Derry City vs Waterford• FAI Cup, Ireland

2.8:0.80-0LiveToday · Aviva Stadium, Dublin2.3:0.5

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.09DAFX3.60BTN23.561XBMargin at best3.7%Books9Markets72Rating52 · 48 levelExp. goals L53.2

Price board · 1X2captured 8 Nov 08:35 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	2.07	3.65	3.20	7.0%
Dafabet	2.14	3.55	3.10	7.2%
Pinnacle	2.04	3.50	3.37	7.3%
1xBet	1.97	3.44	3.56	7.9%
Marathonbet	1.95	3.44	3.54	8.6%
Betfair	1.95	3.50	3.20	11.1%
William Hill	2.00	3.20	3.30	11.6%
Bet365	1.91	3.30	3.30	13.0%
BetVictor	1.87	3.13	2.90	19.9%
Best of all books	2.14	3.65	3.56	2.2%
Average	1.99	3.41	3.27	10.1%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Derry CityWaterford

Last 1010Form pts · last 5122.8Goals for · last 52.30.8Goals against · last 50.555Attack rating4540Defence rating6050Form rating5062H2H rating380Goals model10052Overall rating48

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 8 Nov 00:12 UTC

Derry City

6W 3D 1L · goals 18:12 · per match 1.8 for, 1.2 against

30 Oct	A	Sligo Rovers	2-2	D
23 Oct	H	Dundalk	2-1	W
19 Oct	H	St Patrick's Athl.	1-0	W
16 Oct	A	Drogheda United	0-2	L
10 Oct	A	Galway United	2-0	W
18 Sep	H	Galway United	1-0	W
14 Sep	A	Waterford	2-2	D
11 Sep	A	Shelbourne	1-0	W
6 Sep	H	Dundalk	4-2	W
30 Aug	H	Shamrock Rovers	3-3	D

Waterford

6W 2D 2L · goals 22:13 · per match 2.2 for, 1.3 against

30 Oct	A	Shelbourne	3-2	W
23 Oct	H	Drogheda United	3-1	W
19 Oct	H	Galway United	3-2	W
16 Oct	A	Bohemians	1-2	L
9 Oct	A	Bohemians	2-0	W
18 Sep	A	Shamrock Rovers	2-3	L
14 Sep	H	Derry City	2-2	D
11 Sep	H	Dundalk	1-1	D
4 Sep	H	Sligo Rovers	3-0	W
28 Aug	A	St Patrick's Athl.	2-0	W

Head to head

13Derry City wins

5draws

5Waterford wins

23 meetings · goals 51:30 · last 10: 5W 2D 3L for Derry City

14 Sep 2026Premier Division	Premier Division	Waterford2-2Derry City
3 Jul 2026Premier Division	Premier Division	Derry City2-4Waterford
15 May 2026Premier Division	Premier Division	Waterford2-2Derry City
27 Feb 2026Premier Division	Premier Division	Derry City4-2Waterford
17 Oct 2025Premier Division	Premier Division	Waterford1-2Derry City
4 Jul 2025Premier Division	Premier Division	Derry City7-2Waterford
25 Apr 2025Premier Division	Premier Division	Waterford2-1Derry City
28 Feb 2025Premier Division	Premier Division	Derry City1-2Waterford
23 Aug 2024Premier Division	Premier Division	Waterford0-1Derry City
3 Jun 2024Premier Division	Premier Division	Derry City3-0Waterford

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg145%2.01X27%3.39228%3.25

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.7% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.76 → 1.98 +12.5%X3.75 → 3.43 -8.5%23.78 → 3.26 -13.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	1.70	2.13	5.8%
Bet365	1.70	2.10	6.4%
Betano	1.70	2.10	6.4%
1xBet	1.69	2.08	7.2%
Marathonbet	1.69	2.08	7.2%
BetVictor	1.54	1.82	19.9%
Best of all books	1.70	2.13	5.8%
Average	1.67	2.05	8.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.62	2.20	7.2%
William Hill	1.62	2.20	7.2%
Betano	1.60	2.20	8.0%
1xBet	1.58	2.23	8.1%
Marathonbet	1.58	2.20	8.7%
BetVictor	1.45	1.95	20.2%
Best of all books	1.62	2.23	6.6%
Average	1.57	2.16	9.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Derry City 10%Draw 45%Waterford 45%

The statistical model rates Derry City at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Waterford at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.01 | 3.39 | 3.25, which imply roughly 29.5% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Derry City averaged 2.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Waterford averaged 2.3 scored and 0.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Waterford.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.99	3.41	3.27

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.27	1.73	1.24

Draw no bet

1	2
1.47	2.36

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.58	2.16

1st half

1	X	2
2.48	2.22	3.78

2nd half

1	X	2
2.30	2.57	3.48

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.05	14.1	35.3
HT X	5.05	5.53	8.08
HT 2	24.8	14.6	5.70

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.66	12.6	2.32

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	9.93
1.5	1.19	3.78
2.5	1.67	2.05
3.5	2.58	1.40
4.5	4.46	1.13
5.5	7.74	1.04
6.5	11.7	1.01
7.5	17.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.03	8.95
1.25	1.08	5.50
1.75	1.21	3.59
2	1.29	3.17
2.25	1.47	2.34
2.75	1.81	1.82
3	2.06	1.62
3.25	2.30	1.48
3.75	3.10	1.29
4	4.10	1.16
4.25	4.51	1.13
4.75	6.15	1.06
5	8.70	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.78	1.38
-0.75	2.22	1.53
-0.5	1.98	1.72
-0.25	1.70	1.95
0	1.45	2.41
+0.25	1.35	2.92

14 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	9.15	1.02
-3	8.70	1.03
-2.75	8.20	1.02
-2.5	7.07	1.06
-2.25	6.60	1.07
-2	6.43	1.07
-1.75	4.39	1.16
-1.5	3.27	1.30
-1.25	3.17	1.30
+0.5	1.32	3.30
+0.75	1.17	4.27
+1	1.08	6.43
+1.25	1.06	6.88
+1.5	1.05	7.40

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.01	7.22
7.5	1.13	4.30
8.5	1.32	2.90
9.5	1.60	2.17
10.5	1.97	1.74
11.5	2.52	1.44
12.5	3.40	1.23
13.5	4.91	1.09

8 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.02	6.67
8	1.17	3.89
9	1.41	2.60
10	1.79	1.96
11	2.27	1.55
12	3.10	1.28
13	4.54	1.12
14	7.10	1.01

Latest FAI Cup results

10 Oct	Galway United 0-2 Derry City
9 Oct	Bohemians 0-2 Waterford