Jagiellonia II vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.• III Liga - Group 1, Poland

#110.8:1.612:00Today2.2:1.4#13

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.75BFRX4.40BVC25.171XBMargin9.9%Books8Markets46Rating48 · 52 levelExp. goals L53.0

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Oct 06:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.53	4.40	5.00	8.1%
BetVictor	1.50	4.40	5.00	9.4%
Betano	1.52	4.10	4.85	10.8%
1xBet	1.49	4.10	5.17	10.8%
Bet365	1.62	4.00	4.10	11.1%
Betfair	1.75	4.00	3.40	11.6%
Pinnacle	1.48	4.09	5.04	11.9%
Marathonbet	1.48	4.10	4.95	12.2%
Best of all books	1.75	4.40	5.17	-0.8%
Average	1.55	4.15	4.69	10.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Jagiellonia IIPolonia Lidzbark Warm.

Last 10#11Table position#131.21Points per game1.072Form pts · last 5100.8Goals for · last 52.21.6Goals against · last 51.427Attack rating7347Defence rating5317Form rating83100H2H rating060Goals model4048Overall rating52

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 28 Oct 15:01 UTC

Jagiellonia II

2W 3D 5L · goals 16:21 · per match 1.6 for, 2.1 against

24 Oct	A	Olimpia Elbląg	0-0	D
18 Oct	H	Swit	1-3	L
14 Oct	H	Troszyn	0-1	L
10 Oct	A	Ząbkovia Ząbki	2-2	D
25 Sep	A	Wisła Płock II	1-2	L
19 Sep	H	ŁKS Łódź II	2-3	L
12 Sep	H	Mławianka Mława	7-4	W
5 Sep	A	Łomża	2-1	W
29 Aug	H	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	1-1	D
23 Aug	A	Weszlo	0-4	L

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

4W 2D 4L · goals 18:17 · per match 1.8 for, 1.7 against

24 Oct	H	ŁKS Łódź II	3-0	W
17 Oct	A	Mławianka Mława	2-3	L
10 Oct	H	Łomża	3-2	W
3 Oct	A	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	2-1	W
26 Sep	H	Weszlo	1-1	D
19 Sep	A	Pelikan Łowicz	0-1	L
12 Sep	H	Warta Sieradz	1-2	L
6 Sep	A	Wigry Suwałki	3-1	W
29 Aug	H	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	2-2	D
23 Aug	A	Widzew II	1-4	L

Head to head

2Jagiellonia II wins

0draws

0Polonia Lidzbark Warm. wins

2 meetings · goals 7:1 · last 2: 2W 0D 0L for Jagiellonia II

24 May 2025III Liga - Group 1	III Liga - Group 1	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.0-3Jagiellonia II
2 Nov 2024III Liga - Group 1	III Liga - Group 1	Jagiellonia II4-1Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

III Liga - Group 1 tableGroup Iupdated 29 Oct 15:10 UTC

In the III Liga - Group 1 table, Jagiellonia II sit 11th with 17 points from 14 games, while Polonia Lidzbark Warm. are 13th with 15 points from 14.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Weszlo	14	10	2	2	30:16	+14	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	14	9	4	1	30:13	+17	31
3	Swit	14	8	2	4	28:20	+8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	7	3	4	33:26	+7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	14	7	3	4	24:20	+4	24
6	Wisła Płock II	14	6	4	4	27:23	+4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	6	4	4	27:23	+4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	14	6	4	4	24:22	+2	22
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	6	3	5	29:28	+1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	5	3	6	19:22	-3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	4	5	5	25:26	-1	17
12	Widzew II	14	4	4	6	24:24	0	16
13	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	14	4	3	7	24:27	-3	15
14	ŁKS Łódź II	14	4	3	7	24:28	-4	15
15	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	4	2	8	23:30	-7	14
16	Mławianka Mława	14	4	2	8	27:37	-10	14
17	Troszyn	14	2	5	7	15:30	-15	11
18	Łomża	14	0	4	10	14:32	-18	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg159%1.55X22%4.15219%4.69

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 9.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.78 → 1.55 -12.9%X3.85 → 4.15 +7.8%23.48 → 4.69 +34.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.44	2.62	7.6%
BetVictor	1.40	2.75	7.8%
Pinnacle	1.40	2.63	9.5%
1xBet	1.38	2.62	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.38	2.62	10.6%
Best of all books	1.44	2.75	5.8%
Average	1.40	2.65	9.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
BetVictor	1.47	2.45	8.8%
1xBet	1.47	2.44	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.47	2.39	9.9%
Best of all books	1.47	2.45	8.8%
Average	1.47	2.43	9.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Jagiellonia II 45%Draw 45%Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 10%

The statistical model rates Jagiellonia II at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Polonia Lidzbark Warm. at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.55 | 4.15 | 4.69, which imply roughly 64.5% for a Jagiellonia II win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the III Liga - Group 1 table: Jagiellonia II are 11th (17 pts, 25-26 goals), Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 13th (15 pts, 24-27).

Over their last five matches, Jagiellonia II averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Polonia Lidzbark Warm. averaged 2.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Jagiellonia II or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.55	4.15	4.69

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.16	2.11	1.17

Draw no bet

1	2
1.25	3.63

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.47	2.43

1st half

1	X	2
2.06	2.46	4.58

2nd half

1	X	2
1.77	2.97	4.53

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.60	14.0	29.7
HT X	4.93	7.17	9.50
HT 2	17.0	14.3	6.50

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.52	18.9	2.50

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	–	17.0
1.5	1.11	5.63
2.5	1.40	2.65
3.5	2.00	1.69
4.5	3.27	1.27
5.5	7.25	1.07

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2	1.13	4.60
2.25	1.28	3.11
2.75	1.48	2.36
3	1.60	2.12
3.25	1.81	1.85
3.75	2.25	1.54
4	2.66	1.38
4.25	2.92	1.31
5	5.05	1.10

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.59	1.40
-1.5	2.26	1.53
-1.25	2.03	1.66
-1	1.82	1.86
-0.75	1.64	2.10
-0.5	1.60	2.21

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	7.40	1.03
-3	6.75	1.04
-2.5	3.94	1.17
-2	3.28	1.25
-0.25	1.36	2.77
0	1.25	3.46
+0.25	1.20	3.87
+0.75	1.16	4.10
+1.5	1.04	6.75

Latest III Liga - Group 1 results

24 Oct	Warta Sieradz 2-2 Pelikan Łowicz
24 Oct	Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 3-0 ŁKS Łódź II
24 Oct	Wigry Suwałki 4-1 Weszlo
24 Oct	Olimpia Zambrów 1-1 Mławianka Mława
24 Oct	Olimpia Elbląg 0-0 Jagiellonia II
24 Oct	Swit 3-0 Troszyn