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Gremio vs Atletico-MG• Copa Do Brasil, Brazil

1.6:0.42-0FT01/11 · Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre1.2:0.8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.66PINX3.25B36523.01PINMargin at best1.6%Books10Markets79Rating61 · 39Exp. goals L52.0

Price board · 1X2captured 1 Nov 18:00 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle2.632.983.133.5%
Bet3652.503.302.904.8%
Betano2.553.152.954.9%
1xBet2.633.042.915.3%
Dafabet2.553.202.855.6%
Marathonbet2.572.982.857.6%
Betfair2.503.002.888.1%
BetVictor2.453.002.809.9%
William Hill2.502.902.8010.2%
SBO2.412.932.6613.2%
Best of all books2.633.303.130.3%
Average2.533.052.877.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

GremioAtletico-MG
Last 109Form pts · last 501.6Goals for · last 51.20.4Goals against · last 50.857Attack rating4367Defence rating3355Form rating4560H2H rating4077Goals model2361Overall rating39

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 5 Nov 01:40 UTC

Gremio

3W 3D 4L · goals 13:14 · per match 1.3 for, 1.4 against

4 NovAFlamengo1-3L
1 NovHAtletico-MG2-0W
30 OctHAtletico Paranaense2-0W
26 OctACoritiba1-0W
18 OctHCruzeiro2-4L
11 OctHInternacional1-1D
7 OctARemo1-1D
20 SepHPalmeiras0-0D
16 SepABotafogo2-3L
12 SepHVasco DA Gama1-2L

Atletico-MG

4W 1D 5L · goals 11:12 · per match 1.1 for, 1.2 against

5 NovABotafogo0-1L
1 NovAGremio0-2L
29 OctHCruzeiro0-1L
26 OctAFlamengo2-3L
21 OctAAtletico Torque0-2L
17 OctHCoritiba1-0W
14 OctHAtletico Torque3-0W
11 OctHSantos2-1W
8 OctAAtletico Paranaense2-2D
3 OctHRB Bragantino1-0W

Head to head

18Gremio wins
6draws
11Atletico-MG wins

35 meetings · goals 53:43 · last 10: 6W 0D 4L for Gremio

1 Nov 2026Copa Do BrasilCopa Do BrasilGremio2-0Atletico-MG
16 Aug 2026Serie ASerie AAtletico-MG3-0Gremio
26 Feb 2026Serie ASerie AGremio2-1Atletico-MG
17 Aug 2025Serie ASerie AAtletico-MG1-3Gremio
29 Mar 2025Serie ASerie AGremio2-1Atletico-MG
9 Oct 2024Serie ASerie AAtletico-MG2-1Gremio
1 Sep 2024Serie ASerie AGremio2-3Atletico-MG
26 Nov 2023Serie ASerie AAtletico-MG3-0Gremio
23 Jul 2023Serie ASerie AGremio1-0Atletico-MG
10 Dec 2021Serie ASerie AGremio4-3Atletico-MG

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg137%2.53X31%3.04232%2.87

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

29 Oct 00:011 Nov 07:501 2.56X 3.032 2.83
12.56 → 2.56 0.0%X3.07 → 3.03 -1.3%22.78 → 2.83 +1.8%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Betano2.301.654.1%
Pinnacle2.361.624.1%
1xBet2.331.605.4%
SBO2.311.605.8%
Betfair2.301.606.0%
Bet3652.251.626.2%
Marathonbet2.291.587.0%
BetVictor2.191.589.0%
Best of all books2.361.653.0%
Average2.291.615.9%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Betfair1.901.876.1%
Bet3651.951.806.8%
Betano1.901.837.3%
William Hill1.911.807.9%
1xBet1.921.797.9%
BetVictor1.931.788.0%
Marathonbet1.921.778.6%
Best of all books1.951.874.8%
Average1.921.817.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Gremio 45%Draw 45%Atletico-MG 10%

The statistical model rated Gremio at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Atletico-MG at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.53 | 3.04 | 2.87, which imply roughly 39.5% for a Gremio win versus the model's 45%.

Over their last five matches, Gremio averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game; Atletico-MG averaged 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Gremio or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Gremio

4-1-4-1

Coach: Renato Gaúcho

Goalkeeper

  • 1Weverton

Defence

  • 18João Pedro
  • 6Gustavo Martins
  • 2F. Balbuena
  • 23Marlon

Midfield

  • 8E. Noriega
  • 99J. Enamorado
  • 20M. Villasanti
  • 82Wallace
  • 9F. Amuzu

Attack

  • 95Carlos Vinícius
Substitutes (12)
  • 11Tetê
  • 22M. Braithwaite
  • 54Pedro Gabriel
  • 12Gabriel Grando
  • 4W. Kannemann
  • 10F. Krovinović
  • 17Dodi
  • 30Matheus Nascimento
  • 14Marcos Rocha
  • 50Bernardo Zortea
  • 38Caio Paulista
  • 3Wagner Leonardo

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1

Coach: E. Domínguez

Goalkeeper

  • 1Gabriel Delfim

Defence

  • 21A. Franco
  • 3Léo Duarte
  • 14Vitor Hugo
  • 6Renan Lodi

Midfield

  • 8Maycon
  • 15K. Castaño
  • 28T. Cuello
  • 30Victor Hugo
  • 11Bernard

Attack

  • 13Lyanco
Substitutes (12)
  • 39Mamady Cisse
  • 40Vitão
  • 10Gustavo Scarpa
  • 22Everson
  • 27A. Minda
  • 17Igor Gomes
  • 25T. Pérez
  • 23A. Preciado
  • 92Dudu
  • 36K. Pascini
  • 2Natanael
  • 29Caua

Match Statistics

GremioAtletico-MG
0.56Expected Goals1.36
158Passes accurate654
4Shots insidebox10
2Shots outsidebox10
2Blocked Shots6
6Free Kicks14
2Shots on Goal4
4Goalkeeper Saves0
2Shots off Goal10
231Total passes728
1Red Cards0
6Total Shots20
4Corner Kicks14
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1
15Fouls7
24%Ball Possession76%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.533.052.87

Double chance

1XX212
1.391.481.34

Draw no bet

12
1.752.01

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.921.81

1st half

1X2
3.221.983.55

2nd half

1X2
2.892.243.16

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 14.2014.234.6
HT X5.704.406.28
HT 231.614.14.64

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.017.402.10

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.067.47
1.51.402.79
2.52.291.61
3.54.221.20
4.58.671.04
5.517.51.02
6.541.0–
12 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.066.25
11.095.57
1.251.233.44
1.751.522.38
21.712.08
2.252.021.77
2.752.671.43
33.411.28
3.253.771.20
3.755.271.10
47.731.03
4.257.901.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.753.071.34
-0.52.491.53
-0.252.141.68
01.772.02
+0.251.522.41
+0.51.412.87
13 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.511.91.02
-211.51.02
-1.757.071.06
-1.55.631.12
-1.254.721.15
-14.561.18
+0.751.263.57
+11.135.71
+1.251.105.68
+1.51.096.64
+1.751.028.10
+21.0112.4
+2.51.0212.0

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
2.51.077.20
3.51.184.40
4.51.382.87
5.51.722.05
6.52.251.60
7.53.051.35
8.54.251.20
9.55.901.11
10.58.001.06

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
4.51.0310.5
5.51.057.95
6.51.095.85
7.51.203.98
8.51.432.66
9.51.712.07
10.52.131.67
11.52.811.38
12.53.871.21
13.55.401.11
14.57.831.04
15.510.51.03
16.512.01.02
11 more lines
LineOverUnder
7.751.293.04
8.251.422.53
8.751.572.18
91.492.45
9.251.781.90
9.752.041.70
101.891.84
10.252.321.51
10.752.661.37
112.571.46
11.252.971.30

Next Copa Do Brasil matches

7 NovAtletico-MG – Gremio
8 NovVasco DA Gama – Palmeiras

All Copa Do Brasil fixtures and the table

Latest Copa Do Brasil results

1 NovPalmeiras 1-0 Vasco DA Gama