Concarneau vs Bastia• Ligue 3, France

#41.8:1.01-1FT17/10 · Stade Guy Piriou, Concarneau0.6:1.2#12

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.00PINX3.30B36523.921XBMargin at best5.8%Books6Markets53Rating51 · 49 levelExp. goals L52.3

Price board · 1X2captured 17 Oct 10:25 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	2.03	3.30	3.89	5.3%
BetVictor	1.95	3.20	3.70	9.6%
1xBet	1.90	3.08	3.92	10.6%
Bet365	1.91	3.30	3.50	11.2%
Marathonbet	1.88	3.08	3.82	11.8%
William Hill	1.95	2.90	3.60	13.5%
Best of all books	2.03	3.30	3.92	5.1%
Average	1.94	3.14	3.74	10.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

ConcarneauBastia

Last 10#4Table position#121.78Points per game1.2211Form pts · last 551.8Goals for · last 50.61.0Goals against · last 51.275Attack rating2555Defence rating4569Form rating3136H2H rating6430Goals model7051Overall rating49

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 17 Oct 02:02 UTC

Concarneau

5W 4D 1L · goals 17:9 · per match 1.7 for, 0.9 against

3 Oct	H	Gobelins	2-1	W
26 Sep	A	Bourg-en-bresse 01	1-1	D
19 Sep	H	Caen	2-0	W
12 Sep	A	Aubagne	2-1	W
5 Sep	H	Thionville Lusitanos	2-2	D
29 Aug	A	Valenciennes	0-0	D
20 Aug	H	Villefranche	2-0	W
14 Aug	A	Quevilly	1-1	D
7 Aug	H	Orleans	0-2	L
31 Jul	H	Pontivy GSI	5-1	W

Bastia

3W 3D 4L · goals 8:12 · per match 0.8 for, 1.2 against

1 Oct	H	Orleans	1-1	D
26 Sep	A	Gobelins	0-1	L
17 Sep	H	Cannes	1-1	D
12 Sep	A	Bourg-en-bresse 01	1-0	W
5 Sep	H	Amiens	0-3	L
27 Aug	A	Caen	1-0	W
20 Aug	H	Versailles	2-3	L
14 Aug	A	Aubagne	1-0	W
7 Aug	H	Le Puy Foot	0-2	L
24 Jul	A	Aubagne	1-1	D

Head to head

0Concarneau wins

4draws

1Bastia wins

5 meetings · goals 6:8 · last 5: 0W 4D 1L for Concarneau

23 Apr 2024Ligue 2	Ligue 2	Bastia2-0Concarneau
5 Aug 2023Ligue 2	Ligue 2	Concarneau0-0Bastia
5 Mar 2021Ligue 3	Ligue 3	Bastia1-1Concarneau
2 Oct 2020Ligue 3	Ligue 3	Concarneau1-1Bastia
5 Jan 2019Coupe de France	Coupe de France	SC Bastia4-4Concarneau

Ligue 3 tableNationalupdated 17 Oct 14:42 UTC

In the Ligue 3 table, Concarneau sit 4th with 16 points from 9 games, while Bastia are 12th with 11 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	La Roche VF	10	6	3	1	16:10	+6	21
2	Rouen	9	6	2	1	17:5	+12	20
3	Caen	10	6	0	4	19:13	+6	18
4	Concarneau	9	4	4	1	12:8	+4	16
5	Versailles	9	5	1	3	13:12	+1	16
6	Amiens	9	4	3	2	12:3	+9	15
7	Cannes	9	3	6	0	11:4	+7	15
8	Le Puy Foot	9	4	1	4	11:9	+2	13
9	Thionville Lusitanos	9	3	3	3	14:14	0	12
10	Fleury 91	9	3	3	3	15:12	+3	12
11	Gobelins	9	3	3	3	7:9	-2	12
12	Bastia	9	3	2	4	7:11	-4	11
13	Quevilly	9	2	4	3	8:12	-4	10
14	Orleans	9	2	3	4	7:11	-4	9
15	Valenciennes	9	2	2	5	9:14	-5	8
16	Aubagne	9	2	1	6	6:12	-6	7
17	Bourg-en-bresse 01	9	1	2	6	5:15	-10	5
18	Villefranche	9	1	1	7	7:22	-15	4

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg147%1.94X29%3.14224%3.74

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.88 → 1.93 +2.7%X3.18 → 3.12 -1.9%23.91 → 3.74 -4.3%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Pinnacle	2.30	1.63	4.8%
Bet365	2.20	1.65	6.1%
1xBet	2.24	1.55	9.2%
Marathonbet	2.24	1.55	9.2%
BetVictor	2.18	1.58	9.2%
Best of all books	2.30	1.65	4.1%
Average	2.23	1.59	7.6%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	2.20	1.62	7.2%
BetVictor	2.00	1.73	7.8%
1xBet	2.00	1.71	8.5%
Marathonbet	2.00	1.69	9.2%
William Hill	1.91	1.75	9.5%
Best of all books	2.20	1.75	2.6%
Average	2.02	1.70	8.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Concarneau 10%Draw 45%Bastia 45%

The statistical model rated Concarneau at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Bastia at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.94 | 3.14 | 3.74, which imply roughly 31.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Ligue 3 table: Concarneau are 4th (16 pts, 12-8 goals), Bastia 12th (11 pts, 7-11).

Over their last five matches, Concarneau averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Bastia averaged 0.6 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Bastia and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.94	3.14	3.74

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.19	1.72	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
1.42	2.66

Both teams to score

Yes	No
2.02	1.70

1st half

1	X	2
2.60	2.00	4.59

2nd half

1	X	2
2.34	2.26	4.10

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.99	16.3	45.0
HT X	4.58	4.50	8.20
HT 2	31.0	16.4	6.50

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.69	7.50	2.56

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.05	7.50
1.5	1.39	2.75
2.5	2.23	1.59
3.5	4.21	1.18
4.5	8.63	1.03
5.5	15.8	1.02
6.5	17.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.04	6.80
1	1.06	6.05
1.25	1.22	3.50
1.75	1.50	2.39
2	1.67	2.05
2.25	1.96	1.75
2.75	2.62	1.42
3	3.42	1.23
3.25	3.82	1.18
3.75	5.45	1.08
4	8.10	1.02
4.25	8.50	1.01

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.94	1.36
-0.75	2.27	1.56
-0.5	1.98	1.80
-0.25	1.67	2.08
0	1.40	2.72
+0.25	1.31	3.18

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	8.60	1.01
-2.25	7.73	1.05
-2	7.27	1.06
-1.75	4.76	1.14
-1.5	3.76	1.23
-1.25	3.36	1.28
+0.5	1.29	3.65
+0.75	1.13	4.87
+1	1.04	8.00
+1.25	1.01	9.57
+1.5	1.03	8.30

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
8.5	1.49	2.38
9	1.64	2.06
9.5	1.89	1.77
10	2.23	1.55
10.5	2.55	1.43

Latest Ligue 3 results

17 Oct	Aubagne 0-1 Le Puy Foot
17 Oct	Gobelins 3-1 Rouen
17 Oct	Villefranche 2-1 Cannes
17 Oct	Quevilly 3-2 Orleans
17 Oct	Bourg-en-bresse 01 0-1 Fleury 91
17 Oct	Thionville Lusitanos 1-2 Versailles