Alfreton Town vs Southport• FA Trophy, England

2.0:1.00-1FTToday0.0:0.0

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.55BTNX3.60DAF22.50WHMargin at best7.0%Books9Markets47Rating34 · 67Exp. goals L51.5

Price board · 1X2captured 14 Nov 13:14 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Dafabet	2.60	3.50	2.50	7.0%
Betano	2.55	3.45	2.45	9.0%
Pinnacle	2.45	3.42	2.47	10.5%
Bet365	2.45	3.40	2.45	11.0%
1xBet	2.42	3.42	2.42	11.9%
Marathonbet	2.42	3.42	2.42	11.9%
Betfair	2.45	3.40	2.40	11.9%
William Hill	2.50	3.20	2.45	12.1%
BetVictor	2.30	3.13	2.25	19.9%
Best of all books	2.60	3.50	2.50	7.0%
Average	2.46	3.37	2.42	11.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Alfreton TownSouthport

Last 107Form pts · last 512.0Goals for · last 50.01.0Goals against · last 50.0100Attack rating00Defence rating100100Form rating029H2H rating710Goals model034Overall rating67

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 12 Nov 06:00 UTC

Alfreton Town

4W 2D 4L · goals 10:16 · per match 1.0 for, 1.6 against

10 Nov	A	Workington	0-3	L
6 Nov	A	Quorn	0-4	L
31 Oct	H	AFC Emley	2-1	W
24 Oct	A	Mickleover Sports	2-1	W
17 Oct	H	Warrington Town	1-1	D
13 Oct	A	Ashton United	0-0	D
10 Oct	H	Bury	2-3	L
6 Oct	H	United of Manchester	1-0	W
3 Oct	A	Redcar Athletic	1-3	L
29 Sep	H	Guiseley AFC	1-0	W

Southport

1W 2D 7L · goals 6:19 · per match 0.6 for, 1.9 against

7 Nov	A	South Shields	1-5	L
31 Oct	H	AFC Telford United	1-2	L
24 Oct	A	King's Lynn Town	0-0	D
17 Oct	H	Radcliffe	0-2	L
10 Oct	A	Harborough Town	0-1	L
26 Sep	H	Spennymoor Town	2-2	D
19 Sep	A	Morecambe	0-2	L
12 Sep	A	Worksop Town	0-2	L
8 Sep	H	Morecambe	2-1	W
5 Sep	A	Spalding United	0-2	L

Head to head

9Alfreton Town wins

6draws

6Southport wins

21 meetings · goals 37:26 · last 10: 3W 3D 4L for Alfreton Town

17 Mar 2026National League - North	National League - North	Southport2-1Alfreton Town
16 Dec 2025National League - North	National League - North	Alfreton Town1-1Southport
4 Feb 2025National League - North	National League - North	Alfreton Town0-2Southport
10 Aug 2024National League - North	National League - North	Southport3-1Alfreton Town
27 Jan 2024National League - North	National League - North	Southport2-3Alfreton Town
12 Aug 2023National League - North	National League - North	Alfreton Town3-1Southport
21 Mar 2023National League - North	National League - North	Southport0-0Alfreton Town
20 Aug 2022National League - North	National League - North	Alfreton Town4-0Southport
26 Mar 2022National League - North	National League - North	Alfreton Town2-2Southport
23 Nov 2021National League - North	National League - North	Southport2-0Alfreton Town

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg136%2.46X27%3.37237%2.42

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.0% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.48 → 2.47 -0.4%X3.49 → 3.42 -2.0%22.33 → 2.40 +3.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.65	2.20	6.1%
Betfair	1.57	2.25	8.1%
Pinnacle	1.59	2.19	8.6%
1xBet	1.59	2.17	9.0%
Marathonbet	1.59	2.17	9.0%
Betano	1.60	2.15	9.0%
BetVictor	1.49	1.88	20.3%
Best of all books	1.65	2.25	5.1%
Average	1.58	2.14	9.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.50	2.45	7.5%
Betfair	1.45	2.55	8.2%
1xBet	1.50	2.38	8.7%
Betano	1.50	2.37	8.9%
Marathonbet	1.50	2.34	9.4%
BetVictor	1.40	2.05	20.2%
Best of all books	1.50	2.55	5.9%
Average	1.47	2.36	10.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Alfreton Town 0%Draw 50%Southport 50%

The statistical model rated Alfreton Town at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and Southport at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.46 | 3.37 | 2.42, which imply roughly 29.7% for the draw versus the model's 50%.

Over their last five matches, Alfreton Town averaged 2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Southport averaged 0 scored and 0 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Southport and -3.5 goals (goal line signal: under 3.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.46	3.37	2.42

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.47	1.44	1.25

Draw no bet

1	2
1.79	1.77

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.48	2.36

1st half

1	X	2
3.00	2.28	2.93

2nd half

1	X	2
2.74	2.59	2.71

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	4.02	13.0	23.8
HT X	6.30	5.88	6.16
HT 2	24.0	13.2	3.88

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.93	14.3	1.90

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.02	13.2
1.5	1.15	4.11
2.5	1.58	2.14
3.5	2.39	1.45
4.5	3.97	1.15
5.5	6.75	1.04

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.02	9.90
1.25	1.07	5.95
1.75	1.19	3.86
2	1.23	3.13
2.25	1.40	2.47
2.75	1.70	1.90
3	1.92	1.70
3.25	2.14	1.54
3.75	2.73	1.33
4	3.68	1.20
4.25	4.00	1.17
4.75	5.40	1.09
5	7.50	1.03

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.88	1.34
-0.5	2.26	1.43
-0.25	2.07	1.58
0	1.82	1.82
+0.25	1.58	2.05
+0.5	1.44	2.26

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	9.35	1.02
-1.75	6.10	1.06
-1.5	4.70	1.12
-1.25	4.30	1.15
-1	3.88	1.18
+0.75	1.33	2.88
+1	1.18	3.86
+1.25	1.15	4.30
+1.5	1.12	4.70
+1.75	1.06	6.05
+2.5	1.03	8.95

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
9	1.85	1.95
9.5	2.10	1.67

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