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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec• I Liga, Poland

#11.6:1.219:30Today · Stadion Miejski, Grodzisk Mazowiecki0.8:2.6#15

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.21PINX3.69PIN23.06PINMargin at best5.0%Books10Markets80Rating64 · 36Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 30 Oct 04:43 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle2.213.693.065.0%
Dafabet2.153.603.057.1%
Betano2.153.453.058.3%
BetVictor2.103.602.909.9%
1xBet2.083.502.9510.5%
Betfair2.103.502.9010.7%
Bet3652.103.303.0011.3%
Marathonbet2.063.502.8811.8%
William Hill2.103.302.9012.4%
SBO2.003.252.7716.9%
Best of all books2.213.693.065.0%
Average2.103.472.9510.3%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiStal Mielec
Last 10#1Table position#151.75Points per game1.086Form pts · last 541.6Goals for · last 50.81.2Goals against · last 52.667Attack rating3368Defence rating3260Form rating4050H2H rating5089Goals model1164Overall rating36

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 30 Oct 00:02 UTC

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

3W 2D 5L · goals 16:20 · per match 1.6 for, 2.0 against

25 OctARuch Chorzów0-2L
17 OctHPolonia Warszawa0-1L
10 OctAChrobry Głogów4-0W
2 OctARadomiak Radom2-7L
19 SepHŁKS Łódź2-0W
13 SepAUnia Skierniewice2-3L
4 SepHWarta Poznań1-0W
1 SepAPodhale Nowy Targ1-3L
28 AugHNieciecza2-2D
22 AugAPolonia Bytom2-2D

Stal Mielec

2W 3D 5L · goals 13:25 · per match 1.3 for, 2.5 against

24 OctHChrobry Głogów0-0D
17 OctAMiedz Legnica0-3L
11 OctHWarta Poznań2-1W
19 SepALechia Gdansk1-7L
14 SepHNieciecza1-2L
5 SepHOdra Opole1-1D
2 SepAGórnik Łęczna3-3D
29 AugAPogoń Siedlce0-2L
23 AugAŁKS Łódź0-4L
16 AugHPolonia Bytom5-2W

Head to head

1Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins
0draws
1Stal Mielec wins

2 meetings · goals 3:3 · last 2: 1W 0D 1L for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

6 Apr 2026I LigaI LigaPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki1-2Stal Mielec
19 Sep 2025I LigaI LigaStal Mielec1-2Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

I Liga tableI Ligaupdated 30 Oct 00:20 UTC

In the I Liga table, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki sit 1st with 21 points from 12 games, while Stal Mielec are 15th with 13 points from 12.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki1263319:11+821
2Ruch Chorzów1263316:11+521
3Polonia Warszawa1263319:14+521
4ŁKS Łódź1263315:11+421
5Nieciecza1262419:17+220
6Lechia Gdansk1261522:19+319
7Miedz Legnica1253418:11+718
8Warta Poznań1260619:16+318
9Polonia Bytom1246220:20018
10Stal Rzeszów1252516:22-617
11Pogoń Siedlce1243514:15-115
12Arka Gdynia1242616:16014
13Podbeskidzie1228215:16-114
14Chrobry Głogów1234513:15-213
15Stal Mielec1234516:27-1113
16Puszcza Niepołomice1240813:17-412
17Odra Opole123368:13-512
18Unia Skierniewice1232713:20-711

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg143%2.10X26%3.47231%2.95

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

27 Oct 00:0030 Oct 05:301 2.10X 3.472 2.95
12.09 → 2.10 +0.5%X3.50 → 3.47 -0.9%23.01 → 2.95 -2.0%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle1.582.385.3%
Bet3651.572.356.2%
Betano1.572.326.8%
Betfair1.502.408.3%
BetVictor1.552.259.0%
1xBet1.522.319.1%
Marathonbet1.522.319.1%
Best of all books1.582.405.0%
Average1.542.337.6%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3651.502.506.7%
Betfair1.442.637.5%
Betano1.472.527.7%
1xBet1.462.508.5%
BetVictor1.452.509.0%
Marathonbet1.462.459.3%
William Hill1.442.4510.3%
Best of all books1.502.634.7%
Average1.462.518.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 45%Draw 45%Stal Mielec 10%

The statistical model rates Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Stal Mielec at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.10 | 3.47 | 2.95, which imply roughly 47.6% for a Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the I Liga table: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are 1st (21 pts, 19-11 goals), Stal Mielec 15th (13 pts, 16-27).

Over their last five matches, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Stal Mielec averaged 0.8 scored and 2.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.103.472.95

Double chance

1XX212
1.341.631.25

Draw no bet

12
1.602.22

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.462.51

1st half

1X2
2.602.333.42

2nd half

1X2
2.422.683.12

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 13.2812.925.8
HT X5.585.927.27
HT 222.113.54.79

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.7316.12.09

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0213.0
1.51.154.79
2.51.542.33
3.52.351.53
4.54.141.19
5.57.701.05
6.514.31.02
7.529.01.01
13 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.019.90
1.251.046.75
1.751.154.30
21.193.82
2.251.362.75
2.751.662.07
31.871.84
3.252.101.65
3.752.701.37
43.341.24
4.253.731.20
4.755.051.10
57.001.04

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.752.441.49
-0.52.121.67
-0.251.861.87
01.592.24
+0.251.442.57
+0.51.373.06
11 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.57.901.02
-27.071.06
-1.754.781.13
-1.53.781.21
-1.253.481.26
-13.091.32
+0.751.243.64
+11.125.23
+1.251.105.67
+1.51.096.05
+1.751.028.00

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
7.51.065.51
8.51.213.52
9.51.452.50
10.51.722.03
11.52.091.67
12.52.671.40
13.53.801.18
14.55.511.06
15.56.511.03
23 more lines
LineOverUnder
7.751.075.28
81.095.05
8.251.154.12
8.751.243.37
91.263.20
9.251.352.80
9.751.482.41
101.582.25
10.251.642.11
10.751.821.88
111.991.75
11.252.041.69
11.752.301.53
122.531.46
12.252.641.40
12.753.061.29
133.481.22
13.253.641.20
13.754.341.13
145.141.08
14.255.331.07
14.755.861.05
157.181.01

Next I Liga matches

31 OctPodbeskidzie – Warta Poznań
31 OctMiedz Legnica – Nieciecza
31 OctLechia Gdansk – Unia Skierniewice
2 NovPolonia Bytom – Odra Opole
2 NovŁKS Łódź – Polonia Warszawa
2 NovStal Rzeszów – Puszcza Niepołomice

All I Liga fixtures and the table

Latest I Liga results

26 OctWarta Poznań 0-1 ŁKS Łódź
25 OctPodbeskidzie 2-1 Stal Rzeszów
25 OctRuch Chorzów 2-0 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
25 OctOdra Opole 0-1 Pogoń Siedlce
24 OctPuszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Lechia Gdansk
24 OctArka Gdynia 3-1 Nieciecza