 2 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Vigor SenigalliaFossombrone

Last 10#1Table position#102.60Points per game1.4013Form pts · last 572.5Goals for · last 51.31.0Goals against · last 52.367Attack rating3369Defence rating3167Form rating3364H2H rating36100Goals model064Overall rating36

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 4 Oct 14:51 UTC

Vigor Senigallia

5W 3D 2L · goals 21:15 · per match 2.1 for, 1.5 against

27 Sep	H	Fossombrone	0-0	D
20 Sep	A	Termoli Calcio	2-1	W
16 Sep	A	Lanciano FC	2-1	W
13 Sep	H	Real Giulianova	1-0	W
6 Sep	A	Sporting Trestina	5-2	W
3 May	A	Unipomezia	3-3	D
26 Apr	H	Chieti	2-3	L
19 Apr	A	Castelfidardo Calcio	3-1	W
12 Apr	H	Atletico Ascoli	2-2	D
2 Apr	A	Recanatese	1-2	L

Fossombrone

4W 2D 4L · goals 10:16 · per match 1.0 for, 1.6 against

4 Oct	A	Atletico Ascoli	1-0	W
27 Sep	A	Vigor Senigallia	0-0	D
20 Sep	H	Lanciano FC	2-4	L
16 Sep	A	Sporting Trestina	1-0	W
12 Sep	H	L'Aquila	0-4	L
6 Sep	A	Real Giulianova	2-1	W
1 Aug	A	Cesena	0-3	L
3 May	A	Recanatese	0-2	L
26 Apr	H	Castelfidardo Calcio	3-1	W
19 Apr	A	Atletico Ascoli	1-1	D

Head to head

1Vigor Senigallia wins

5draws

1Fossombrone wins

7 meetings · goals 7:7 · last 7: 1W 5D 1L for Vigor Senigallia

8 Feb 2026Serie D - Girone F	Serie D - Girone F	Vigor Senigallia0-0Fossombrone
5 Oct 2025Serie D - Girone F	Serie D - Girone F	Fossombrone1-2Vigor Senigallia
31 Aug 2025Coppa Italia Serie D	Coppa Italia Serie D	Fossombrone0-0Vigor Senigallia
27 Apr 2025Serie D - Girone F	Serie D - Girone F	Vigor Senigallia2-2Fossombrone
15 Dec 2024Serie D - Girone F	Serie D - Girone F	Fossombrone2-2Vigor Senigallia
7 Apr 2024Serie D - Girone F	Serie D - Girone F	Vigor Senigallia1-1Fossombrone
26 Nov 2023Serie D - Girone F	Serie D - Girone F	Fossombrone1-0Vigor Senigallia

Serie D - Girone F tableSerie D: Group Fupdated 4 Oct 15:01 UTC

In the Serie D - Girone F table, Vigor Senigallia sit 1st with 13 points from 5 games, while Fossombrone are 10th with 7 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Vigor Senigallia	5	4	1	0	10:4	+6	13
2	L'Aquila	5	3	2	0	9:2	+7	11
3	Teramo	5	3	1	1	11:7	+4	10
4	Foligno Calcio	5	3	1	1	6:6	0	10
5	Ancona	5	2	2	1	6:5	+1	8
6	Santegidiese	5	2	2	1	5:4	+1	8
7	Montecchio Gallo	5	2	2	1	5:4	+1	8
8	Lanciano FC	5	2	1	2	10:7	+3	7
9	Atletico Ascoli	5	2	1	2	6:7	-1	7
10	Fossombrone	5	2	1	2	5:9	-4	7
11	Recanatese	5	1	3	1	6:6	0	6
12	Notaresco	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5
13	Real Giulianova	5	1	1	3	7:8	-1	4
14	Maceratese	5	1	1	3	4:7	-3	4
15	Sporting Trestina	5	1	1	3	4:7	-3	4
16	Angelana	5	1	1	3	4:7	-3	4
17	Termoli Calcio	5	1	1	3	2:5	-3	4
18	Pietralunga	5	0	2	3	2:6	-4	2

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg142%2.12X29%3.09229%3.03

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.94 → 2.12 +9.3%X3.30 → 3.08 -6.7%23.55 → 3.03 -14.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.85	1.85	8.1%
Betano	1.82	1.82	9.9%
Best of all books	1.85	1.85	8.1%
Average	1.83	1.83	9.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.84	1.96	5.4%
Best of all books	1.84	1.96	5.4%
Average	1.84	1.96	5.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Vigor Senigallia 45%Draw 45%Fossombrone 10%

The statistical model rated Vigor Senigallia at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Fossombrone at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.12 | 3.09 | 3.03, which imply roughly 47.2% for a Vigor Senigallia win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie D - Girone F table: Vigor Senigallia are 1st (13 pts, 10-4 goals), Fossombrone 10th (7 pts, 5-9).

Over their last five matches, Vigor Senigallia averaged 2.5 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Fossombrone averaged 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Vigor Senigallia or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.94	3.30	3.55

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.25	1.70	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
1.42	2.47

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.84	1.96

1st half

1	X	2
2.52	2.05	4.00

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.26	3.40
2.5	1.84	1.84
3.5	2.97	1.31

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	3.30	1.27
-0.5	1.87	1.75
0	1.41	2.55

Latest Serie D - Girone F results

4 Oct	Teramo 6-4 Vigor Senigallia
4 Oct	Atletico Ascoli 0-1 Fossombrone
4 Oct	Ancona 2-0 Sporting Trestina
4 Oct	Recanatese 2-3 Maceratese
27 Sep	Sporting Trestina 2-0 Termoli Calcio
27 Sep	L'Aquila 2-0 Teramo