Melfi vs Nocerina• Serie D - Girone H, Italy

#140.4:1.00-1FT04/102.2:1.6#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

14.001XBX3.871XB21.851XBMargin at best4.9%Books2Markets14Rating40 · 60Exp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 2 Oct 00:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	4.07	3.78	1.86	4.8%
Betano	3.70	3.25	1.88	11.0%
Best of all books	4.07	3.78	1.88	4.2%
Average	3.89	3.51	1.87	7.7%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 2 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MelfiNocerina

Last 10#14Table position#40.80Points per game2.004Form pts · last 5100.4Goals for · last 52.21.0Goals against · last 51.615Attack rating8562Defence rating3829Form rating710H2H rating054Goals model4640Overall rating60

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 4 Oct 14:51 UTC

Melfi

3W 2D 5L · goals 8:13 · per match 0.8 for, 1.3 against

27 Sep	A	Ebolitana	0-1	L
20 Sep	H	Francavilla	2-1	W
16 Sep	A	Nardò	0-0	D
13 Sep	H	Virtus Francavilla	0-1	L
6 Sep	A	Real Normanna	0-2	L
7 May	H	Matera	0-3	L
30 Apr	A	Foggia	0-1	L
23 Apr	H	Taranto	1-0	W
15 Apr	A	Messina	4-3	W
9 Apr	A	Monopoli	1-1	D

Nocerina

3W 4D 3L · goals 12:11 · per match 1.2 for, 1.1 against

27 Sep	H	USD Palmese	3-0	W
20 Sep	A	Bisceglie	1-3	L
16 Sep	H	Ischia	3-2	W
12 Sep	A	Manfredonia	2-2	D
6 Sep	H	Ebolitana	2-1	W
3 May	H	Ischia	0-1	L
26 Apr	A	Monastir	0-1	L
19 Apr	H	Flaminia	1-1	D
12 Apr	A	Atletico Lodigiani	0-0	D
2 Apr	H	Latte Dolce	0-0	D

Head to head

No previous meetings between Melfi and Nocerina on record.

Serie D - Girone H tableSerie D: Group Hupdated 4 Oct 15:01 UTC

In the Serie D - Girone H table, Melfi sit 14th with 4 points from 5 games, while Nocerina are 4th with 10 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Virtus Francavilla	5	5	0	0	10:4	+6	15
2	Bisceglie	5	4	0	1	11:5	+6	12
3	Turris	5	3	2	0	8:4	+4	11
4	Nocerina	5	3	1	1	11:8	+3	10
5	Real Normanna	5	3	1	1	10:7	+3	10
6	Martina Franca	5	3	0	2	11:7	+4	9
7	Manfredonia	5	2	2	1	9:6	+3	8
8	Gravina	5	2	2	1	8:5	+3	8
9	Real Forio 2014	5	2	1	2	9:8	+1	7
10	Ebolitana	5	2	1	2	5:7	-2	7
11	Gladiator	5	2	0	3	8:10	-2	6
12	Brindisi	5	2	0	3	5:8	-3	6
13	Nardò	5	1	2	2	3:7	-4	5
14	Melfi	5	1	1	3	2:5	-3	4
15	USD Palmese	5	1	1	3	5:10	-5	4
16	Francavilla	5	1	0	4	3:6	-3	3
17	Ischia	5	0	1	4	6:11	-5	1
18	Fidelis Andria	5	0	1	4	4:10	-6	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg123%3.94X26%3.52251%1.80

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.89 → 3.96 +1.8%X3.51 → 3.52 +0.3%21.87 → 1.80 -3.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.99	1.81	5.5%
Betano	1.88	1.75	10.3%
Best of all books	1.99	1.81	5.5%
Average	1.94	1.78	7.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.92	1.88	5.3%
Best of all books	1.92	1.88	5.3%
Average	1.92	1.88	5.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Melfi 10%Draw 45%Nocerina 45%

The statistical model rated Melfi at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Nocerina at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.94 | 3.52 | 1.80, which imply roughly 28.4% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie D - Girone H table: Melfi are 14th (4 pts, 2-5 goals), Nocerina 4th (10 pts, 11-8).

Over their last five matches, Melfi averaged 0.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Nocerina averaged 2.2 scored and 1.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Nocerina.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.89	3.51	1.87

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.75	1.23	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
2.60	1.38

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.92	1.88

1st half

1	X	2
4.20	2.05	2.50

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.32	3.16
2.5	1.94	1.78
3.5	3.36	1.29
4.5	6.91	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
0	2.70	1.37
+0.5	1.78	1.82
+1.5	1.28	3.25

Latest Serie D - Girone H results

4 Oct	Martina Franca 1-0 Francavilla
4 Oct	Manfredonia 1-0 Bisceglie
4 Oct	Gravina 4-2 Virtus Francavilla
4 Oct	Brindisi 3-0 Real Normanna
4 Oct	Gladiator 1-1 Turris
4 Oct	Ischia 1-1 Ebolitana