Motril vs Málaga II• Tercera División RFEF - Group 9, Spain

#42.0:0.82-4FT25/101.4:1.0#7

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.10WHX3.40B36523.50DAFMargin at best5.6%Books8Markets43Rating50 · 50 levelExp. goals L52.6

Price board · 1X2captured 25 Oct 12:01 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betano	2.05	3.25	3.45	8.5%
Dafabet	2.00	3.20	3.50	9.8%
Pinnacle	2.10	3.08	3.30	10.4%
1xBet	2.00	3.16	3.42	10.9%
Bet365	1.91	3.40	3.40	11.2%
Betfair	1.95	3.30	3.30	11.9%
Marathonbet	1.98	3.16	3.32	12.3%
William Hill	2.10	2.90	3.30	12.4%
Best of all books	2.10	3.40	3.50	5.6%
Average	2.01	3.18	3.37	10.8%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

MotrilMálaga II

Last 10#4Table position#72.14Points per game1.5713Form pts · last 582.0Goals for · last 51.40.8Goals against · last 51.059Attack rating4156Defence rating4462Form rating3829H2H rating7168Goals model3250Overall rating50

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 25 Oct 12:41 UTC

Motril

4W 4D 2L · goals 12:9 · per match 1.2 for, 0.9 against

18 Oct	A	Cantoria	2-0	W
11 Oct	H	Atlético Porcuna	1-1	D
4 Oct	A	UD San Pedro	3-2	W
27 Sep	H	Alhaurino	2-0	W
20 Sep	A	Malaga City	2-1	W
13 Sep	H	Torre del Mar	1-1	D
9 Sep	H	Recreativo Huelva	0-2	L
5 Sep	A	Huétor Vega	0-0	D
7 Jun	H	Arenas Armilla	1-1	D
31 May	A	Arenas Armilla	0-1	L

Málaga II

4W 3D 3L · goals 20:14 · per match 2.0 for, 1.4 against

18 Oct	H	Churriana Vega	1-1	D
11 Oct	A	Almería II	1-2	L
3 Oct	H	Granada II	2-0	W
26 Sep	H	Atletico de Marbella	1-0	W
20 Sep	A	Cantoria	2-2	D
12 Sep	H	Atlético Porcuna	6-1	W
6 Sep	A	UD San Pedro	0-1	L
3 May	H	Melilla	3-3	D
26 Apr	A	Puente Genil	1-2	L
18 Apr	H	Antoniano	3-2	W

Head to head

3Motril wins

2draws

6Málaga II wins

11 meetings · goals 10:21 · last 10: 3W 2D 5L for Motril

23 Feb 2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Motril0-1Málaga II
13 Oct 2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Málaga II5-0Motril
11 Feb 2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Málaga II1-1Motril
1 Oct 2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Motril2-0Málaga II
26 Mar 2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Málaga II4-1Motril
4 Dec 2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Motril0-0Málaga II
2 Feb 2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Málaga II3-2Motril
12 Sep 2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Motril2-1Málaga II
7 Mar 2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Motril2-1Málaga II
29 Nov 2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9	Málaga II3-0Motril

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 tableTercera: Group 9updated 25 Oct 12:41 UTC

In the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table, Motril sit 4th with 15 points from 7 games, while Málaga II are 7th with 11 points from 7.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Melilla	8	7	0	1	15:5	+10	21
2	Almería II	7	5	1	1	12:4	+8	16
3	Arenas Armilla	7	4	3	0	15:7	+8	15
4	Motril	7	4	3	0	11:5	+6	15
5	Marbelli	7	4	1	2	8:7	+1	13
6	UD San Pedro	7	4	0	3	9:10	-1	12
7	Málaga II	7	3	2	2	13:7	+6	11
8	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno	7	3	2	2	10:7	+3	11
9	Churriana Vega	7	3	1	3	13:10	+3	10
10	Granada II	7	3	1	3	9:6	+3	10
11	Atlético Porcuna	7	3	1	3	9:15	-6	10
12	Alhaurino	7	2	2	3	7:9	-2	8
13	Torre del Mar	7	2	1	4	6:8	-2	7
14	Huétor Vega	7	1	3	3	10:14	-4	6
15	Atletico de Marbella	7	1	2	4	5:9	-4	5
16	Mancha Real	7	1	2	4	5:11	-6	5
17	Cantoria	8	0	3	5	4:14	-10	3
18	Malaga City	7	0	0	7	5:18	-13	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg145%2.01X28%3.18227%3.37

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.6% margin.

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.05	1.75	5.9%
Pinnacle	2.01	1.74	7.2%
Betano	1.98	1.75	7.6%
1xBet	1.96	1.72	9.2%
Marathonbet	1.96	1.72	9.2%
Best of all books	2.05	1.75	5.9%
Average	1.99	1.74	7.8%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betano	1.78	1.90	8.8%
1xBet	1.78	1.89	9.1%
William Hill	1.80	1.85	9.6%
Marathonbet	1.78	1.86	9.9%
Best of all books	1.80	1.90	8.2%
Average	1.79	1.88	9.4%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Motril 45%Draw 45%Málaga II 10%

The statistical model rated Motril at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Málaga II at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.01 | 3.18 | 3.37, which imply roughly 49.8% for a Motril win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table: Motril are 4th (15 pts, 11-5 goals), Málaga II 7th (11 pts, 13-7).

Over their last five matches, Motril averaged 2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game; Málaga II averaged 1.4 scored and 1 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Motril or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.01	3.18	3.37

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.26	1.69	1.28

Draw no bet

1	2
1.46	2.52

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.79	1.88

1st half

1	X	2
2.63	2.06	4.01

2nd half

1	X	2
2.41	2.36	3.67

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.22	15.7	35.3
HT X	4.98	4.92	7.50
HT 2	25.7	15.8	5.63

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.73	8.20	2.40

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.06	7.65
1.5	1.31	3.06
2.5	1.99	1.74
3.5	3.31	1.25
4.5	6.25	1.09
5.5	15.0	1.02

10 more lines

Line	Over	Under
1	1.04	6.75
1.25	1.17	4.00
1.75	1.38	2.70
2	1.49	2.36
2.25	1.75	1.94
2.75	2.24	1.54
3	2.73	1.37
3.25	3.05	1.28
3.75	4.10	1.16
4	5.70	1.08

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-1	3.01	1.32
-0.75	2.24	1.58
-0.5	2.02	1.74
-0.25	1.75	1.93
0	1.47	2.41
+0.25	1.34	2.83

8 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.5	7.70	1.03
-2	6.90	1.04
-1.75	4.75	1.12
-1.5	3.72	1.20
-1.25	3.34	1.24
+0.5	1.29	3.23
+1	1.06	6.30
+1.5	1.03	7.20

Latest Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 results

11 Oct	Almería II 2-1 Málaga II
3 Oct	Málaga II 2-0 Granada II