Sarasota Paradise vs Naples• USL League One, USA

#113.6:1.422:30Today · Premier Sports Campus1.6:0.6#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.96PINX3.70B36523.321XBMargin at best8.2%Books6Markets62Rating48 · 53 levelExp. goals L53.6

Price board · 1X2captured 21 Oct 20:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.96	3.58	3.31	9.2%
1xBet	1.93	3.45	3.32	10.9%
Marathonbet	1.91	3.45	3.24	12.2%
William Hill	1.95	3.30	3.25	12.4%
Bet365	1.91	3.70	3.00	12.7%
BetVictor	1.83	3.20	2.90	20.4%
Best of all books	1.96	3.70	3.32	8.2%
Average	1.92	3.45	3.17	12.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Sarasota ParadiseNaples

Last 10#11Table position#91.30Points per game1.3312Form pts · last 5133.6Goals for · last 51.61.4Goals against · last 50.669Attack rating3130Defence rating7048Form rating5233H2H rating6762Goals model3848Overall rating53

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 21 Oct 02:50 UTC

Sarasota Paradise

6W 3D 1L · goals 26:13 · per match 2.6 for, 1.3 against

17 Oct	A	Fort Wayne	3-1	W
10 Oct	H	Richmond Kickers	3-2	W
3 Oct	H	Charlotte Independence	2-3	L
26 Sep	A	Portland Hearts of Pine	4-1	W
19 Sep	H	Greenville Triumph	6-0	W
12 Sep	A	Forward Madison	1-1	D
5 Sep	H	Spokane Velocity	1-1	D
2 Sep	A	NY Cosmos	2-1	W
22 Aug	A	Union Omaha	1-1	D
19 Aug	H	Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-2	W

Naples

6W 2D 2L · goals 12:10 · per match 1.2 for, 1.0 against

11 Oct	A	Corpus Christi	1-0	W
7 Oct	H	Richmond Kickers	2-0	W
3 Oct	H	NY Cosmos	2-1	W
26 Sep	H	Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-0	W
19 Sep	A	Fort Wayne	2-2	D
11 Sep	A	One Knoxville	0-0	D
5 Sep	H	Boise	0-2	L
29 Aug	A	Greenville Triumph	0-4	L
26 Aug	H	Union Omaha	2-0	W
23 Aug	A	Alta	2-1	W

Head to head

1Sarasota Paradise wins

0draws

2Naples wins

3 meetings · goals 3:4 · last 3: 1W 0D 2L for Sarasota Paradise

6 Jun 2026USL League One Cup	USL League One Cup	Naples0-2Sarasota Paradise
11 Apr 2026USL League One	USL League One	Naples2-0Sarasota Paradise
18 Mar 2025US Open Cup	US Open Cup	Sarasota Paradise1-2Naples

USL League One tableUSL League Oneupdated 21 Oct 04:30 UTC

In the USL League One table, Sarasota Paradise sit 11th with 39 points from 30 games, while Naples are 9th with 40 points from 30.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	31	20	6	5	73:42	+31	66
2	Union Omaha	31	19	4	8	54:34	+20	61
3	Forward Madison	31	16	7	8	54:30	+24	55
4	Boise	31	16	7	8	49:41	+8	55
5	One Knoxville	32	15	9	8	52:36	+16	54
6	Spokane Velocity	30	16	5	9	47:40	+7	53
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	31	14	4	13	50:44	+6	46
8	Fort Wayne	31	12	9	10	47:40	+7	45
9	Naples	30	12	4	14	35:44	-9	40
10	Westchester SC	31	11	6	14	53:49	+4	39
11	Sarasota Paradise	30	11	6	13	45:46	-1	39
12	Corpus Christi	31	9	9	13	34:49	-15	36
13	Alta	31	8	9	14	38:46	-8	33
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	31	7	10	14	44:57	-13	31
15	Greenville Triumph	31	7	6	18	36:60	-24	27
16	Richmond Kickers	31	7	5	19	37:64	-27	26
17	NY Cosmos	30	7	4	19	36:62	-26	25

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg146%1.91X26%3.45228%3.17

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 8.2% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.81 → 1.91 +5.5%X3.56 → 3.45 -3.1%23.74 → 3.17 -15.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.65	2.20	6.1%
Pinnacle	1.62	2.24	6.4%
1xBet	1.61	2.13	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.61	2.13	9.1%
BetVictor	1.50	1.88	19.9%
Best of all books	1.65	2.24	5.2%
Average	1.60	2.12	9.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.55	2.25	9.0%
1xBet	1.53	2.28	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.53	2.24	10.0%
BetVictor	1.40	2.05	20.2%
Best of all books	1.55	2.28	8.4%
Average	1.50	2.21	11.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Sarasota Paradise 35%Draw 35%Naples 30%

The statistical model rates Sarasota Paradise at 35% to win, the draw at 35% and Naples at 30% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.91 | 3.45 | 3.17, which imply roughly 52.4% for a Sarasota Paradise win versus the model's 35%.

Form context from the USL League One table: Sarasota Paradise are 11th (39 pts, 45-46 goals), Naples 9th (40 pts, 35-44).

Over their last five matches, Sarasota Paradise averaged 3.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game; Naples averaged 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Sarasota Paradise or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.91	3.45	3.17

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.26	1.72	1.20

Draw no bet

1	2
1.44	2.33

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.50	2.21

1st half

1	X	2
2.45	2.22	3.66

2nd half

1	X	2
2.30	2.54	3.44

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.88	14.8	29.0
HT X	5.07	6.00	8.10
HT 2	21.7	15.0	5.67

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.64	13.8	2.30

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	13.0
1.5	1.15	3.74
2.5	1.60	2.12
3.5	2.40	1.42
4.5	4.00	1.13
5.5	6.80	1.02

14 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.75
1	1.02	8.70
1.25	1.08	5.55
1.75	1.20	3.68
2	1.26	3.34
2.25	1.42	2.43
2.75	1.73	1.88
3	1.94	1.67
3.25	2.18	1.52
3.75	2.92	1.31
4	3.74	1.19
4.25	4.05	1.16
4.75	5.40	1.09
5	7.30	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	2.61	1.36
-0.75	2.10	1.60
-0.5	1.90	1.75
-0.25	1.69	1.96
0	1.44	2.38
+0.25	1.36	2.79

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	6.55	1.05
-2.25	5.23	1.10
-2	5.80	1.07
-1.75	4.20	1.15
-1.5	3.22	1.28
-1.25	2.88	1.30
+0.75	1.18	3.92
+1	1.08	5.70
+1.25	1.06	6.05
+1.5	1.05	6.50
+1.75	1.01	8.40

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.12	4.54
7.5	1.31	2.96
8.5	1.60	2.17
9.5	2.01	1.75
10.5	2.59	1.41
11.5	3.58	1.20
12.5	5.33	1.07

6 more lines

Line	Over	Under
7	1.15	4.09
8	1.40	2.64
9	1.77	1.93
10	2.32	1.52
11	3.25	1.25
12	4.92	1.09

Next USL League One matches

21 Oct

NY Cosmos – Spokane Velocity

All USL League One fixtures and the table

Latest USL League One results

18 Oct	Spokane Velocity 1-0 Chattanooga Red Wolves
18 Oct	Boise 2-1 Alta
17 Oct	Fort Wayne 1-3 Sarasota Paradise
17 Oct	Greenville Triumph 0-3 Charlotte Independence
17 Oct	Westchester SC 2-1 Union Omaha
17 Oct	Richmond Kickers 5-1 Corpus Christi