Aston Villa vs Manchester City• Premier League, England

#121.4:1.211:30Today · Villa Park, Birmingham2.6:1.0#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

15.231XBX4.54PIN21.67BTNMargin at best1.0%Books9Markets101Rating38 · 62Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 24 Oct 01:53 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	5.23	4.53	1.66	1.4%
Betano	5.00	4.35	1.67	2.9%
Marathonbet	5.15	4.45	1.63	3.2%
Pinnacle	5.03	4.54	1.62	3.6%
Dafabet	4.80	4.40	1.65	4.2%
Betfair	5.00	4.40	1.62	4.5%
Bet365	5.00	4.33	1.62	4.8%
William Hill	4.60	4.00	1.65	7.3%
BetVictor	4.80	4.33	1.57	7.6%
Best of all books	5.23	4.54	1.67	1.0%
Average	4.96	4.37	1.63	4.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Aston VillaManchester City

Last 10#12Table position#11.14Points per game3.0013Form pts · last 5121.4Goals for · last 52.61.2Goals against · last 51.035Attack rating6545Defence rating5535Form rating6560H2H rating406Goals model9438Overall rating62

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 21 Oct 22:10 UTC

Aston Villa

7W 2D 1L · goals 25:11 · per match 2.5 for, 1.1 against

21 Oct	H	Viking	3-1	W
17 Oct	A	Newcastle	1-0	W
14 Oct	H	Fenerbahçe	6-0	W
10 Oct	H	Brentford	2-2	D
2 Oct	A	Sevilla	3-1	W
19 Sep	A	Tottenham	3-2	W
16 Sep	A	Coventry	3-1	W
12 Sep	H	Nottingham Forest	1-2	L
8 Sep	A	Club Brugge KV	3-2	W
5 Sep	A	Hull City	0-0	D

Manchester City

9W 0D 1L · goals 31:11 · per match 3.1 for, 1.1 against

20 Oct	H	AEK Athens FC	5-1	W
17 Oct	H	Ipswich	3-2	W
14 Oct	H	Paris Saint Germain	2-4	L
11 Oct	A	Liverpool	3-0	W
20 Sep	H	Sunderland	5-3	W
17 Sep	H	Norwich	5-0	W
13 Sep	A	Manchester United	1-0	W
8 Sep	A	FC Porto	2-0	W
5 Sep	H	Coventry	1-0	W
28 Aug	A	Crystal Palace	4-1	W

Head to head

7Aston Villa wins

2draws

20Manchester City wins

29 meetings · goals 27:68 · last 10: 4W 1D 5L for Aston Villa

24 May 2026Premier League	Premier League	Manchester City1-2Aston Villa
26 Oct 2025Premier League	Premier League	Aston Villa1-0Manchester City
22 Apr 2025Premier League	Premier League	Manchester City2-1Aston Villa
21 Dec 2024Premier League	Premier League	Aston Villa2-1Manchester City
3 Apr 2024Premier League	Premier League	Manchester City4-1Aston Villa
6 Dec 2023Premier League	Premier League	Aston Villa1-0Manchester City
12 Feb 2023Premier League	Premier League	Manchester City3-1Aston Villa
3 Sep 2022Premier League	Premier League	Aston Villa1-1Manchester City
22 May 2022Premier League	Premier League	Manchester City3-2Aston Villa
1 Dec 2021Premier League	Premier League	Aston Villa1-2Manchester City

Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 23 Oct 23:10 UTC

In the Premier League table, Aston Villa sit 12th with 8 points from 7 games, while Manchester City are 1st with 21 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	7	7	0	0	19:7	+12	21
2	Arsenal	7	6	0	1	11:5	+6	18
3	Brighton	7	5	1	1	23:5	+18	16
4	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	17:13	+4	13
5	Liverpool	7	3	3	1	9:8	+1	12
6	Brentford	7	2	4	1	13:8	+5	10
7	Leeds	7	2	4	1	9:6	+3	10
8	Everton	7	2	4	1	8:7	+1	10
9	Ipswich	8	3	1	4	12:16	-4	10
10	Hull City	7	2	3	2	8:7	+1	9
11	Newcastle	7	2	2	3	10:14	-4	8
12	Aston Villa	7	2	2	3	7:11	-4	8
13	Manchester United	7	1	4	2	10:10	0	7
14	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	9:17	-8	7
15	Bournemouth	7	1	3	3	9:13	-4	6
16	Tottenham	7	1	3	3	6:10	-4	6
17	Nottingham Forest	8	1	3	4	6:10	-4	6
18	Coventry	7	2	0	5	6:14	-8	6
19	Fulham	7	1	2	4	7:10	-3	5
20	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	6:14	-8	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg119%4.96X22%4.37259%1.63

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14.40 → 4.96 +12.7%X4.07 → 4.37 +7.4%21.71 → 1.63 -4.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.48	2.74	4.1%
Betano	1.53	2.57	4.3%
Bet365	1.53	2.50	5.4%
1xBet	1.50	2.58	5.4%
Betfair	1.44	2.63	7.5%
Marathonbet	1.47	2.53	7.6%
BetVictor	1.47	2.44	9.0%
Best of all books	1.53	2.74	1.9%
Average	1.49	2.57	6.1%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.53	2.50	5.4%
Betano	1.53	2.40	7.0%
William Hill	1.57	2.30	7.2%
Bet365	1.53	2.38	7.4%
1xBet	1.53	2.37	7.6%
Marathonbet	1.53	2.34	8.1%
BetVictor	1.50	2.40	8.3%
Best of all books	1.57	2.50	3.7%
Average	1.53	2.38	7.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Aston Villa 10%Draw 45%Manchester City 45%

The statistical model rates Aston Villa at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Manchester City at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.96 | 4.37 | 1.63, which imply roughly 22.9% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Aston Villa are 12th (8 pts, 7-11 goals), Manchester City 1st (21 pts, 19-7).

Over their last five matches, Aston Villa averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Manchester City averaged 2.6 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Manchester City.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
4.96	4.37	1.63

Double chance

1X	X2	12
2.29	1.18	1.21

Draw no bet

1	2
3.62	1.25

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.53	2.38

1st half

1	X	2
4.72	2.53	2.09

2nd half

1	X	2
4.40	2.91	1.91

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	8.30	15.9	19.6
HT X	11.3	7.14	4.76
HT 2	37.2	14.9	2.39

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.64	19.1	1.51

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	13.7
1.5	1.13	5.45
2.5	1.49	2.57
3.5	2.22	1.67
4.5	3.75	1.26
5.5	7.01	1.09
6.5	12.0	1.03
7.5	17.3	1.02
8.5	31.3	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	9.95
1.75	1.15	4.67
2	1.20	4.39
2.25	1.34	3.12
2.75	1.59	2.33
3	1.76	2.07
3.25	1.99	1.84
3.75	2.51	1.52
4	3.05	1.38
4.25	3.36	1.31
4.75	4.37	1.17
5	5.77	1.11
5.25	5.97	1.09

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.25	2.81	1.42
+0.5	2.33	1.60
+0.75	2.10	1.74
+1	1.83	2.00
+1.25	1.63	2.24
+1.5	1.51	2.55

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	10.2	1.02
-1	8.85	1.03
-0.75	5.91	1.09
-0.5	4.65	1.18
-0.25	4.25	1.21
0	3.74	1.25
+1.75	1.37	2.97
+2	1.26	3.80
+2.25	1.21	4.05
+2.5	1.18	4.41
+2.75	1.11	5.52
+3	1.05	7.30
+3.5	1.03	8.40

Cards in match

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.09	6.50
2.5	1.27	3.55
3.5	1.60	2.30
4.5	2.21	1.63
5.5	3.10	1.34
6.5	4.60	1.17
7.5	6.70	1.09
8.5	9.25	1.04
9.5	11.5	1.02

3 more lines

Line	Over	Under
3	1.31	3.28
4	1.87	1.94
5	2.92	1.38

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
3.5	1.01	14.0
4.5	1.02	12.1
5.5	1.04	8.32
6.5	1.11	5.20
7.5	1.24	3.43
8.5	1.46	2.51
9.5	1.79	1.96
10.5	2.27	1.57
11.5	3.01	1.32
12.5	4.06	1.18
13.5	5.65	1.09
14.5	7.40	1.05
15.5	11.4	1.02
16.5	11.5	1.02
17.5	13.0	1.01

17 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6	1.04	5.57
7	1.12	4.15
7.75	1.24	3.34
8	1.26	2.92
8.25	1.35	2.79
8.75	1.49	2.40
9	1.58	2.22
9.25	1.68	2.10
9.75	1.86	1.82
10	2.01	1.77
10.25	2.12	1.61
10.75	2.41	1.46
11	2.53	1.40
11.25	2.83	1.33
12	3.25	1.21
13	4.32	1.11
14	5.47	1.05

Next Premier League matches

24 Oct	Coventry – Fulham
24 Oct	Arsenal – Everton
24 Oct	Chelsea – Tottenham
25 Oct	Liverpool – Brighton
25 Oct	Crystal Palace – Newcastle
25 Oct	Hull City – Brentford

All Premier League fixtures and the table

Latest Premier League results

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19 Oct	Tottenham 3-1 Coventry
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18 Oct	Brighton 5-0 Crystal Palace