Leioa vs Real Sociedad III• Tercera División RFEF - Group 4, Spain

#13.2:1.216:00Tomorrow2.0:1.0#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.98BTNX3.35DAF23.60BTNMargin at best8.1%Books5Markets39Rating62 · 38Exp. goals L53.7

Price board · 1X2captured 14 Nov 16:15 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	1.98	3.40	3.45	8.9%
Dafabet	1.92	3.35	3.55	10.1%
1xBet	1.91	3.32	3.52	10.9%
Bet365	1.91	3.30	3.40	12.1%
Marathonbet	1.89	3.32	3.42	12.3%
Best of all books	1.98	3.40	3.55	8.1%
Average	1.92	3.34	3.47	10.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

LeioaReal Sociedad III

Last 10#1Table position#42.20Points per game1.8013Form pts · last 5103.2Goals for · last 52.01.2Goals against · last 51.062Attack rating3845Defence rating5557Form rating43100H2H rating071Goals model2962Overall rating38

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 13 Nov 06:01 UTC

Leioa

6W 3D 1L · goals 27:16 · per match 2.7 for, 1.6 against

7 Nov	H	Touring	4-2	W
31 Oct	A	Erandio	3-2	W
24 Oct	H	Sodupe	3-0	W
17 Oct	A	Deportivo Alavés III	2-2	D
10 Oct	H	Aurrerá Vitoria	4-0	W
4 Oct	A	Amurrio Club	5-0	W
26 Sep	H	Eibar III	2-1	W
20 Sep	A	R. Union B	3-3	D
13 Sep	H	Pasaia KE	1-1	D
9 Sep	A	Bergantiños	0-5	L

Real Sociedad III

5W 3D 2L · goals 20:13 · per match 2.0 for, 1.3 against

7 Nov	H	Erandio	4-1	W
31 Oct	A	Sodupe	3-0	W
25 Oct	H	Deportivo Alavés III	2-2	D
17 Oct	A	Aurrerá Vitoria	0-2	L
10 Oct	H	Amurrio Club	1-0	W
4 Oct	A	Eibar III	3-2	W
27 Sep	H	R. Union B	3-3	D
19 Sep	A	Pasaia KE	2-3	L
12 Sep	H	Lagun Onak	2-0	W
5 Sep	A	Derio	0-0	D

Head to head

2Leioa wins

0draws

0Real Sociedad III wins

2 meetings · goals 3:1 · last 2: 2W 0D 0L for Leioa

24 Jan 2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 4	Leioa2-1Real Sociedad III
14 Sep 2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 4	Real Sociedad III0-1Leioa

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 tableTercera: Group 4updated 14 Nov 20:10 UTC

In the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table, Leioa sit 1st with 22 points from 10 games, while Real Sociedad III are 4th with 18 points from 10.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Leioa	10	6	4	0	28:12	+16	22
2	Aurrerá Vitoria	10	7	1	2	17:14	+3	22
3	Deportivo Alavés III	11	6	3	2	25:10	+15	21
4	Real Sociedad III	10	5	3	2	20:13	+7	18
5	Touring	11	5	3	3	15:11	+4	18
6	Derio	11	5	3	3	15:13	+2	18
7	San Ignacio	11	5	2	4	18:12	+6	17
8	Durango	10	4	5	1	16:11	+5	17
9	Eibar III	11	5	2	4	18:14	+4	17
10	Aretxabaleta	11	5	2	4	12:15	-3	17
11	Sodupe	11	5	2	4	8:15	-7	17
12	Beasain	10	4	2	4	19:13	+6	14
13	Lagun Onak	10	3	2	5	11:14	-3	11
14	R. Union B	10	2	4	4	12:18	-6	10
15	Pasaia KE	11	3	1	7	14:25	-11	10
16	Santurtzi	11	3	0	8	7:14	-7	9
17	Erandio	11	2	0	9	9:19	-10	6
18	Amurrio Club	10	0	1	9	3:24	-21	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg147%1.92X27%3.32226%3.51

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.1% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.85	1.95	5.3%
1xBet	1.79	1.88	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.79	1.88	9.1%
Betano	1.78	1.88	9.4%
Best of all books	1.85	1.95	5.3%
Average	1.80	1.90	8.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.67	2.05	8.7%
Betano	1.67	2.05	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.67	2.01	9.6%
Best of all books	1.67	2.05	8.7%
Average	1.67	2.04	9.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Leioa 45%Draw 45%Real Sociedad III 10%

The statistical model rates Leioa at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Real Sociedad III at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.92 | 3.32 | 3.51, which imply roughly 52.1% for a Leioa win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table: Leioa are 1st (22 pts, 28-12 goals), Real Sociedad III 4th (18 pts, 20-13).

Over their last five matches, Leioa averaged 3.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Real Sociedad III averaged 2 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Leioa or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.92	3.34	3.47

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.23	1.73	1.24

Draw no bet

1	2
1.44	2.55

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.67	2.04

1st half

1	X	2
2.51	2.13	4.02

2nd half

1	X	2
2.26	2.49	3.62

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.07	14.0	32.0
HT X	5.02	5.27	8.03
HT 2	22.7	15.7	5.70

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.67	9.50	2.39

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	7.10
1.5	1.24	3.40
2.5	1.80	1.90
3.5	2.87	1.33
4.5	5.25	1.11

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	7.90
1.75	1.28	3.08
2	1.36	2.70
2.25	1.58	2.15
2.75	1.99	1.68
3	2.33	1.48
3.25	2.63	1.38
3.75	3.50	1.22
4	4.70	1.12

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.70	1.36
-0.75	2.16	1.57
-0.5	1.96	1.80
-0.25	1.66	2.01
0	1.43	2.53
+0.25	1.32	2.93

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	6.75	1.04
-2	6.05	1.06
-1.5	3.34	1.24
-1.25	3.05	1.28
+0.75	1.15	4.25
+1	1.06	6.35
+1.5	1.03	7.20

Next Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 matches

15 Nov

Aurrerá Vitoria – Beasain

All Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 fixtures and the table

Latest Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 results

8 Nov

Aretxabaleta 0-3 Aurrerá Vitoria