Paganese vs Gelbison• Serie D - Girone G, Italy

#32.8:1.02-3FT27/09 · Stadio Marcello Torre, Pagani1.0:1.5#11

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.85WHX3.40B36524.15BTNMargin at best7.6%Books2Markets13Rating59 · 42Exp. goals L53.1

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Sep 12:30 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
1xBet	1.71	3.40	4.66	9.4%
Betano	1.70	3.35	4.45	11.1%
Best of all books	1.71	3.40	4.66	9.4%
Average	1.71	3.38	4.55	10.2%

Best price per column is highlighted. These prices were captured 2 days before kickoff and were not refreshed later; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PaganeseGelbison

Last 10#3Table position#112.00Points per game1.4010Form pts · last 542.8Goals for · last 51.01.0Goals against · last 51.573Attack rating2760Defence rating4071Form rating2933H2H rating6781Goals model1959Overall rating42

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 4 Oct 14:51 UTC

Paganese

6W 1D 3L · goals 21:15 · per match 2.1 for, 1.5 against

27 Sep	H	Gelbison	2-3	L
20 Sep	A	Trastevere	6-1	W
16 Sep	H	Afragolese	0-0	D
12 Sep	A	Latte Dolce	3-2	W
6 Sep	H	Unipomezia	2-1	W
17 May	A	Martina Franca	1-0	W
10 May	A	Città di Fasano	2-1	W
3 May	A	Città di Fasano	0-6	L
26 Apr	H	Nola 1925	5-0	W
19 Apr	A	Gravina	0-1	L

Gelbison

6W 1D 3L · goals 11:12 · per match 1.1 for, 1.2 against

20 Sep	A	Sarnese	1-3	L
16 Sep	H	Budoni	2-1	W
13 Sep	A	Trastevere	1-2	L
6 Sep	H	Afragolese	0-0	D
10 May	A	Nissa	0-4	L
3 May	H	Gela	1-0	W
26 Apr	A	Enna	1-0	W
19 Apr	H	Acireale	2-1	W
12 Apr	A	Sancataldese	1-0	W
2 Apr	H	AC Palermo	2-1	W

Head to head

0Paganese wins

3draws

1Gelbison wins

4 meetings · goals 3:6 · last 4: 0W 3D 1L for Paganese

6 Apr 2025Serie D - Girone G	Serie D - Girone G	Paganese1-1Gelbison
24 Nov 2024Serie D - Girone G	Serie D - Girone G	Gelbison1-1Paganese
3 Mar 2024Serie D - Girone H	Serie D - Girone H	Paganese1-1Gelbison
28 Oct 2023Serie D - Girone H	Serie D - Girone H	Gelbison3-0Paganese

Serie D - Girone G tableGroup Gupdated 4 Oct 15:01 UTC

In the Serie D - Girone G table, Paganese sit 3rd with 10 points from 5 games, while Gelbison are 11th with 7 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Ossese	6	3	2	1	9:5	+4	11
2	Sarnese	5	3	2	0	9:5	+4	11
3	Paganese	5	3	1	1	13:7	+6	10
4	Monastir	5	3	1	1	12:8	+4	10
5	Trastevere	5	3	1	1	8:10	-2	10
6	Certosa V. Campagnano	5	3	0	2	8:3	+5	9
7	Unipomezia	5	2	2	1	8:5	+3	8
8	Albalonga	5	2	2	1	9:7	+2	8
9	Budoni	5	2	1	2	9:8	+1	7
10	Anzio	5	2	1	2	5:5	0	7
11	Gelbison	5	2	1	2	7:8	-1	7
12	Aranova	5	1	3	1	5:5	0	6
13	Afragolese	6	1	3	2	5:7	-2	6
14	Città di Anagni	5	2	0	3	7:10	-3	6
15	Sarrabus Ogliastra	5	1	2	2	5:7	-2	5
16	Latte Dolce	5	0	2	3	6:11	-5	2
17	Atletico Lodigiani	5	0	1	4	7:14	-7	1
18	Venafro	5	0	1	4	3:10	-7	1

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg152%1.70X27%3.32221%4.22

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 7.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.71 → 1.79 +4.7%X3.38 → 3.26 -3.6%24.56 → 3.80 -16.7%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.92	1.78	8.3%
Betano	1.87	1.78	9.7%
Best of all books	1.92	1.78	8.3%
Average	1.90	1.78	9.0%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
1xBet	1.97	1.84	5.1%
Best of all books	1.97	1.84	5.1%
Average	1.97	1.84	5.1%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Paganese 45%Draw 45%Gelbison 10%

The statistical model rated Paganese at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Gelbison at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.70 | 3.32 | 4.22, which imply roughly 58.8% for a Paganese win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Serie D - Girone G table: Paganese are 3rd (10 pts, 13-7 goals), Gelbison 11th (7 pts, 7-8).

Over their last five matches, Paganese averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Gelbison averaged 1 scored and 1.5 conceded.

Statistical advice: Winner : Paganese.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.71	3.38	4.56

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.17	1.93	1.26

Draw no bet

1	2
1.27	3.10

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.97	1.84

1st half

1	X	2
2.30	2.05	4.85

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	1.28	3.25
2.5	1.90	1.78
3.5	3.15	1.29

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.5	2.78	1.35
-0.75	1.85	1.75
0	1.27	3.30

Latest Serie D - Girone G results

4 Oct	Sarnese 2-1 Paganese
4 Oct	Albalonga 0-2 Anzio
4 Oct	Latte Dolce 1-0 Sarrabus Ogliastra
4 Oct	Trastevere 0-0 Città di Anagni
4 Oct	Unipomezia 3-1 Atletico Lodigiani
27 Sep	Atletico Lodigiani 2-3 Trastevere