Navalcarnero vs Real Murcia• Copa Federacion, Spain

3.0:0.03-1FT30/09 · Estadio Mariano Gonzalez, Madrid3.0:1.0

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.90BVCX3.811XB21.941XBMargin at best3.4%Books4Markets37Rating50 · 50 levelExp. goals L53.5

Price board · 1X2captured 29 Sep 16:15 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	3.52	3.78	2.00	4.9%
Betfair	3.50	3.40	1.95	9.3%
Bet365	3.40	3.40	1.91	11.2%
Marathonbet	3.38	3.40	1.88	12.2%
Best of all books	3.52	3.78	2.00	4.9%
Average	3.45	3.50	1.94	9.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

NavalcarneroReal Murcia

Last 109Form pts · last 573.0Goals for · last 53.00.0Goals against · last 51.050Attack rating50100Defence rating050Form rating500H2H rating00Goals model050Overall rating50

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 22 Oct 15:01 UTC

Navalcarnero

5W 4D 1L · goals 21:12 · per match 2.1 for, 1.2 against

18 Oct	A	Salamanca UDS	1-1	D
14 Oct	A	Recreativo Huelva	2-2	D
11 Oct	H	A Madrid III	1-1	D
4 Oct	A	RSD Alcalá	3-1	W
30 Sep	H	Real Murcia	3-1	W
27 Sep	H	Conquense	1-3	L
23 Sep	A	Saguntino	4-0	W
20 Sep	A	Atlético Tordesillas	2-2	D
13 Sep	H	Real Ávila	2-1	W
9 Sep	A	CF Talavera	2-0	W

Real Murcia

6W 1D 3L · goals 16:11 · per match 1.6 for, 1.1 against

18 Oct	H	Zaragoza	0-0	D
11 Oct	A	Rayo Majadahonda	1-0	W
7 Oct	A	FC Cartagena	0-1	L
4 Oct	H	Gimnastic	2-0	W
30 Sep	A	Navalcarnero	1-3	L
19 Sep	H	Europa Fc	2-1	W
16 Sep	A	Orihuela	4-1	W
13 Sep	A	Atlético Madrid II	0-4	L
9 Sep	A	Mensajero	2-1	W
6 Sep	H	Teruel	4-0	W

Head to head

No previous meetings between Navalcarnero and Real Murcia on record.

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg127%3.33X28%3.21245%2.02

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.45 → 3.65 +5.8%X3.49 → 3.45 -1.1%21.94 → 1.85 -4.6%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.90	1.90	5.3%
1xBet	1.89	1.91	5.3%
Marathonbet	1.83	1.83	9.3%
Best of all books	1.90	1.91	5.0%
Average	1.87	1.88	6.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.70	1.99	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.70	1.96	9.8%
Best of all books	1.70	1.99	9.1%
Average	1.70	1.98	9.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Navalcarnero 45%Draw 45%Real Murcia 10%

The statistical model rated Navalcarnero at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Real Murcia at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.33 | 3.21 | 2.02, which imply roughly 30% for a Navalcarnero win versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Navalcarnero averaged 3 goals scored and 0 conceded per game; Real Murcia averaged 3 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Navalcarnero or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.45	3.49	1.94

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.72	1.23	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
2.62	1.44

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.70	1.98

1st half

1	X	2
4.05	2.20	2.54

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.36	11.1	1.65

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.25	3.42
2.5	1.87	1.88
3.5	3.10	1.31
4.5	6.02	1.08

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	–	9.20
1.75	1.29	3.04
2	1.38	2.62
2.25	1.62	2.10
2.75	2.10	1.66
3	2.46	1.43
3.25	2.91	1.35
3.75	4.05	1.19
4	5.35	1.09
4.25	5.40	1.12

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.25	2.93	1.32
0	2.53	1.43
+0.25	2.01	1.65
+0.5	1.82	1.98
+0.75	1.56	2.18
+1	1.34	2.78

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	8.10	1.02
-1	6.90	1.04
-0.75	4.40	1.14
+1.25	1.26	3.20
+1.5	1.21	3.58
+2	1.04	7.10
+2.5	1.02	8.00

Latest Copa Federacion results

14 Oct	Recreativo Huelva 2-2 Navalcarnero
14 Oct	Sestao River 3-1 Salamanca UDS
30 Sep	Sestao River 4-1 Terrassa
23 Sep	Saguntino 0-4 Navalcarnero