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São Bernardo vs Vila Nova• Serie B, Brazil

#111.2:1.23-2FT24/10 · Estadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do Campo1.4:0.4#2

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.08PINX3.20BTN22.52PINMargin at best3.4%Books9Markets80Rating37 · 63Exp. goals L52.1

Price board · 1X2captured 24 Oct 18:00 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
Pinnacle3.113.052.573.9%
Dafabet3.103.202.424.8%
Betano2.953.252.376.9%
Bet3653.103.002.407.3%
Betfair3.003.102.407.3%
1xBet2.962.952.488.0%
Marathonbet2.932.952.468.7%
William Hill2.902.902.459.8%
BetVictor2.883.002.3011.5%
Best of all books3.113.252.571.8%
Average2.993.042.437.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

São BernardoVila Nova
Last 10#11Table position#21.40Points per game1.775Form pts · last 5111.2Goals for · last 51.41.2Goals against · last 50.446Attack rating5425Defence rating7531Form rating690H2H rating10050Goals model5037Overall rating63

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 24 Oct 00:10 UTC

São Bernardo

4W 2D 4L · goals 13:10 · per match 1.3 for, 1.0 against

18 OctHCriciuma0-1L
11 OctAJuventude2-2D
6 OctASport Recife1-2L
2 OctHCRB3-1W
25 SepANovorizontino0-0D
19 SepHAtletico Goianiense1-0W
14 SepAAmerica Mineiro2-0W
10 SepHLondrina1-2L
6 SepAPonte Preta2-0W
28 AugAGoias1-2L

Vila Nova

6W 3D 1L · goals 13:8 · per match 1.3 for, 0.8 against

18 OctHNovorizontino2-2D
11 OctANautico Recife2-0W
7 OctHCuiaba0-0D
3 OctABotafogo SP1-0W
25 SepHLondrina2-0W
18 SepHAmerica Mineiro1-0W
15 SepAAvai1-1D
10 SepHGoias2-0W
4 SepAAthletic Club0-5L
30 AugHCeara2-0W

Head to head

0São Bernardo wins
0draws
1Vila Nova wins

1 meeting · goals 1:2 · last 1: 0W 0D 1L for São Bernardo

6 Jul 2026Serie BSerie BVila Nova2-1São Bernardo

Serie B tableSerie Bupdated 26 Oct 01:20 UTC

In the Serie B table, São Bernardo sit 11th with 49 points from 35 games, while Vila Nova are 2nd with 62 points from 35.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Novorizontino351810762:30+3264
2Vila Nova35188950:36+1462
3Juventude341710741:23+1861
4Fortaleza EC351613643:31+1261
5Criciuma351781036:30+659
6CRB351671253:49+455
7Sport Recife351412947:38+954
8Atletico Goianiense351412942:33+954
9Operario-PR351491245:46-151
10Goias341471334:40-649
11São Bernardo3513101249:39+1049
12Botafogo SP351381440:38+247
13Cuiaba341114932:27+547
14Athletic Club3510141140:40044
15Nautico Recife3411101339:42-343
16Ceara3411101337:42-543
17Avai351071833:45-1237
18Londrina35881944:51-732
19America Mineiro34552422:54-3220
20Ponte Preta35362621:76-5515

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg131%2.99X31%3.04238%2.43

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 3.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

21 Oct 00:0124 Oct 01:101 2.96X 3.052 2.44
12.74 → 2.96 +8.0%X3.02 → 3.05 +1.0%22.56 → 2.44 -4.7%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Pinnacle2.391.614.0%
Betano2.221.655.7%
Bet3652.351.576.2%
1xBet2.231.607.3%
Marathonbet2.231.607.3%
Betfair2.251.578.1%
BetVictor2.191.589.0%
Best of all books2.391.652.4%
Average2.271.606.7%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
Bet3652.001.737.8%
Betfair1.911.807.9%
William Hill1.911.807.9%
BetVictor1.931.788.0%
1xBet1.871.838.1%
Betano1.881.828.1%
Marathonbet1.871.818.7%
Best of all books2.001.834.6%
Average1.911.808.0%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

São Bernardo 10%Draw 45%Vila Nova 45%

The statistical model rated São Bernardo at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Vila Nova at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.99 | 3.04 | 2.43, which imply roughly 32.9% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie B table: São Bernardo are 11th (49 pts, 49-39 goals), Vila Nova 2nd (62 pts, 50-36).

Over their last five matches, São Bernardo averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Vila Nova averaged 1.4 scored and 0.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Vila Nova.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

São Bernardo

5-4-1

Coach: Vinícius Bergantin

Goalkeeper

  • 1Alex Alves

Defence

  • 2Rodrigo Ferreira
  • 77Marcão
  • 35Jemerson
  • 90Luizão
  • 6Pará

Midfield

  • 31Lucas Fernandes
  • 14Lucas Lima
  • 26Eduardo
  • 29Pedrinho

Attack

  • 10Fabrício Daniel
Substitutes (12)
  • 33Mário Sérgio
  • 89Daniel Amorim
  • 27Echaporã
  • 8Foguinho
  • 42Hyoran
  • 3Hélder
  • 30Breninho
  • 36João Vitor Rodrigues Galdino
  • 21Hugo Sanches
  • 37D. Davi
  • 12Júnior Oliveira
  • 97Augusto

Vila Nova

4-2-3-1

Coach: Guto Ferreira

Goalkeeper

  • 1Helton Leite

Defence

  • 22Hayner
  • 4Douglas Mendes
  • 23Jonathan Costa
  • 6Higor

Midfield

  • 5João Vieira
  • 21Higor Meritão
  • 17Everton Galdino
  • 10Marquinhos Gabriel
  • 99Janderson

Attack

  • 7André Luís
Substitutes (11)
  • 14Anderson
  • 8Willian Maranhão
  • 3Tiago Pagnussat
  • 20Nathan Camargo
  • 9Lincoln
  • 16Igor Cariús
  • 70Emerson Urso
  • 31Dodô
  • 49Dellatorre
  • 11Ryan Lima
  • 29Dalberson

Match Statistics

São BernardoVila Nova
1.57Expected Goals1.94
511Passes accurate256
8Shots insidebox9
8Shots outsidebox4
2Blocked Shots4
15Free Kicks16
7Shots on Goal5
3Goalkeeper Saves3
7Shots off Goal4
1Offsides1
582Total passes317
16Total Shots13
2Yellow Cards1
8Corner Kicks3
0Red Cards1
16Fouls15
65%Ball Possession35%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
2.993.042.43

Double chance

1XX212
1.521.371.34

Draw no bet

12
2.051.70

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.911.80

1st half

1X2
3.651.983.15

2nd half

1X2
3.282.242.83

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 14.8914.331.8
HT X6.544.315.64
HT 235.414.53.90

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
2.137.201.95

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.067.57
1.51.392.79
2.52.271.60
3.54.231.19
4.58.721.04
5.518.31.02
6.550.5–
12 more lines
LineOverUnder
0.751.056.70
11.066.00
1.251.213.59
1.751.502.42
21.672.08
2.251.971.77
2.752.621.43
33.221.26
3.253.601.21
3.755.111.10
47.501.03
4.257.901.02

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-0.52.961.38
-0.252.501.48
02.061.72
+0.251.712.06
+0.51.552.41
+0.751.352.99
12 more lines
LineHomeAway
-2.513.01.01
-1.758.821.01
-1.56.601.07
-1.256.091.08
-15.651.11
-0.753.731.24
+11.194.25
+1.251.164.76
+1.51.135.14
+1.751.066.90
+21.019.50
+2.51.0310.0

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
4.52.201.62

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
6.51.017.19
7.51.144.28
8.51.303.08
9.51.582.26
10.51.931.82
11.52.461.49
12.53.271.27
13.54.931.09
14.56.351.03
24 more lines
LineOverUnder
6.751.026.91
71.036.64
7.251.085.14
7.751.154.08
81.173.88
8.251.253.28
8.751.362.74
91.442.62
9.251.512.34
9.751.682.06
101.801.96
10.251.881.83
10.752.111.64
112.281.57
11.252.401.48
11.752.771.36
123.111.28
12.253.261.25
12.753.881.17
134.571.12
13.254.751.10
13.755.791.05
147.141.01
14.256.151.04

Next Serie B matches

26 OctAmerica Mineiro – Cuiaba
26 OctJuventude – Nautico Recife
27 OctCeara – Goias

All Serie B fixtures and the table

Latest Serie B results

24 OctPonte Preta 2-2 Fortaleza EC
24 OctCRB 2-1 Londrina
24 OctAtletico Goianiense 0-1 Novorizontino
24 OctAvai 0-2 Botafogo SP
24 OctSport Recife 2-1 Criciuma
23 OctOperario-PR 1-0 Athletic Club