Ferrymead Bays vs Wellington Phoenix II• National League - National, New-Zealand

#90.6:2.21-0FT07/11 · Ferrymead Park, Christchurch1.0:3.4#10

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.63DAFX4.37PIN24.40BVCMargin at best7.0%Books8Markets55Rating52 · 49 levelExp. goals L53.6

Price board · 1X2captured 6 Nov 19:49 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	1.60	4.40	4.40	8.0%
Pinnacle	1.60	4.39	4.32	8.4%
BetVictor	1.57	4.20	4.50	9.7%
1xBet	1.57	4.20	4.28	10.9%
Betano	1.60	4.00	4.25	11.0%
Bet365	1.57	4.50	3.90	11.6%
Marathonbet	1.55	4.20	4.20	12.1%
William Hill	1.60	3.90	4.00	13.1%
Best of all books	1.60	4.50	4.50	6.9%
Average	1.58	4.22	4.23	10.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Ferrymead BaysWellington Phoenix II

Last 10#9Table position#101.00Points per game0.713Form pts · last 530.6Goals for · last 51.02.2Goals against · last 53.438Attack rating6361Defence rating3943Form rating570H2H rating064Goals model3652Overall rating49

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 13 Nov 21:00 UTC

Ferrymead Bays

4W 1D 5L · goals 9:15 · per match 0.9 for, 1.5 against

7 Nov	H	Wellington Phoenix II	1-0	W
1 Nov	A	Birkenhead United	0-2	L
23 Oct	H	Cashmere Technical	0-2	L
18 Oct	A	Auckland United	0-2	L
10 Oct	H	Miramar	1-4	L
3 Oct	A	Wellington Olympic	2-1	W
26 Sep	H	Eastern Suburbs	0-0	D
24 Feb	A	Cashmere Technical	1-2	L
30 Aug	A	Nomads United	2-1	W
23 Aug	H	Wanaka	2-1	W

Wellington Phoenix II

3W 1D 6L · goals 15:25 · per match 1.5 for, 2.5 against

7 Nov	A	Ferrymead Bays	0-1	L
31 Oct	H	Auckland FC 2	3-2	W
24 Oct	A	Napier City Rovers	1-3	L
10 Oct	H	Birkenhead United	0-1	L
4 Oct	A	Cashmere Technical	0-10	L
26 Sep	H	Auckland United	1-1	D
7 Dec	A	West Suburbs	7-2	W
29 Nov	H	Birkenhead United	2-3	L
22 Nov	A	Auckland City	0-2	L
15 Nov	H	Coastal Spirit	1-0	W

Head to head

No previous meetings between Ferrymead Bays and Wellington Phoenix II on record.

National League - National tableFirst Division: Championship Groupupdated 14 Nov 05:10 UTC

In the National League - National table, Ferrymead Bays sit 9th with 7 points from 7 games, while Wellington Phoenix II are 10th with 5 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Cashmere Technical	7	4	1	2	21:5	+16	13
2	Wellington Olympic	6	4	1	1	16:8	+8	13
3	Auckland City	7	3	4	0	15:8	+7	13
4	Birkenhead United	6	4	1	1	13:7	+6	13
5	Miramar	6	3	1	2	11:8	+3	10
6	Napier City Rovers	6	3	1	2	13:13	0	10
7	Auckland United	7	2	2	3	15:13	+2	8
8	Eastern Suburbs	6	2	1	3	7:13	-6	7
9	Ferrymead Bays	7	2	1	4	4:11	-7	7
10	Wellington Phoenix II	7	1	2	4	6:19	-13	5
11	Auckland FC 2	7	0	1	6	9:25	-16	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg158%1.57X21%4.31221%4.26

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.0% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.40	2.75	7.8%
BetVictor	1.33	3.00	8.5%
1xBet	1.33	2.83	10.5%
Marathonbet	1.33	2.83	10.5%
Best of all books	1.40	3.00	4.8%
Average	1.35	2.85	9.3%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
BetVictor	1.40	2.70	8.5%
1xBet	1.40	2.66	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.40	2.60	9.9%
William Hill	1.36	2.70	10.6%
Best of all books	1.40	2.70	8.5%
Average	1.39	2.67	9.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Ferrymead Bays 45%Draw 45%Wellington Phoenix II 10%

The statistical model rated Ferrymead Bays at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Wellington Phoenix II at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.57 | 4.31 | 4.26, which imply roughly 63.7% for a Ferrymead Bays win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the National League - National table: Ferrymead Bays are 9th (7 pts, 4-11 goals), Wellington Phoenix II 10th (5 pts, 6-19).

Over their last five matches, Ferrymead Bays averaged 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game; Wellington Phoenix II averaged 1 scored and 3.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Ferrymead Bays or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.58	4.22	4.23

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.16	2.14	1.16

Draw no bet

1	2
1.27	3.34

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.39	2.67

1st half

1	X	2
2.02	2.58	4.29

2nd half

1	X	2
1.86	2.95	4.05

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.31	15.0	31.3
HT X	4.76	7.73	10.4
HT 2	17.3	15.3	7.18

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.50	24.0	2.44

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	20.0
1.5	1.07	6.27
2.5	1.35	2.85
3.5	1.90	1.79
4.5	2.95	1.32
5.5	5.17	1.10

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	12.0
1.75	1.08	5.45
2	1.10	5.05
2.25	1.22	3.50
2.75	1.41	2.61
3	1.51	2.31
3.25	1.71	1.99
3.75	2.10	1.63
4	2.44	1.46
4.25	2.71	1.38
4.75	3.48	1.23
5	4.45	1.14
5.25	4.75	1.12
6	8.20	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.41	1.48
-1.25	2.16	1.59
-1	1.92	1.78
-0.75	1.69	2.00
-0.5	1.56	2.28
-0.25	1.41	2.60

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	7.60	1.03
-3	7.00	1.04
-2.75	5.10	1.10
-2.5	4.15	1.16
-2.25	3.82	1.18
-2	3.50	1.22
-1.75	2.80	1.36
0	1.25	3.28
+0.25	1.20	3.70
+0.75	1.10	5.15
+1	1.03	7.50
+1.5	1.02	8.20

Next National League - National matches

14 Nov	Cashmere Technical – Wellington Olympic
15 Nov	Napier City Rovers – Ferrymead Bays

All National League - National fixtures and the table

Latest National League - National results

14 Nov	Wellington Phoenix II 1-1 Auckland City
7 Nov	Wellington Olympic 4-2 Auckland United
1 Nov	Cashmere Technical 1-1 Auckland City
24 Oct	Napier City Rovers 5-2 Wellington Phoenix II
24 Oct	Auckland City 3-0 Auckland United
23 Oct	Ferrymead Bays 0-2 Cashmere Technical