Birmingham City U21 vs Derby County U21• Premier League 2 Division One, England

#261.7:2.30-4FTToday · Damson Park, Solihull2.3:3.0#20

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.60DAFX4.26PIN22.32PINMargin at best5.0%Books8Markets59Rating44 · 56Exp. goals L54.7

Price board · 1X2captured 19 Oct 17:04 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.43	4.26	2.32	7.7%
Dafabet	2.60	4.10	2.22	7.9%
Betano	2.57	3.90	2.25	9.0%
Betfair	2.45	3.90	2.30	9.9%
Bet365	2.55	4.10	2.10	11.2%
1xBet	2.43	3.96	2.18	12.3%
Marathonbet	2.43	3.96	2.18	12.3%
William Hill	2.40	3.75	2.25	12.8%
Best of all books	2.60	4.26	2.32	5.0%
Average	2.48	3.99	2.22	10.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Birmingham City U21Derby County U21

Last 10#26Table position#200.67Points per game1.004Form pts · last 541.7Goals for · last 52.32.3Goals against · last 53.036Attack rating6463Defence rating3733Form rating67100H2H rating00Goals model044Overall rating56

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 21:11 UTC

Birmingham City U21

2W 3D 5L · goals 15:23 · per match 1.5 for, 2.3 against

13 Oct	A	Truro City	0-3	L
9 Oct	H	Huddersfield Town U21	2-4	L
18 Sep	H	Arsenal U21	0-0	D
15 Sep	A	Gillingham FC U21	4-0	W
11 Sep	A	Norwich City U21	2-4	L
8 Sep	A	Sutton Utd	1-1	D
31 Aug	A	Tottenham Hotspur U21	3-3	D
18 Aug	A	Boston United	3-2	W
14 Aug	A	Swansea City U21	0-3	L
10 Apr	H	Ipswich Town U21	0-3	L

Derby County U21

2W 2D 6L · goals 19:32 · per match 1.9 for, 3.2 against

13 Oct	A	Scunthorpe	2-2	D
10 Oct	A	Brentford U21	2-4	L
18 Sep	A	Burnley U21	1-4	L
11 Sep	H	Tottenham Hotspur U21	1-3	L
8 Sep	A	Gateshead	3-1	W
31 Aug	H	West Bromwich Albion U21	4-4	D
24 Aug	A	Reading U21	3-1	W
18 Aug	A	FC Halifax Town	2-6	L
14 Aug	H	Hull City U21	1-4	L
1 Aug	H	Carlisle	0-3	L

Head to head

1Birmingham City U21 wins

0draws

0Derby County U21 wins

1 meeting · goals 3:0 · last 1: 1W 0D 0L for Birmingham City U21

23 Aug 2025Premier League 2 Division One

Premier League 2 Division One

Derby County U210-3Birmingham City U21

Premier League 2 Division One tablePremier League 2 U21updated 19 Oct 17:30 UTC

In the Premier League 2 Division One table, Birmingham City U21 sit 26th with 2 points from 3 games, while Derby County U21 are 20th with 4 points from 4.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Tottenham Hotspur U21	5	4	1	0	15:7	+8	13
2	Chelsea U21	5	4	0	1	15:9	+6	12
3	Nottingham Forest U21	5	4	0	1	10:9	+1	12
4	Liverpool U21	5	3	1	1	9:4	+5	10
5	Southampton U21	4	3	1	0	7:2	+5	10
6	Sunderland U21	5	3	1	1	15:11	+4	10
7	Fulham U21	5	3	1	1	14:10	+4	10
8	Norwich City U21	5	3	1	1	10:7	+3	10
9	AFC Bournemouth U21	5	3	1	1	11:9	+2	10
10	Manchester United U21	4	3	0	1	14:6	+8	9
11	Everton U21	5	2	2	1	6:4	+2	8
12	Aston Villa U21	5	2	2	1	8:8	0	8
13	Crystal Palace U21	4	2	1	1	7:3	+4	7
14	Reading U21	5	2	1	2	7:7	0	7
15	Leeds United U21	5	2	1	2	12:13	-1	7
16	Brentford U21	5	2	0	3	11:10	+1	6
17	Brighton U21	5	1	2	2	10:12	-2	5
18	West Ham United U21	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5
19	Stoke City U21	5	1	1	3	8:7	+1	4
20	Derby County U21	4	1	1	2	9:12	-3	4
21	Arsenal U21	5	0	4	1	6:9	-3	4
22	Manchester City U21	3	1	0	2	7:6	+1	3
23	Burnley U21	5	1	0	4	8:10	-2	3
24	Blackburn Rovers U21	3	1	0	2	4:7	-3	3
25	Ipswich Town U21	3	1	0	2	6:10	-4	3
26	Birmingham City U21	3	0	2	1	5:7	-2	2
27	Middlesbrough U21	5	0	2	3	8:12	-4	2
28	West Bromwich Albion U21	3	0	1	2	8:11	-3	1
29	Leicester City U21	4	0	1	3	1:9	-8	1
30	Newcastle United U21	3	0	0	3	1:9	-8	0
31	Wolves U21	3	0	0	3	0:10	-10	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg137%2.48X23%3.99241%2.22

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.83 → 2.48 -12.4%X4.04 → 3.99 -1.2%21.95 → 2.22 +13.8%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.36	3.00	6.9%
Betfair	1.29	3.30	7.8%
Betano	1.35	2.85	9.2%
1xBet	1.31	2.92	10.6%
Marathonbet	1.31	2.92	10.6%
Best of all books	1.36	3.30	3.8%
Average	1.32	3.00	8.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.29	3.30	7.8%
William Hill	1.35	2.88	8.8%
1xBet	1.32	3.00	9.1%
Betano	1.34	2.90	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.32	2.92	10.0%
Best of all books	1.35	3.30	4.4%
Average	1.32	3.00	8.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Birmingham City U21 45%Draw 45%Derby County U21 10%

The statistical model rated Birmingham City U21 at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Derby County U21 at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.48 | 3.99 | 2.22, which imply roughly 40.3% for a Birmingham City U21 win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Premier League 2 Division One table: Birmingham City U21 are 26th (2 pts, 5-7 goals), Derby County U21 20th (4 pts, 9-12).

Over their last five matches, Birmingham City U21 averaged 1.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game; Derby County U21 averaged 2.3 scored and 3 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : Birmingham City U21 or draw and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.48	3.99	2.22

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.59	1.41	1.18

Draw no bet

1	2
2.05	1.68

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.32	3.00

1st half

1	X	2
2.93	2.60	2.58

2nd half

1	X	2
2.68	2.86	2.47

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.02	13.3	18.6
HT X	7.14	7.64	6.26
HT 2	20.2	13.0	3.35

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.00	27.0	1.73

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	19.0
1.5	1.07	6.28
2.5	1.32	3.00
3.5	1.84	1.86
4.5	2.80	1.36
5.5	4.79	1.13

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	13.0
1.75	1.07	5.75
2	1.09	5.30
2.25	1.20	3.70
2.75	1.38	2.72
3	1.47	2.41
3.25	1.67	2.06
3.75	2.05	1.66
4	2.36	1.49
4.25	2.61	1.41
4.75	3.34	1.24
5	4.35	1.14
5.25	4.65	1.12
6	8.10	1.02

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.5	2.62	1.48
-0.25	2.28	1.58
0	2.04	1.73
+0.25	1.80	1.93
+0.5	1.71	2.10
+0.75	1.49	2.46

16 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.40	1.01
-2	7.80	1.02
-1.75	5.50	1.08
-1.5	4.68	1.15
-1.25	4.25	1.17
-1	3.92	1.20
-0.75	2.98	1.34
+1	1.36	2.89
+1.25	1.30	3.20
+1.5	1.24	3.57
+1.75	1.17	4.40
+2	1.09	5.97
+2.25	1.16	5.25
+2.5	1.07	6.63
+3	1.06	10.5
+3.5	1.05	7.80

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9	1.43	2.54
9.5	1.63	2.08
10	1.84	1.82
10.5	2.11	1.62
11	2.55	1.43
11.5	2.88	1.34

Latest Premier League 2 Division One results

18 Oct	Brighton U21 3-3 AFC Bournemouth U21
18 Oct	Tottenham Hotspur U21 2-0 Leicester City U21
18 Oct	Brentford U21 1-2 Fulham U21
18 Oct	Leeds United U21 1-4 Crystal Palace U21
17 Oct	Liverpool U21 1-0 Reading U21
17 Oct	Burnley U21 0-1 Aston Villa U21