Deren vs Ulaanbaatar• Premier League, Mongolia

#32.2:1.24-1FTToday3.2:0.6#1

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

15.00BFRX5.20MAR21.45BTNMargin at best8.2%Books7Markets48Rating30 · 70Exp. goals L53.6

Price board · 1X2captured 10 Nov 06:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	4.94	5.20	1.40	10.9%
Betano	4.60	4.90	1.45	11.1%
Bet365	4.00	6.50	1.40	11.8%
Marathonbet	4.75	5.20	1.39	12.2%
William Hill	4.80	4.80	1.40	13.1%
Betfair	5.00	5.00	1.36	13.5%
BetVictor	4.40	4.20	1.36	20.1%
Best of all books	5.00	5.20	1.45	8.2%
Average	4.64	5.11	1.39	12.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

DerenUlaanbaatar

Last 10#3Table position#11.75Points per game2.837Form pts · last 5152.2Goals for · last 53.21.2Goals against · last 50.641Attack rating5933Defence rating6732Form rating6829H2H rating7117Goals model8330Overall rating70

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 9 Nov 15:30 UTC

Deren

5W 2D 3L · goals 30:14 · per match 3.0 for, 1.4 against

6 Nov	A	Hunters	1-2	L
2 Nov	A	Central Stallions	3-3	D
29 Oct	A	Ulaanbaatar	0-1	L
25 Oct	H	Hunters	2-0	W
14 Oct	H	Erchim	5-0	W
11 Oct	A	Central Stallions	1-2	L
4 Oct	H	Khovd	3-3	D
1 Oct	A	Khovd Western	5-1	W
27 Sep	H	Amtat FC	5-2	W
20 Sep	A	Ulaangom City	5-0	W

Ulaanbaatar

10W 0D 0L · goals 44:7 · per match 4.4 for, 0.7 against

6 Nov	H	Central Stallions	3-2	W
2 Nov	A	Hunters	9-1	W
29 Oct	H	Deren	1-0	W
25 Oct	A	Central Stallions	1-0	W
18 Oct	H	Central Stallions	2-0	W
14 Oct	H	Khovd Western	8-0	W
11 Oct	A	Erchim	3-1	W
5 Oct	H	Ulaangom City	8-0	W
30 Sep	A	Khovd	4-0	W
27 Sep	H	Hunters	5-3	W

Head to head

5Deren wins

3draws

9Ulaanbaatar wins

17 meetings · goals 18:30 · last 10: 2W 3D 5L for Deren

29 Oct 2026Premier League	Premier League	Ulaanbaatar1-0Deren
17 Sep 2026Premier League	Premier League	Deren0-0Ulaanbaatar
6 Jul 2026Premier League	Premier League	Ulaanbaatar2-3Deren
27 Jun 2026Premier League	Premier League	Deren0-2Ulaanbaatar
23 May 2026Premier League	Premier League	Ulaanbaatar2-0Deren
26 Oct 2025Premier League	Premier League	Deren1-1Ulaanbaatar
20 Jul 2025Premier League	Premier League	Deren0-1Ulaanbaatar
11 Jun 2025Premier League	Premier League	Ulaanbaatar4-1Deren
9 Mar 2025Premier League	Premier League	Deren2-0Ulaanbaatar
22 Jun 2024Premier League	Premier League	Deren1-1Ulaanbaatar

Premier League tablePremier Leagueupdated 10 Nov 09:00 UTC

In the Premier League table, Deren sit 3rd with 21 points from 12 games, while Ulaanbaatar are 1st with 34 points from 12.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Ulaanbaatar	12	11	1	0	53:7	+46	34
2	Central Stallions	13	9	1	3	44:19	+25	28
3	Deren	12	6	3	3	32:15	+17	21
4	Hunters	13	6	0	7	37:39	-2	18
5	Amtat FC	12	5	1	6	22:41	-19	16
6	Khovd Western	12	5	0	7	26:40	-14	15
7	Erchim	12	4	0	8	19:38	-19	12
8	Khovd	11	3	1	7	33:39	-6	10
9	Ulaangom City	11	1	1	9	14:42	-28	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg119%4.64X17%5.11264%1.39

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.2% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.70 → 4.64 +25.4%X4.75 → 5.11 +7.6%21.57 → 1.39 -11.5%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.12	5.50	7.5%
Betfair	1.14	4.80	8.6%
1xBet	1.18	4.00	9.7%
Best of all books	1.18	5.50	2.9%
Average	1.15	4.77	8.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.29	3.30	7.8%
William Hill	1.33	3.00	8.5%
1xBet	1.27	3.30	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.27	3.20	10.0%
BetVictor	1.22	2.63	20.0%
Best of all books	1.33	3.30	5.5%
Average	1.28	3.09	10.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Deren 0%Draw 50%Ulaanbaatar 50%

The statistical model rated Deren at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and Ulaanbaatar at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 4.64 | 5.11 | 1.39, which imply roughly 19.6% for the draw versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Premier League table: Deren are 3rd (21 pts, 32-15 goals), Ulaanbaatar 1st (34 pts, 53-7).

Over their last five matches, Deren averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Ulaanbaatar averaged 3.2 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Ulaanbaatar.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
4.64	5.11	1.39

Double chance

1X	X2	12
2.50	1.14	1.10

Draw no bet

1	2
3.23	1.24

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.28	3.09

1st half

1	X	2
4.19	3.00	1.79

2nd half

1	X	2
4.37	3.35	1.68

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	7.15	14.9	13.8
HT X	11.8	10.1	5.18
HT 2	26.0	14.4	2.13

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.25	34.0	1.57

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.03	10.3
2.5	1.15	4.77
3.5	1.49	2.37
4.5	2.09	1.59
5.5	3.33	1.26

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
3	1.22	3.50
3.25	1.37	2.70
3.75	1.61	2.12
4	1.73	1.86
4.25	1.89	1.69
4.75	2.41	1.46
5	2.75	1.36
5.25	3.08	1.28
5.75	3.28	1.25
6	5.15	1.10

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+0.5	2.54	1.43
+0.75	2.33	1.49
+1	2.02	1.69
+1.25	1.79	1.82
+1.5	1.69	1.94
+1.75	1.52	2.26

9 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1	8.50	1.01
-0.25	4.25	1.15
0	3.92	1.18
+0.25	2.96	1.31
+2	1.37	2.69
+2.25	1.37	2.74
+2.5	1.26	3.20
+3	1.14	4.60
+3.5	1.09	5.30

Latest Premier League results

10 Nov	Central Stallions 3-2 Hunters
6 Nov	Ulaanbaatar 3-2 Central Stallions
2 Nov	Central Stallions 3-3 Deren
1 Nov	Khovd 0-3 Khovd Western
29 Oct	Ulaanbaatar 1-0 Deren
24 Oct	Khovd Western 1-3 Amtat FC