AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui• Ligue 1, Tunisia

#90.4:0.63-0FT18/10 · Abdelaziz Chtioui Stadium, La Marsa0.6:1.2#14

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.00WHX2.98PIN24.121XBMargin at best7.8%Books5Markets46Rating50 · 51 levelExp. goals L51.4

Price board · 1X2captured 18 Oct 12:00 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.01	2.99	4.06	7.8%
1xBet	1.94	2.85	4.12	10.9%
William Hill	2.00	2.75	4.00	11.4%
Bet365	1.90	2.90	4.00	12.1%
Marathonbet	1.92	2.85	4.00	12.2%
Best of all books	2.01	2.99	4.12	7.5%
Average	1.95	2.87	4.04	10.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

AS MarsaES Metlaoui

Last 10#9Table position#141.33Points per game0.508Form pts · last 530.4Goals for · last 50.60.6Goals against · last 51.240Attack rating6067Defence rating3363Form rating3840H2H rating60100Goals model050Overall rating51

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 22 Oct 17:01 UTC

AS Marsa

4W 3D 3L · goals 10:9 · per match 1.0 for, 0.9 against

18 Oct	H	ES Metlaoui	3-0	W
11 Oct	A	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	0-0	D
12 Sep	H	ES Sahel	1-0	W
6 Sep	A	ES Tunis	1-2	L
29 Aug	H	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	0-0	D
23 Aug	A	CA Bizertin	0-1	L
12 May	A	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	2-2	D
9 May	H	CS Sfaxien	0-3	L
4 May	A	CA Bizertin	2-1	W
30 Apr	H	ES Zarzis	1-0	W

ES Metlaoui

3W 1D 6L · goals 7:10 · per match 0.7 for, 1.0 against

11 Oct	H	Stade Tunisien	1-2	L
13 Sep	A	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	0-1	L
6 Sep	H	ES Hammam-Sousse	1-0	W
30 Aug	A	ES Sahel	1-2	L
23 Aug	H	Club Africain	0-1	L
17 May	H	ES Tunis	1-3	L
14 May	H	JS Kairouanaise	0-0	D
9 May	A	ES Zarzis	0-1	L
4 May	A	US Monastirienne	1-0	W
29 Apr	H	ES Sahel	2-0	W

Head to head

2AS Marsa wins

1draws

3ES Metlaoui wins

6 meetings · goals 4:6 · last 6: 2W 1D 3L for AS Marsa

13 Apr 2026Ligue 1	Ligue 1	ES Metlaoui1-0AS Marsa
19 Oct 2025Ligue 1	Ligue 1	AS Marsa0-1ES Metlaoui
12 May 2024Ligue 1	Ligue 1	AS Marsa1-0ES Metlaoui
18 Feb 2024Ligue 1	Ligue 1	ES Metlaoui3-1AS Marsa
3 Jan 2024Ligue 1	Ligue 1	ES Metlaoui0-1AS Marsa
22 Oct 2023Ligue 1	Ligue 1	AS Marsa1-1ES Metlaoui

Ligue 1 tableLigue 1updated 22 Oct 17:01 UTC

In the Ligue 1 table, AS Marsa sit 9th with 8 points from 6 games, while ES Metlaoui are 14th with 3 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	US Ben Guerdane	6	4	2	0	11:6	+5	14
2	ES Tunis	5	4	0	1	10:7	+3	12
3	Monastir	6	3	3	0	8:5	+3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	3	2	1	5:2	+3	11
5	Club Africain	4	3	0	1	4:2	+2	9
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	6	2	3	1	6:5	+1	9
7	CS Sfaxien	5	2	2	1	6:4	+2	8
8	CA Bizertin	5	2	2	1	3:3	0	8
9	AS Marsa	6	2	2	2	5:3	+2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	4	2	1	1	7:5	+2	7
11	ES Sahel	6	2	1	3	7:8	-1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	2	0	3	5:5	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	6	1	1	4	2:5	-3	4
14	ES Metlaoui	6	1	0	5	3:9	-6	3
15	Olympique Béja	6	0	2	4	5:10	-5	2
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	6	0	1	5	1:9	-8	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg146%1.95X31%2.87222%4.04

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.8% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	3.04	1.36	6.4%
Bet365	2.75	1.40	7.8%
1xBet	2.78	1.34	10.6%
Marathonbet	2.78	1.34	10.6%
Best of all books	3.04	1.40	4.3%
Average	2.84	1.36	8.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	2.38	1.53	7.4%
1xBet	2.36	1.50	9.0%
Marathonbet	2.36	1.48	9.9%
Best of all books	2.38	1.53	7.4%
Average	2.37	1.50	8.8%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

AS Marsa 35%Draw 35%ES Metlaoui 30%

The statistical model rated AS Marsa at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and ES Metlaoui at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.95 | 2.87 | 4.04, which imply roughly 51.3% for a AS Marsa win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the Ligue 1 table: AS Marsa are 9th (8 pts, 5-3 goals), ES Metlaoui 14th (3 pts, 3-9).

Over their last five matches, AS Marsa averaged 0.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game; ES Metlaoui averaged 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : AS Marsa or draw and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.95	2.87	4.04

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.17	1.72	1.33

Draw no bet

1	2
1.36	2.90

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.37	1.50

1st half

1	X	2
2.67	1.82	5.10

2nd half

1	X	2
2.43	2.04	4.70

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.15	17.4	45.7
HT X	4.47	3.79	8.27
HT 2	34.0	17.7	7.20

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.73	5.15	2.86

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.09	5.30
1.5	1.62	2.16
2.5	2.84	1.36
3.5	5.60	1.08
4.5	15.0	1.03

11 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.12	4.70
1	1.18	4.10
1.25	1.40	2.66
1.75	1.82	1.88
2	2.17	1.60
2.25	2.51	1.44
2.75	3.42	1.23
3	4.85	1.11
3.25	5.25	1.09
3.75	7.70	1.04
4	9.80	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	3.08	1.30
-0.75	2.30	1.53
-0.5	2.02	1.80
-0.25	1.66	2.07
0	1.37	2.80
+0.25	1.26	3.32

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.70	1.01
-2.25	8.38	1.01
-2	8.00	1.02
-1.75	5.15	1.10
-1.5	3.95	1.17
-1.25	3.56	1.23
+0.5	1.22	3.74
+0.75	1.10	5.20
+1	1.01	8.80
+1.25	1.01	9.38
+1.5	1.01	9.50

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.83	1.83

Next Ligue 1 matches

23 Oct	AS Marsa – CS Hammam-Lif
23 Oct	US Ben Guerdane – Stade Tunisien
23 Oct	CA Bizertin – ES Hammam-Sousse
23 Oct	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane – Olympique Béja

All Ligue 1 fixtures and the table

Latest Ligue 1 results

18 Oct	Olympique Béja 1-2 ES Sahel
18 Oct	US Monastirienne 1-0 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
18 Oct	CS Hammam-Lif 1-1 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
17 Oct	ES Hammam-Sousse 0-2 US Ben Guerdane
11 Oct	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0-0 AS Marsa
11 Oct	ES Zarzis 2-0 ES Hammam-Sousse