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Berceo vs Alfaro• Tercera División RFEF - Group 16, Spain

#61.8:1.41-3FT08/111.0:0.4#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.211XBX3.40B36522.15WHMargin at best7.1%Books7Markets40Rating42 · 58Exp. goals L52.3

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Nov 06:01 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Betano3.153.302.129.2%
Pinnacle3.193.252.0910.0%
Dafabet3.153.202.1110.4%
1xBet3.213.182.0710.9%
Bet3652.903.402.1011.5%
William Hill3.203.002.1012.2%
Marathonbet3.123.182.0512.3%
Best of all books3.213.402.127.7%
Average3.133.222.0910.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

BerceoAlfaro
Last 10#6Table position#31.80Points per game2.209Form pts · last 5121.8Goals for · last 51.01.4Goals against · last 50.464Attack rating3622Defence rating7843Form rating5729H2H rating7161Goals model3942Overall rating58

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 6 Nov 03:01 UTC

Berceo

6W 0D 4L · goals 22:13 · per match 2.2 for, 1.3 against

31 OctACalasancio1-0W
25 OctHAgoncillo1-3L
18 OctAOyonesa0-2L
11 OctHLa Calzada5-1W
4 OctAPradejón2-1W
27 SepHSan Marcial2-1W
20 SepACenicero1-2L
13 SepHRiver Ebro7-0W
5 SepAYagüe2-1W
10 MayAAutol1-2L

Alfaro

6W 1D 3L · goals 12:10 · per match 1.2 for, 1.0 against

1 NovHComillas1-0W
25 OctAVarea0-1L
18 OctHVianés1-0W
11 OctACasalarreina1-0W
4 OctHCalahorra2-1W
27 SepAAnguiano2-1W
20 SepHHaro Deportivo1-2L
13 SepHYagüe2-1W
6 SepACalasancio2-2D
1 MayAReal Unión0-2L

Head to head

2Berceo wins
1draws
5Alfaro wins

8 meetings · goals 8:15 · last 8: 2W 1D 5L for Berceo

7 Apr 2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Alfaro2-2Berceo
19 Nov 2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Berceo2-0Alfaro
30 Jan 2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Alfaro1-0Berceo
19 Sep 2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Berceo0-4Alfaro
28 Feb 2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Alfaro2-0Berceo
27 Dec 2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Berceo1-2Alfaro
1 Mar 2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Berceo3-1Alfaro
13 Oct 2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Alfaro3-0Berceo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 tableTercera: Group 16updated 13 Nov 16:30 UTC

In the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table, Berceo sit 6th with 18 points from 10 games, while Alfaro are 3rd with 22 points from 10.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Haro Deportivo1081125:15+1025
2La Calzada1080216:11+524
3Alfaro1071215:9+622
4Calahorra1070329:11+1821
5Varea1054110:5+519
6Berceo1060422:14+818
7Anguiano1052316:9+717
8Oyonesa1052315:11+417
9Agoncillo1044220:14+616
10San Marcial1043312:8+415
11Pradejón1041510:13-313
12Yagüe1040613:22-912
13Calasancio1032512:19-711
14River Ebro1021710:22-127
15Comillas101368:15-76
16Cenicero1013610:18-86
17Vianés1011811:20-94
18Casalarreina101099:27-183

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg129%3.13X28%3.22243%2.09

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.1% margin.

1X2 since open average price

6 Nov 03:018 Nov 00:501 3.10X 3.232 2.10
12.40 → 3.10 +29.2%X3.30 → 3.23 -2.1%22.50 → 2.10 -16.0%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Bet3651.901.905.3%
Pinnacle1.891.866.7%
Betano1.851.858.1%
1xBet1.851.829.0%
Marathonbet1.851.829.0%
Best of all books1.901.905.3%
Average1.871.857.6%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
William Hill1.702.008.8%
1xBet1.682.029.0%
Betano1.672.029.4%
Marathonbet1.681.999.8%
Best of all books1.702.028.3%
Average1.682.019.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Berceo 10%Draw 45%Alfaro 45%

The statistical model rated Berceo at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Alfaro at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.13 | 3.22 | 2.09, which imply roughly 31.1% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table: Berceo are 6th (18 pts, 22-14 goals), Alfaro 3rd (22 pts, 15-9).

Over their last five matches, Berceo averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Alfaro averaged 1 scored and 0.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Alfaro.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
3.133.222.09

Double chance

1XX212
1.621.291.27

Draw no bet

12
2.261.56

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.682.01

1st half

1X2
3.702.112.70

2nd half

1X2
3.422.422.44

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 15.1215.324.3
HT X7.175.105.30
HT 231.715.03.37

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.159.601.83

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.048.10
1.51.253.31
2.51.871.85
3.53.041.30
4.55.551.10
5.513.01.03
9 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.028.00
1.751.313.00
21.402.59
2.251.632.10
2.752.081.64
32.481.44
3.252.801.35
3.753.801.19
45.201.10

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.252.681.38
02.251.58
+0.251.891.82
+0.51.682.08
+0.751.482.39
+11.293.07
9 more lines
LineHomeAway
-1.56.751.04
-1.254.701.12
-15.801.07
-0.753.881.18
-0.53.101.31
+1.251.223.50
+1.51.183.92
+21.037.50
+2.51.018.30

Latest Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 results

8 NovVarea 2-0 Anguiano
1 NovAgoncillo 1-0 River Ebro
25 OctBerceo 1-3 Agoncillo