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Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig• UEFA Champions League, World

#103.0:2.04-1FTToday · Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid1.0:2.0#23

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.271XBX7.80DAF211.6PINMargin at best0.2%Books10Markets117Rating67 · 33Exp. goals L54.0

Price board · 1X2captured 21 Oct 16:39 UTC

Bookmaker1X2Margin
1xBet1.277.5010.61.5%
Betano1.267.1010.82.8%
Marathonbet1.257.4010.53.0%
Pinnacle1.227.3911.64.1%
Dafabet1.237.8010.04.1%
Bet3651.227.0011.05.3%
Betfair1.207.5011.05.8%
BetVictor1.207.5011.05.8%
SBO1.227.148.877.2%
William Hill1.226.509.507.9%
Best of all books1.277.8011.60.2%
Average1.237.2810.54.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Real MadridRB Leipzig
Last 10#10Table position#233.00Points per game1.5012Form pts · last 563.0Goals for · last 51.02.0Goals against · last 52.075Attack rating2550Defence rating5067Form rating3364H2H rating3684Goals model1667Overall rating33

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 18 Oct 22:20 UTC

Real Madrid

8W 0D 2L · goals 27:12 · per match 2.7 for, 1.2 against

18 OctHSevilla4-1W
14 OctAAS Roma4-3W
10 OctHVillarreal1-0W
20 SepAAtletico Madrid1-2L
15 SepAElche3-2W
12 SepHRayo Vallecano4-1W
8 SepHInter2-1W
4 SepAReal Betis0-1L
30 AugHMalaga4-0W
26 AugHReal Sociedad4-1W

RB Leipzig

5W 0D 5L · goals 25:19 · per match 2.5 for, 1.9 against

21 OctAReal Madrid1-4L
17 OctABayern München1-6L
13 OctHPSV Eindhoven1-0W
10 OctHEintracht Frankfurt6-0W
20 SepABayer Leverkusen0-2L
13 SepHHamburger SV5-0W
10 SepAComo1-4L
5 SepAWerder Bremen1-3L
29 AugHBorussia Mönchengladbach3-0W
22 AugAEintracht Trier6-0W

Head to head

2Real Madrid wins
1draws
1RB Leipzig wins

4 meetings · goals 6:4 · last 4: 2W 1D 1L for Real Madrid

6 Mar 2024UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions LeagueReal Madrid1-1RB Leipzig
13 Feb 2024UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions LeagueRB Leipzig0-1Real Madrid
25 Oct 2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions LeagueRB Leipzig3-2Real Madrid
14 Sep 2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions LeagueReal Madrid2-0RB Leipzig

UEFA Champions League tableUEFA Champions Leagueupdated 21 Oct 20:50 UTC

In the UEFA Champions League table, Real Madrid sit 10th with 6 points from 2 games, while RB Leipzig are 23rd with 3 points from 2.

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain330014:5+99
2Liverpool330012:7+59
3VfB Stuttgart32107:2+57
4Aston Villa22009:2+76
5Barcelona320111:6+56
6Como320110:5+56
7Manchester City32019:5+46
8Sporting CP22005:1+46
9Arsenal22004:0+46
10Real Madrid22006:4+26
11Real Betis22006:4+26
12Borussia Dortmund32015:4+16
13Bayern München21108:3+54
14AS Roma31118:5+34
15Shakhtar Donetsk21104:2+24
16Atletico Madrid31114:3+14
17PSV Eindhoven31112:204
18Villarreal31028:803
19Club Brugge KV21016:603
20Manchester United31025:6-13
21Lens21013:4-13
22Napoli31025:7-23
23RB Leipzig21012:4-23
24Galatasaray31026:9-33
25Feyenoord21014:7-33
26Sabah FC31023:6-33
27Bodo/Glimt31024:9-53
28AEK Athens FC31023:8-53
29Fenerbahçe30213:9-62
30Viking20114:6-21
31Slavia Praha30124:7-31
32Inter20024:6-20
33Lask Linz20023:7-40
34FC Porto30032:6-40
35Lille30034:10-60
36Slovan Bratislava30031:13-120

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg178%1.23X13%7.2829%10.5

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 0.2% margin.

1X2 since open average price

18 Oct 00:0021 Oct 17:301 1.23X 7.282 10.5
11.26 → 1.23 -2.4%X6.42 → 7.28 +13.4%29.22 → 10.5 +13.7%

Over / Under 2.5

BookmakerOverUnderMargin
Betfair1.175.204.7%
Betano1.194.705.3%
Bet3651.175.005.5%
BetVictor1.135.257.5%
1xBet1.134.6010.2%
Marathonbet1.134.6010.2%
Best of all books1.195.253.1%
Average1.154.897.1%

Both teams to score

BookmakerYesNoMargin
William Hill1.402.886.2%
Betano1.442.676.9%
Betfair1.442.637.5%
1xBet1.412.737.6%
Bet3651.442.627.6%
BetVictor1.402.757.8%
Marathonbet1.412.698.1%
Best of all books1.442.884.2%
Average1.422.717.3%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Real Madrid 45%Draw 45%RB Leipzig 10%

The statistical model rated Real Madrid at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and RB Leipzig at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.23 | 7.28 | 10.48, which imply roughly 81.3% for a Real Madrid win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the UEFA Champions League table: Real Madrid are 10th (6 pts, 6-4 goals), RB Leipzig 23rd (3 pts, 2-4).

Over their last five matches, Real Madrid averaged 3 goals scored and 2 conceded per game; RB Leipzig averaged 1 scored and 2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Real Madrid and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

Starting Lineups

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1

Coach: José Mourinho

Goalkeeper

  • 1T. Courtois

Defence

  • 8F. Valverde
  • 4D. Huijsen
  • 22A. Rüdiger
  • 18Álvaro Fernández

Midfield

  • 6E. Camavinga
  • 20Bernardo Silva
  • 15A. Güler
  • 5J. Bellingham
  • 7Vinícius Júnior

Attack

  • 10Kylian Mbappé
Substitutes (12)
  • 12T. Alexander-Arnold
  • 21Brahim Díaz
  • 25Y. Diomande
  • 24D. Dumfries
  • 17Marc Cucurella
  • 3Éder Militão
  • 9Endrick
  • 19Carlos Espí
  • 16I. Konaté
  • 13A. Lunin
  • 27Thiago Pitarch
  • 14A. Tchouaméni

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1

Coach: M. Demichelis

Goalkeeper

  • 26M. Vandevoordt

Defence

  • 17R. Baku
  • 4W. Orbán
  • 23C. Lukeba
  • 22D. Raum

Midfield

  • 21N. El Aynaoui
  • 13N. Seiwald
  • 10B. Gruda
  • 28C. Nkunku
  • 7A. Nusa

Attack

  • 40Rômulo
Substitutes (12)
  • 14C. Baumgartner
  • 3M. Estève
  • 35Max Finkgräfe
  • 27T. Gomis
  • 39B. Henrichs
  • 16L. Klostermann
  • 2A. Koné
  • 30A. Maksimović
  • 1Ø. Nyland
  • 20R. Reitz
  • 11J. Bakayoko
  • 6E. Banzuzi

Match Statistics

Real MadridRB Leipzig
2.95Expected Goals1.46
679Passes accurate356
13Shots insidebox10
5Shots outsidebox1
1Blocked Shots1
12Free Kicks13
11Shots on Goal6
5Goalkeeper Saves6
6Shots off Goal4
3Offsides2
742Total passes406
18Total Shots11
1Yellow Cards1
7Corner Kicks1
13Fouls12
0Red Cards0
65%Ball Possession35%

All markets average prices

Full time

1X2
1.237.2810.5

Double chance

1XX212
1.064.171.10

Draw no bet

12
1.068.08

Both teams to score

YesNo
1.422.71

1st half

1X2
1.533.447.09

2nd half

1X2
1.443.916.60

HT/FT

HT / FTFT 1FT XFT 2
HT 11.5919.651.1
HT X4.7713.222.5
HT 215.721.816.4

First team to score

HomeNo GoalAway
1.3042.53.42

Match goals

LineOverUnder
0.51.0128.3
1.51.0410.8
2.51.154.89
3.51.462.66
4.52.051.79
5.53.111.35
6.55.051.15
7.58.901.06
8.515.91.02
9.524.81.01
10.550.5–
17 more lines
LineOverUnder
11.0124.0
1.751.038.27
21.029.30
2.251.115.72
2.751.233.89
31.223.87
3.251.333.13
3.751.532.45
41.662.22
4.251.861.98
4.752.281.64
52.571.49
5.252.781.40
5.753.471.25
64.301.17
6.254.481.15
77.201.03

Asian handicap

LineHomeAway
-2.752.541.50
-2.52.261.65
-2.252.051.77
-21.841.99
-1.751.682.22
-1.51.542.41
15 more lines
LineHomeAway
-5.511.51.01
-4.55.651.08
-45.321.11
-3.754.091.19
-3.53.451.26
-3.253.201.31
-33.031.35
-1.251.402.80
-11.273.54
-0.751.253.62
-0.51.214.25
-0.251.135.24
01.076.57
+0.251.106.80
+1.51.0113.0

Cards in match

LineOverUnder
0.51.0310.8
1.51.125.60
2.51.363.01
3.51.801.97
4.52.481.52
5.53.801.24
6.55.701.12
7.58.251.05
8.511.01.02
2 more lines
LineOverUnder
31.542.45
42.261.64

Corners 2-Way

LineOverUnder
3.51.0114.0
4.51.0214.3
5.51.049.25
6.51.085.92
7.51.193.93
8.51.352.84
9.51.622.16
10.52.031.72
11.52.601.42
12.53.471.24
13.54.711.13
14.56.441.07
15.59.001.04
16.511.01.02
17.512.51.01
18.514.01.01
16 more lines
LineOverUnder
71.084.75
81.193.39
8.751.362.69
91.422.60
9.251.512.32
9.751.712.07
101.851.95
10.251.871.79
10.752.101.57
112.271.55
11.252.401.44
11.752.741.30
122.781.29
12.253.181.21
133.691.16
144.791.08

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