Sarnese vs 
Paganese• Serie D - Girone G, Italy
Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction
Price board · 1X2captured 2 Oct 00:30 UTC
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.79 | 3.88 | 4.28 | 5.0% |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.15 | 4.10 | 10.8% |
| Best of all books | 1.83 | 3.88 | 4.28 | 3.8% |
| Average | 1.81 | 3.51 | 4.19 | 7.6% |
Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 2 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.
Team comparison
Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.
Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 4 Oct 14:51 UTC
Sarnese
4W 4D 2L · goals 16:13 · per match 1.6 for, 1.3 against
| 27 Sep | A | Ossese | 2-2 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Gelbison | 3-1 | W |
| 16 Sep | A | Venafro | 1-0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Afragolese | 1-1 | D |
| 6 Sep | H | Budoni | 2-1 | W |
| 30 Jul | A | Cavese | 0-1 | L |
| 10 May | H | Pompei | 2-1 | W |
| 3 May | A | Virtus Francavilla | 2-2 | D |
| 26 Apr | H | Francavilla | 2-2 | D |
| 19 Apr | A | Fidelis Andria | 1-2 | L |
Paganese
6W 1D 3L · goals 21:15 · per match 2.1 for, 1.5 against
| 27 Sep | H | Gelbison | 2-3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Trastevere | 6-1 | W |
| 16 Sep | H | Afragolese | 0-0 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Latte Dolce | 3-2 | W |
| 6 Sep | H | Unipomezia | 2-1 | W |
| 17 May | A | Martina Franca | 1-0 | W |
| 10 May | A | Città di Fasano | 2-1 | W |
| 3 May | A | Città di Fasano | 0-6 | L |
| 26 Apr | H | Nola 1925 | 5-0 | W |
| 19 Apr | A | Gravina | 0-1 | L |
Head to head
5 meetings · goals 4:6 · last 5: 1W 1D 3L for Sarnese
| 22 Feb 2026Serie D - Girone H | Serie D - Girone H | Sarnese1-1Paganese |
| 19 Oct 2025Serie D - Girone H | Serie D - Girone H | Paganese2-1Sarnese |
| 13 Apr 2025Serie D - Girone G | Serie D - Girone G | Sarnese1-0Paganese |
| 1 Dec 2024Serie D - Girone G | Serie D - Girone G | Paganese1-0Sarnese |
| 1 Sep 2024Coppa Italia Serie D | Coppa Italia Serie D | Sarnese1-2Paganese |
Serie D - Girone G tableGroup Gupdated 4 Oct 15:01 UTC
In the Serie D - Girone G table, Sarnese sit 2nd with 11 points from 5 games, while Paganese are 3rd with 10 points from 5.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ossese | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:5 | +4 | 11 |
| 2 | Sarnese | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9:5 | +4 | 11 |
| 3 | Paganese | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13:7 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Monastir | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12:8 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Trastevere | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:10 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:3 | +5 | 9 |
| 7 | Unipomezia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 8 |
| 8 | Albalonga | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:7 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Budoni | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:8 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Anzio | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Gelbison | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:8 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Aranova | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:5 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Afragolese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Città di Anagni | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Latte Dolce | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6:11 | -5 | 2 |
| 17 | Atletico Lodigiani | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7:14 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Venafro | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3:10 | -7 | 1 |
Market · 1X2
Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 4.5% margin.
1X2 since open average price
Over / Under 2.5
| Bookmaker | Over | Under | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 1.85 | 5.3% |
| Betano | 1.85 | 1.78 | 10.2% |
| Best of all books | 1.95 | 1.85 | 5.3% |
| Average | 1.90 | 1.81 | 7.7% |
Both teams to score
| Bookmaker | Yes | No | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 1.90 | 5.3% |
| Best of all books | 1.90 | 1.90 | 5.3% |
| Average | 1.90 | 1.90 | 5.3% |
Odds Analysis & Prediction
The statistical model rated Sarnese at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Paganese at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.29 | 3.11 | 2.78, which imply roughly 32.2% for the draw versus the model's 45%.
Form context from the Serie D - Girone G table: Sarnese are 2nd (11 pts, 9-5 goals), Paganese 3rd (10 pts, 13-7).
Over their last five matches, Sarnese averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Paganese averaged 2.6 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Statistical advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Paganese and +1.5 goals (goal line signal: over 1.5 goals).
Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.
All markets average prices
Full time
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.81 | 3.51 | 4.19 |
Double chance
| 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | 1.78 | 1.29 |
Draw no bet
| 1 | 2 |
|---|---|
| 1.33 | 2.80 |
Both teams to score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 1.90 | 1.90 |
1st half
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.45 | 2.02 | 4.50 |
Match goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 1.30 | 3.26 |
| 2.5 | 1.90 | 1.82 |
| 3.5 | 3.23 | 1.31 |
| 4.5 | 6.51 | 1.06 |
Asian handicap
| Line | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.00 | 1.30 |
| -0.5 | 1.78 | 1.83 |
| 0 | 1.32 | 2.92 |