PSM Makassar vs Persebaya Surabaya• Liga 1, Indonesia

#141.6:2.408:3022/10 · Gelora BJ Habibie, Parepare City1.2:0.8#8

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

13.50PINX3.40BFR22.09PINMargin at best5.8%Books9Markets47Rating34 · 66Exp. goals L53.0

Price board · 1X2captured 20 Oct 17:03 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	3.50	3.32	2.09	6.5%
Dafabet	3.50	3.40	2.03	7.2%
Betano	3.40	3.35	2.02	8.8%
Betfair	3.30	3.40	2.00	9.7%
1xBet	3.32	3.22	2.01	10.9%
Marathonbet	3.24	3.22	1.99	12.2%
William Hill	3.30	3.00	2.05	12.4%
Bet365	3.20	3.30	1.95	12.8%
SBO	3.14	3.02	1.88	18.2%
Best of all books	3.50	3.40	2.09	5.8%
Average	3.32	3.25	2.00	10.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

PSM MakassarPersebaya Surabaya

Last 10#14Table position#81.00Points per game1.805Form pts · last 591.6Goals for · last 51.22.4Goals against · last 50.857Attack rating4325Defence rating7536Form rating6425H2H rating7527Goals model7334Overall rating66

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 19 Oct 06:00 UTC

PSM Makassar

2W 2D 6L · goals 11:22 · per match 1.1 for, 2.2 against

16 Oct	A	PSIM Yogyakarta	2-1	W
11 Oct	A	PSS Sleman	0-3	L
19 Sep	H	Persita	2-2	D
13 Sep	H	Arema FC	3-3	D
6 Sep	A	Persib Bandung	1-3	L
23 May	A	Persepam Madura Utd	0-2	L
17 May	H	Persib Bandung	1-2	L
9 May	A	Arema FC	0-3	L
4 May	H	Bhayangkara FC	2-1	W
27 Apr	A	Bali United	0-2	L

Persebaya Surabaya

6W 4D 0L · goals 12:6 · per match 1.2 for, 0.6 against

18 Oct	H	PSS Sleman	2-2	D
9 Oct	A	Isenmulang Kalteng	1-0	W
19 Sep	H	Garudayaksa	1-1	D
13 Sep	H	PSIM Yogyakarta	1-0	W
5 Sep	A	Bhayangkara FC	1-1	D
6 Aug	A	Persib Bandung	1-1	D
4 Aug	H	Arema FC	1-0	W
1 Aug	H	Port FC	2-1	W
29 Jul	H	PSMS Medan	1-0	W
26 Jul	H	Persija	1-0	W

Head to head

5PSM Makassar wins

3draws

6Persebaya Surabaya wins

14 meetings · goals 15:15 · last 10: 3W 3D 4L for PSM Makassar

25 Feb 2026Liga 1	Liga 1	Persebaya Surabaya1-0PSM Makassar
6 Dec 2025Liga 1	Liga 1	PSM Makassar1-1Persebaya Surabaya
7 Mar 2025Liga 1	Liga 1	PSM Makassar0-1Persebaya Surabaya
23 Oct 2024Liga 1	Liga 1	Persebaya Surabaya1-1PSM Makassar
28 Feb 2024Liga 1	Liga 1	PSM Makassar0-0Persebaya Surabaya
18 Aug 2023Liga 1	Liga 1	Persebaya Surabaya1-0PSM Makassar
24 Feb 2023Liga 1	Liga 1	Persebaya Surabaya0-1PSM Makassar
10 Sep 2022Liga 1	Liga 1	PSM Makassar3-0Persebaya Surabaya
14 Jan 2022Liga 1	Liga 1	Persebaya Surabaya2-1PSM Makassar
18 Sep 2021Liga 1	Liga 1	PSM Makassar3-1Persebaya Surabaya

Liga 1 tableLiga 1updated 20 Oct 16:00 UTC

In the Liga 1 table, PSM Makassar sit 14th with 5 points from 5 games, while Persebaya Surabaya are 8th with 9 points from 5.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	12:6	+6	14
2	Persija	5	4	0	1	10:4	+6	12
3	Persita	5	3	2	0	11:8	+3	11
4	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	11:8	+3	10
5	Persepam Madura Utd	5	3	1	1	10:7	+3	10
6	Persib Bandung	5	3	1	1	9:6	+3	10
7	Bali United	5	3	0	2	14:7	+7	9
8	Persebaya Surabaya	5	2	3	0	6:4	+2	9
9	Persik Kediri	5	2	1	2	5:3	+2	7
10	Arema FC	5	1	3	1	11:9	+2	6
11	Java United	6	2	2	2	9:9	0	6
12	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	4:6	-2	6
13	Garudayaksa	5	1	2	2	6:7	-1	5
14	PSM Makassar	5	1	2	2	8:12	-4	5
15	PSS Sleman	5	1	1	3	8:9	-1	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	6	1	1	4	3:12	-9	2
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	6	0	1	5	3:11	-8	1
18	Persijap	6	0	0	6	2:14	-12	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg127%3.32X28%3.25245%2.00

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.8% margin.

1X2 since open average price

13.34 → 3.32 -0.6%X3.19 → 3.25 +1.9%22.04 → 2.00 -2.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	1.95	1.85	5.3%
Pinnacle	1.96	1.83	5.7%
Betfair	1.90	1.87	6.1%
Betano	1.90	1.82	7.6%
SBO	1.92	1.80	7.6%
1xBet	1.89	1.78	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.89	1.78	9.1%
Best of all books	1.96	1.87	4.5%
Average	1.92	1.82	7.2%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
William Hill	1.75	2.00	7.1%
Betfair	1.67	2.10	7.5%
1xBet	1.72	1.96	9.2%
Betano	1.72	1.95	9.4%
Marathonbet	1.72	1.93	10.0%
Best of all books	1.75	2.10	4.8%
Average	1.72	1.99	8.6%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

PSM Makassar 10%Draw 45%Persebaya Surabaya 45%

The statistical model rates PSM Makassar at 10% to win, the draw at 45% and Persebaya Surabaya at 45% — against average 1X2 odds of 3.32 | 3.25 | 2.00, which imply roughly 30.8% for the draw versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Liga 1 table: PSM Makassar are 14th (5 pts, 8-12 goals), Persebaya Surabaya 8th (9 pts, 6-4).

Over their last five matches, PSM Makassar averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game; Persebaya Surabaya averaged 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : draw or Persebaya Surabaya.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
3.32	3.25	2.00

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.66	1.25	1.25

Draw no bet

1	2
2.46	1.47

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.72	1.99

1st half

1	X	2
3.87	2.10	2.61

2nd half

1	X	2
3.57	2.39	2.39

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	5.52	14.3	24.5
HT X	7.38	5.01	4.94
HT 2	33.8	13.7	3.17

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
2.29	10.1	1.71

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.03	8.56
1.5	1.28	3.32
2.5	1.92	1.82
3.5	3.23	1.29
4.5	6.20	1.08
5.5	14.0	1.02

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.75
1	1.02	8.10
1.25	1.13	4.50
1.75	1.32	2.88
2	1.44	2.53
2.25	1.68	2.04
2.75	2.18	1.60
3	2.62	1.41
3.25	2.92	1.31
3.75	4.05	1.16
4	5.70	1.08
4.25	6.05	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.25	2.87	1.35
0	2.44	1.49
+0.25	1.95	1.75
+0.5	1.75	2.03
+0.75	1.50	2.38
+1	1.30	3.08

12 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-1.75	8.90	1.01
-1.5	7.70	1.03
-1.25	7.10	1.04
-1	6.55	1.05
-0.75	4.29	1.16
-0.5	3.47	1.29
+1.25	1.24	3.51
+1.5	1.18	3.90
+1.75	1.10	5.10
+2	1.02	7.80
+2.25	1.02	8.28
+2.5	1.01	8.70

Next Liga 1 matches

21 Oct	Bali United – Garudayaksa
21 Oct	Persija – Arema FC
22 Oct	Persik Kediri – PSS Sleman
22 Oct	Persepam Madura Utd – Persib Bandung

All Liga 1 fixtures and the table

Latest Liga 1 results

20 Oct	Dewa United 2-0 Persijap
20 Oct	Bhayangkara FC 1-0 PSIM Yogyakarta
18 Oct	Persib Bandung 1-0 Persik Kediri
18 Oct	Persebaya Surabaya 2-2 PSS Sleman
17 Oct	Persita 3-2 Persija
17 Oct	Garudayaksa 3-1 Arema FC