Castro vs Tropezón• Tercera División RFEF - Group 3, Spain

#111.0:1.00-2FT04/102.3:0.5#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.171XBX3.351XB22.301XBMargin at best4.9%Books5Markets37Rating28 · 72Exp. goals L52.4

Price board · 1X2captured 3 Oct 16:15 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	4.32	3.58	1.86	4.8%
Betano	4.10	3.30	1.85	8.7%
Pinnacle	4.08	3.09	1.86	10.6%
Marathonbet	4.10	3.18	1.78	12.0%
Bet365	4.33	3.50	1.65	12.3%
Best of all books	4.33	3.58	1.86	4.8%
Average	4.19	3.33	1.80	9.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

CastroTropezón

Last 10#11Table position#21.00Points per game3.005Form pts · last 5121.0Goals for · last 52.31.0Goals against · last 50.531Attack rating6933Defence rating6729Form rating710H2H rating10035Goals model6528Overall rating72

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 4 Oct 11:01 UTC

Castro

1W 3D 6L · goals 7:13 · per match 0.7 for, 1.3 against

27 Sep	H	Atlético Mineros	0-2	L
19 Sep	A	Revilla	2-2	D
13 Sep	H	Solares	2-0	W
6 Sep	A	Selaya	0-0	D
9 May	H	Tropezón	0-2	L
3 May	A	Cartes	0-0	D
26 Apr	H	Gimnástica Torrelavega	2-3	L
18 Apr	A	Revilla	1-2	L
12 Apr	H	Guarnizo	0-1	L
2 Apr	A	Colindres	0-1	L

Tropezón

7W 2D 1L · goals 14:3 · per match 1.4 for, 0.3 against

27 Sep	H	Revilla	2-0	W
19 Sep	A	Solares	2-1	W
12 Sep	H	Selaya	3-0	W
6 Sep	A	Laredo	2-1	W
20 Jun	A	Arnedo	0-1	L
13 Jun	H	Arnedo	1-0	W
6 Jun	A	Laredo	1-0	W
31 May	H	Laredo	0-0	D
24 May	H	Guarnizo	3-0	W
17 May	A	Guarnizo	0-0	D

Head to head

2Castro wins

2draws

8Tropezón wins

12 meetings · goals 8:21 · last 10: 2W 1D 7L for Castro

9 May 2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Castro0-2Tropezón
11 Jan 2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tropezón3-1Castro
24 May 2025Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs	Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs	Tropezón2-0Castro
18 May 2025Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs	Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs	Castro0-1Tropezón
19 Jan 2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tropezón1-0Castro
8 Sep 2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Castro2-1Tropezón
25 Feb 2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tropezón2-3Castro
8 Oct 2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Castro0-2Tropezón
22 Apr 2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Castro0-0Tropezón
8 Jan 2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 3	Tropezón3-1Castro

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 tableTercera: Group 3updated 10 Oct 19:21 UTC

In the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table, Castro sit 11th with 5 points from 5 games, while Tropezón are 2nd with 15 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Bezana	6	5	1	0	12:4	+8	16
2	Tropezón	5	5	0	0	11:2	+9	15
3	Laredo	5	4	0	1	12:2	+10	12
4	Revilla	6	3	2	1	13:8	+5	11
5	Vimenor	5	3	1	1	7:3	+4	10
6	Cayón	5	3	1	1	5:2	+3	10
7	Torina	5	2	3	0	8:2	+6	9
8	Sámano	5	2	2	1	12:6	+6	8
9	Selaya	5	2	1	2	5:7	-2	7
10	Atlético Mineros	5	2	0	3	4:11	-7	6
11	Castro	5	1	2	2	4:6	-2	5
12	Guarnizo	6	1	2	3	7:10	-3	5
13	Solares	6	1	2	3	5:8	-3	5
14	Escobedo	6	1	2	3	5:10	-5	5
15	Velarde	5	1	1	3	3:8	-5	4
16	Naval Reinosa	6	0	2	4	6:15	-9	2
17	Atlético Albericia	5	0	1	4	3:9	-6	1
18	Barquereño	5	0	1	4	2:11	-9	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg130%3.02X29%3.15241%2.22

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.9% margin.

1X2 since open average price

14.19 → 3.02 -27.9%X3.33 → 3.15 -5.4%21.80 → 2.22 +23.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	2.24	1.64	5.6%
Bet365	2.20	1.65	6.1%
Pinnacle	2.31	1.56	7.4%
Marathonbet	2.20	1.57	9.1%
Betano	2.07	1.60	10.8%
Best of all books	2.31	1.65	3.9%
Average	2.20	1.60	7.7%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	2.01	1.69	8.9%
Marathonbet	2.01	1.67	9.6%
Betano	1.93	1.70	10.6%
Best of all books	2.01	1.70	8.6%
Average	1.98	1.69	9.7%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Castro 0%Draw 50%Tropezón 50%

The statistical model rated Castro at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and Tropezón at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.02 | 3.15 | 2.22, which imply roughly 31.7% for the draw versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table: Castro are 11th (5 pts, 4-6 goals), Tropezón 2nd (15 pts, 11-2).

Over their last five matches, Castro averaged 1 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Tropezón averaged 2.3 scored and 0.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Tropezón.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
4.19	3.33	1.80

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.82	1.18	1.25

Draw no bet

1	2
3.13	1.31

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.98	1.69

1st half

1	X	2
4.85	2.02	2.52

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.82	7.40	1.59

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.06	6.83
1.5	1.40	2.67
2.5	2.20	1.60
3.5	3.89	1.19
4.5	7.35	1.04

9 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.08	5.88
1.25	1.23	3.67
1.75	1.49	2.35
2	1.67	2.05
2.25	1.96	1.77
2.75	2.60	1.40
3	3.33	1.26
3.25	3.80	1.21
4	6.95	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
0	2.97	1.33
+0.25	2.11	1.63
+0.5	1.89	1.85
+0.75	1.72	2.01
+1	1.40	2.60
+1.25	1.31	2.98

6 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1	9.00	1.01
-0.75	5.35	1.09
-0.25	3.50	1.24
+1.5	1.24	3.34
+2	1.05	6.50
+2.5	1.03	7.40

Latest Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 results

11 Oct	Cayón 0-0 Torina
4 Oct	Selaya 3-2 Naval Reinosa
27 Sep	Atlético Albericia 0-2 Solares
27 Sep	Tropezón 2-0 Revilla
26 Sep	Escobedo 2-1 Selaya