Noteć Czarnków vs Flota Świnoujście• III Liga - Group 2, Poland

#71.0:1.43-0FT03/101.0:2.8#13

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.301XBX4.081XB23.00PINMargin at best1.3%Books5Markets34Rating57 · 43Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 3 Oct 06:04 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	2.30	4.08	2.68	5.3%
BetVictor	2.25	3.60	2.70	9.3%
Betano	2.27	3.35	2.70	10.9%
Marathonbet	2.23	3.42	2.62	12.3%
Pinnacle	2.23	3.37	2.63	12.5%
Best of all books	2.30	4.08	2.70	5.0%
Average	2.26	3.56	2.67	9.9%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Noteć CzarnkówFlota Świnoujście

Last 10#7Table position#131.42Points per game1.174Form pts · last 541.0Goals for · last 51.01.4Goals against · last 52.850Attack rating5067Defence rating3350Form rating5050H2H rating5065Goals model3557Overall rating43

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 3 Oct 13:41 UTC

Noteć Czarnków

4W 1D 5L · goals 15:15 · per match 1.5 for, 1.5 against

26 Sep	A	Luzino	0-2	L
19 Sep	H	Polonia Środa	0-0	D
12 Sep	A	Lech Poznań II	1-2	L
5 Sep	H	Kluczevia Stargard	3-1	W
28 Aug	A	Wda Świecie	1-2	L
22 Aug	H	Elana Toruń	3-1	W
19 Aug	A	Kalisz	1-0	W
14 Aug	A	Unia Swarzędz	3-0	W
8 Aug	H	Grom Nowy Staw	0-2	L
31 Jul	A	Gedania Gdansk	3-5	L

Flota Świnoujście

4W 2D 4L · goals 15:19 · per match 1.5 for, 1.9 against

3 Oct	A	Noteć Czarnków	0-3	L
26 Sep	H	Unia Swarzędz	0-2	L
19 Sep	A	Grom Nowy Staw	0-5	L
12 Sep	H	Gedania Gdansk	1-1	D
5 Sep	A	Lipno Stęszew	3-1	W
29 Aug	H	Stargard Szczeciński	1-5	L
22 Aug	A	Chemik Bydgoszcz	1-1	D
19 Aug	H	Victoria Września	5-0	W
15 Aug	A	Bałtyk Koszalin	2-1	W
8 Aug	H	Kotwica Kórnik	2-0	W

Head to head

3Noteć Czarnków wins

1draws

2Flota Świnoujście wins

6 meetings · goals 15:9 · last 6: 3W 1D 2L for Noteć Czarnków

25 Mar 2026III Liga - Group 2	III Liga - Group 2	Flota Świnoujście2-4Noteć Czarnków
2 Aug 2025III Liga - Group 2	III Liga - Group 2	Noteć Czarnków1-1Flota Świnoujście
29 Mar 2025III Liga - Group 2	III Liga - Group 2	Noteć Czarnków4-0Flota Świnoujście
31 Aug 2024III Liga - Group 2	III Liga - Group 2	Flota Świnoujście2-1Noteć Czarnków
20 Apr 2024III Liga - Group 2	III Liga - Group 2	Noteć Czarnków2-3Flota Świnoujście
23 Sep 2023III Liga - Group 2	III Liga - Group 2	Flota Świnoujście1-3Noteć Czarnków

III Liga - Group 2 tableGroup IIupdated 17 Oct 14:02 UTC

In the III Liga - Group 2 table, Noteć Czarnków sit 7th with 17 points from 12 games, while Flota Świnoujście are 13th with 14 points from 12.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Polonia Środa	12	9	3	0	35:16	+19	30
2	Luzino	12	9	1	2	34:13	+21	28
3	Wda Świecie	12	6	3	3	19:18	+1	21
4	Stargard Szczeciński	13	5	4	4	32:25	+7	19
5	Kluczevia Stargard	11	6	1	4	19:18	+1	19
6	Lech Poznań II	11	5	3	3	22:21	+1	18
7	Noteć Czarnków	12	5	2	5	19:16	+3	17
8	Kalisz	12	4	5	3	18:19	-1	17
9	Grom Nowy Staw	13	5	1	7	30:29	+1	16
10	Bałtyk Koszalin	12	4	4	4	16:16	0	16
11	Gedania Gdansk	13	3	6	4	28:28	0	15
12	Unia Swarzędz	12	4	2	6	21:20	+1	14
13	Flota Świnoujście	12	4	2	6	15:21	-6	14
14	Elana Toruń	12	3	4	5	17:22	-5	13
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	2	6	5	19:26	-7	12
16	Victoria Września	12	2	5	5	12:23	-11	11
17	Kotwica Kórnik	12	3	2	7	19:33	-14	11
18	Lipno Stęszew	12	2	2	8	15:26	-11	8

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg142%2.18X25%3.60233%2.79

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 1.3% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.26 → 2.18 -3.5%X3.56 → 3.60 +1.1%22.67 → 2.79 +4.5%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.55	2.42	5.8%
Marathonbet	1.54	2.27	9.0%
BetVictor	1.56	2.22	9.1%
Pinnacle	1.54	2.25	9.4%
Betano	1.53	2.18	11.2%
Best of all books	1.56	2.42	5.4%
Average	1.54	2.27	8.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
BetVictor	1.45	2.50	9.0%
1xBet	1.46	2.46	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.46	2.41	10.0%
Best of all books	1.46	2.50	8.5%
Average	1.46	2.46	9.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Noteć Czarnków 45%Draw 45%Flota Świnoujście 10%

The statistical model rated Noteć Czarnków at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Flota Świnoujście at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.18 | 3.60 | 2.79, which imply roughly 45.9% for a Noteć Czarnków win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the III Liga - Group 2 table: Noteć Czarnków are 7th (17 pts, 19-16 goals), Flota Świnoujście 13th (14 pts, 15-21).

Over their last five matches, Noteć Czarnków averaged 1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Flota Świnoujście averaged 1 scored and 2.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Noteć Czarnków or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.26	3.56	2.67

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.37	1.50	1.23

Draw no bet

1	2
1.69	2.00

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.46	2.46

1st half

1	X	2
2.81	2.30	3.23

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.81	15.8	1.97

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.14	4.69
2.5	1.54	2.27
3.5	2.29	1.53
4.5	4.03	1.19
5.5	7.97	1.04

8 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1.75	1.17	4.00
2	1.21	3.58
2.25	1.39	2.72
2.75	1.67	2.01
3	1.85	1.81
3.25	2.11	1.64
3.75	2.67	1.37
4	3.28	1.25

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.59	1.40
-0.5	2.23	1.57
-0.25	1.95	1.72
0	1.70	2.00
+0.25	1.51	2.29
+0.5	1.41	2.58

7 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2	7.30	1.03
-1.5	4.05	1.16
-1.25	3.70	1.20
-1	3.26	1.26
+0.75	1.28	3.08
+1	1.15	4.25
+1.5	1.11	4.95