Necaxa W vs Toluca W• Liga MX Femenil, Mexico

#180.2:4.80-4FT29/09 · Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes2.4:2.6#4

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

123.0B365X13.0WH21.06B365Margin at best6.4%Books6Markets67Rating14 · 86Exp. goals L55.0

Price board · 1X2captured 27 Sep 13:21 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Pinnacle	23.9	18.3	1.04	5.8%
1xBet	21.0	13.0	1.07	5.9%
Bet365	21.0	13.0	1.07	5.9%
Betfair	31.0	14.0	1.04	6.5%
BetVictor	23.0	12.0	1.05	7.9%
Betano	16.0	8.75	1.07	11.1%
Best of all books	23.9	14.0	1.07	4.8%
Average	22.7	13.2	1.06	6.6%

Best price per column is highlighted. These are the last prices captured before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

Necaxa WToluca W

Last 10#18Table position#40.00Points per game2.200Form pts · last 590.2Goals for · last 52.44.8Goals against · last 52.68Attack rating9235Defence rating650Form rating1007H2H rating936Goals model9414Overall rating86

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 4 Oct 02:41 UTC

Necaxa W

0W 0D 10L · goals 5:39 · per match 0.5 for, 3.9 against

29 Sep	H	Toluca W	0-4	L
19 Sep	A	Monterrey W	0-10	L
13 Sep	A	Juárez W	0-1	L
5 Sep	H	Atlético San Luis W	0-2	L
30 Aug	A	Puebla W	1-4	L
24 Aug	H	América W	0-7	L
16 Aug	A	Tijuana W	1-5	L
9 Aug	H	Pumas UNAM W	1-2	L
3 Aug	A	Atlante W	0-1	L
25 Apr	A	Puebla W	2-3	L

Toluca W

6W 1D 3L · goals 26:19 · per match 2.6 for, 1.9 against

29 Sep	A	Necaxa W	4-0	W
22 Sep	H	Tigres UANL W	2-7	L
15 Sep	H	Tijuana W	6-0	W
6 Sep	A	Monterrey W	1-5	L
29 Aug	H	León W	1-0	W
24 Aug	A	Atlante W	2-1	W
18 Aug	H	Atlas W	1-1	D
11 Aug	H	Juárez W	2-0	W
3 Aug	A	Atlético San Luis W	4-1	W
10 May	A	América W	3-4	L

Head to head

2Necaxa W wins

3draws

7Toluca W wins

12 meetings · goals 10:26 · last 10: 1W 2D 7L for Necaxa W

21 Mar 2026Liga MX Femenil	Liga MX Femenil	Toluca W5-1Necaxa W
17 Oct 2025Liga MX Femenil	Liga MX Femenil	Necaxa W0-2Toluca W
28 Feb 2025Liga MX Femenil	Liga MX Femenil	Toluca W3-0Necaxa W
27 Sep 2024Liga MX Femenil	Liga MX Femenil	Necaxa W1-4Toluca W
5 Feb 2024Liga MX Femenil	Liga MX Femenil	Necaxa W0-0Toluca W
28 Aug 2023Liga MX Femenil	Liga MX Femenil	Toluca W2-0Necaxa W
2 Apr 2023Liga MX Femenil	Liga MX Femenil	Necaxa W1-4Toluca W
19 Sep 2022Liga MX Femenil	Liga MX Femenil	Toluca W2-1Necaxa W
17 Mar 2022Liga MX Femenil	Liga MX Femenil	Necaxa W2-2Toluca W
6 Sep 2021Liga MX Femenil	Liga MX Femenil	Toluca W0-1Necaxa W

Liga MX Femenil tableRegular Seasonupdated 15 Oct 03:21 UTC

In the Liga MX Femenil table, Necaxa W sit 18th with 0 points from 10 games, while Toluca W are 4th with 22 points from 10.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Monterrey W	10	9	0	1	39:13	+26	27
2	América W	10	8	1	1	45:11	+34	25
3	Tigres UANL W	10	8	1	1	32:10	+22	25
4	Toluca W	10	7	1	2	25:16	+9	22
5	Guadalajara W	10	7	0	3	21:11	+10	21
6	Juárez W	10	7	0	3	14:7	+7	21
7	Atlético San Luis W	10	6	1	3	23:16	+7	19
8	Santos Laguna W	10	5	0	5	13:20	-7	15
9	Cruz Azul W	10	5	0	5	13:21	-8	15
10	Pumas UNAM W	10	4	1	5	18:17	+1	13
11	León W	9	4	0	5	15:17	-2	12
12	Atlas W	9	3	3	3	10:17	-7	12
13	Pachuca W	10	3	1	6	14:15	-1	10
14	Tijuana W	10	3	0	7	13:24	-11	9
15	Atlante W	10	2	1	7	6:13	-7	7
16	Querétaro W	10	2	0	8	10:22	-12	6
17	Puebla W	10	1	0	9	13:39	-26	3
18	Necaxa W	10	0	0	10	3:38	-35	0

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg14%22.7X7%12.4288%1.05

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 6.4% margin.

1X2 since open average price

122.7 → 22.1 -2.4%X13.2 → 12.8 -3.0%21.06 → 1.05 -0.9%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
1xBet	1.11	6.00	6.8%
Bet365	1.11	6.00	6.8%
BetVictor	1.10	6.00	7.6%
Marathonbet	1.09	5.30	10.6%
Best of all books	1.11	6.00	6.8%
Average	1.10	5.83	7.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Bet365	1.73	2.00	7.8%
BetVictor	1.67	2.05	8.7%
Marathonbet	1.95	1.71	9.8%
Best of all books	1.95	2.05	0.1%
Average	1.78	1.92	8.2%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Necaxa W 0%Draw 50%Toluca W 50%

The statistical model rated Necaxa W at 0% to win, the draw at 50% and Toluca W at 50% — against average 1X2 odds of 22.71 | 12.38 | 1.05, which imply roughly 8.1% for the draw versus the model's 50%.

Form context from the Liga MX Femenil table: Necaxa W are 18th (0 pts, 3-38 goals), Toluca W 4th (22 pts, 25-16).

Over their last five matches, Necaxa W averaged 0.2 goals scored and 4.8 conceded per game; Toluca W averaged 2.4 scored and 2.6 conceded.

Statistical advice: Combo Winner : Toluca W and +2.5 goals (goal line signal: over 2.5 goals).

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
22.7	13.2	1.06

Double chance

1X	X2	12
7.95	1.01	1.03

Draw no bet

1	2
9.80	1.02

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.78	1.92

1st half

1	X	2
13.7	4.30	1.25

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	–	34.0
1.5	1.02	11.0
2.5	1.10	5.83
3.5	1.31	3.23
4.5	1.77	1.95
5.5	2.53	1.46
6.5	4.08	1.21
7.5	6.00	1.10
8.5	8.50	1.05
9.5	11.0	1.02
10.5	17.0	–
11.5	21.0	–

13 more lines

Line	Over	Under
2.75	1.11	4.95
3	1.13	4.60
3.25	1.23	3.42
3.75	1.40	2.67
4	1.49	2.41
4.25	1.65	2.09
4.75	1.97	1.73
5	2.22	1.57
5.25	2.41	1.49
5.75	2.97	1.32
6	3.64	1.21
6.25	3.94	1.21
7	6.50	1.05

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
+2.75	2.37	1.50
+3	2.06	1.66
+3.25	1.88	1.82
+3.5	1.74	1.98
+3.75	1.59	2.19
+4	1.45	2.51

13 more lines

Line	Home	Away
0	11.0	1.02
+1.5	4.10	1.17
+1.75	4.10	1.16
+2	3.99	1.18
+2.25	3.04	1.31
+2.5	2.61	1.42
+4.25	1.38	2.70
+4.5	1.32	2.96
+4.75	1.23	3.44
+5	1.15	4.30
+5.25	1.13	4.55
+5.5	1.11	4.80
+6	1.02	7.70