Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd• Liga 1, Indonesia

#91.0:0.812:0026/10 · Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium, Surabaya1.8:1.4#3

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

11.47BTNX4.46PIN26.60PINMargin at best5.6%Books7Markets87Rating54 · 46 levelExp. goals L52.5

Price board · 1X2captured 23 Oct 15:21 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	1.43	4.46	6.60	7.5%
Dafabet	1.46	4.40	6.00	7.9%
Betano	1.47	4.20	5.90	8.8%
1xBet	1.43	4.15	5.93	10.9%
Marathonbet	1.42	4.15	5.65	12.2%
Betfair	1.36	4.40	6.00	12.9%
William Hill	1.40	4.00	6.00	13.1%
Best of all books	1.47	4.46	6.60	5.6%
Average	1.42	4.25	6.01	10.4%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Persebaya SurabayaPersepam Madura Utd

Last 10#9Table position#31.50Points per game2.178Form pts · last 5101.0Goals for · last 51.80.8Goals against · last 51.436Attack rating6464Defence rating3644Form rating5671H2H rating2946Goals model5454Overall rating46

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 23 Oct 03:01 UTC

Persebaya Surabaya

5W 4D 1L · goals 11:7 · per match 1.1 for, 0.7 against

22 Oct	A	PSM Makassar	0-1	L
18 Oct	H	PSS Sleman	2-2	D
9 Oct	A	Isenmulang Kalteng	1-0	W
19 Sep	H	Garudayaksa	1-1	D
13 Sep	H	PSIM Yogyakarta	1-0	W
5 Sep	A	Bhayangkara FC	1-1	D
6 Aug	A	Persib Bandung	1-1	D
4 Aug	H	Arema FC	1-0	W
1 Aug	H	Port FC	2-1	W
29 Jul	H	PSMS Medan	1-0	W

Persepam Madura Utd

6W 1D 3L · goals 17:12 · per match 1.7 for, 1.2 against

22 Oct	H	Persib Bandung	1-0	W
16 Oct	H	Bhayangkara FC	3-3	D
9 Oct	A	Persik Kediri	0-2	L
18 Sep	H	PSIM Yogyakarta	2-1	W
12 Sep	A	PSS Sleman	3-1	W
6 Sep	H	Persijap	2-0	W
23 May	H	PSM Makassar	2-0	W
17 May	A	PSIM Yogyakarta	1-2	L
11 May	A	Bhayangkara FC	1-3	L
5 May	H	Bali United	2-0	W

Head to head

8Persebaya Surabaya wins

5draws

3Persepam Madura Utd wins

16 meetings · goals 25:18 · last 10: 6W 2D 2L for Persebaya Surabaya

17 Apr 2026Liga 1	Liga 1	Persebaya Surabaya1-2Persepam Madura Utd
3 Jan 2026Liga 1	Liga 1	Persepam Madura Utd0-1Persebaya Surabaya
20 Apr 2025Liga 1	Liga 1	Persebaya Surabaya1-0Persepam Madura Utd
2 Dec 2024Liga 1	Liga 1	Persepam Madura Utd1-2Persebaya Surabaya
13 Mar 2024Liga 1	Liga 1	Persebaya Surabaya0-0Persepam Madura Utd
17 Sep 2023Liga 1	Liga 1	Persepam Madura Utd3-0Persebaya Surabaya
29 Jan 2023Liga 1	Liga 1	Persepam Madura Utd0-2Persebaya Surabaya
14 Aug 2022Liga 1	Liga 1	Persebaya Surabaya2-2Persepam Madura Utd
28 Feb 2022Liga 1	Liga 1	Persepam Madura Utd1-2Persebaya Surabaya
20 Nov 2021Liga 1	Liga 1	Persebaya Surabaya1-0Persepam Madura Utd

Liga 1 tableLiga 1updated 23 Oct 16:50 UTC

In the Liga 1 table, Persebaya Surabaya sit 9th with 9 points from 6 games, while Persepam Madura Utd are 3rd with 13 points from 6.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	15:5	+10	15
2	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	12:6	+6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	11:7	+4	13
4	Bali United	6	4	0	2	19:7	+12	12
5	Persita	5	3	2	0	11:8	+3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	11:8	+3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	7:4	+3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	3	1	2	9:7	+2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	6:5	+1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	9:12	-3	8
11	Java United	6	2	2	2	9:9	0	6
12	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	12:14	-2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	4:6	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	1	2	3	6:12	-6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	9:11	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	1	1	4	3:12	-9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	0	1	5	3:11	-8	1
18	Persijap	6	0	0	6	2:14	-12	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg164%1.42X21%4.25215%6.01

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

11.42 → 1.42 0.0%X4.25 → 4.25 0.0%26.08 → 6.01 -1.2%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Betfair	1.57	2.38	5.7%
Pinnacle	1.60	2.30	6.0%
1xBet	1.57	2.20	9.1%
Betano	1.57	2.20	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.57	2.20	9.1%
Best of all books	1.60	2.38	4.5%
Average	1.58	2.26	7.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.73	2.00	7.8%
Betano	1.70	2.00	8.8%
1xBet	1.69	2.00	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.69	1.97	9.9%
Best of all books	1.73	2.00	7.8%
Average	1.70	1.99	8.9%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Persebaya Surabaya 45%Draw 45%Persepam Madura Utd 10%

The statistical model rates Persebaya Surabaya at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Persepam Madura Utd at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 1.42 | 4.25 | 6.01, which imply roughly 70.4% for a Persebaya Surabaya win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 1 table: Persebaya Surabaya are 9th (9 pts, 6-5 goals), Persepam Madura Utd 3rd (13 pts, 11-7).

Over their last five matches, Persebaya Surabaya averaged 1 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Persepam Madura Utd averaged 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Persebaya Surabaya or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
1.42	4.25	6.01

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.08	2.55	1.16

Draw no bet

1	2
1.16	4.60

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.70	1.99

1st half

1	X	2
1.91	2.44	5.72

2nd half

1	X	2
1.77	2.81	5.17

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	2.08	16.2	47.3
HT X	4.10	6.60	12.7
HT 2	20.3	16.8	10.4

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.38	15.5	2.99

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.01	13.7
1.5	1.17	4.26
2.5	1.58	2.26
3.5	2.41	1.48
4.5	4.13	1.18
5.5	7.00	1.05

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.01	10.0
1.25	1.07	5.80
1.75	1.18	3.86
2	1.23	3.42
2.25	1.40	2.60
2.75	1.71	1.99
3	1.92	1.77
3.25	2.18	1.60
3.75	2.79	1.35
4	3.50	1.22
4.25	3.83	1.19
4.75	5.10	1.10
5	6.85	1.04

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	2.58	1.43
-1.5	2.23	1.58
-1.25	1.97	1.74
-1	1.71	2.00
-0.75	1.53	2.30
-0.5	1.42	2.78

10 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-3.5	7.30	1.03
-3.25	6.95	1.04
-3	6.65	1.05
-2.75	4.80	1.12
-2.5	3.85	1.18
-2.25	3.61	1.23
-2	3.27	1.27
-0.25	1.28	3.23
0	1.14	4.40
+0.25	1.11	4.85

Corners 2-Way

Line	Over	Under
6.5	1.01	7.23
7.5	1.13	4.30
8.5	1.31	2.94
9.5	1.58	2.20
10.5	1.95	1.75
11.5	2.50	1.45
12.5	3.37	1.23
13.5	4.90	1.09

23 more lines

Line	Over	Under
6.75	1.02	6.95
7	1.02	6.68
7.25	1.08	5.17
7.75	1.15	4.10
8	1.17	3.90
8.25	1.25	3.29
8.75	1.36	2.75
9	1.41	2.60
9.25	1.51	2.35
9.75	1.68	2.06
10	1.76	1.98
10.25	1.87	1.83
10.75	2.10	1.65
11	2.26	1.57
11.25	2.39	1.49
11.75	2.76	1.36
12	3.10	1.28
12.25	3.25	1.25
12.75	3.86	1.17
13	4.54	1.12
13.25	4.72	1.10
13.75	5.75	1.05
14	7.09	1.01

Next Liga 1 matches

24 Oct	Isenmulang Kalteng – PSIM Yogyakarta
25 Oct	Arema FC – Dewa United
25 Oct	Persita – Bali United
25 Oct	Garudayaksa – Persib Bandung
26 Oct	Bhayangkara FC – PSM Makassar
26 Oct	Persija – Persik Kediri

All Liga 1 fixtures and the table

Latest Liga 1 results

22 Oct	Persepam Madura Utd 1-0 Persib Bandung
22 Oct	Persik Kediri 2-1 PSS Sleman
22 Oct	PSM Makassar 1-0 Persebaya Surabaya
21 Oct	Persija 5-1 Arema FC
21 Oct	Bali United 5-0 Garudayaksa
20 Oct	Dewa United 2-0 Persijap