Lugo vs Mérida AD• Primera División RFEF - Group 1, Spain

#12.0:1.217:45Tomorrow · Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo2.2:1.2#9

Betting Odds, Analysis & Prediction

12.20BFRX3.40BVC23.25DAFMargin at best5.6%Books9Markets48Rating57 · 43Exp. goals L53.3

Price board · 1X2captured 31 Oct 16:15 UTC

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Margin
Betfair	2.20	3.30	3.20	7.0%
Dafabet	2.13	3.40	3.25	7.1%
BetVictor	2.15	3.40	3.20	7.2%
Pinnacle	2.13	3.31	3.18	8.6%
Betano	2.10	3.30	3.20	9.2%
1xBet	2.11	3.12	3.20	10.7%
Bet365	2.10	3.20	3.10	11.1%
Marathonbet	2.09	3.12	3.12	11.9%
William Hill	2.10	3.00	3.10	13.2%
Best of all books	2.20	3.40	3.25	5.6%
Average	2.12	3.24	3.17	9.5%

Best price per column is highlighted. Bookmaker prices refresh about every 3 hours from 4 days before kickoff; the strip above shows the latest best prices.

Team comparison

LugoMérida AD

Last 10#1Table position#92.44Points per game1.4412Form pts · last 5102.0Goals for · last 52.21.2Goals against · last 51.248Attack rating5250Defence rating5055Form rating45100H2H rating076Goals model2457Overall rating43

Blue marks the stronger side on each line. Ratings come from the match model: attack, defence, form, head to head and a goals model.

Last 10 matches team's goals firstupdated 30 Oct 06:02 UTC

Lugo

8W 1D 1L · goals 17:8 · per match 1.7 for, 0.8 against

23 Oct	A	Real Unión	1-4	L
17 Oct	H	Deportivo La Coruña II	3-0	W
12 Oct	H	UD Logroñés	3-1	W
2 Oct	A	Real Avilés	2-1	W
26 Sep	H	Racing Ferrol	1-0	W
20 Sep	A	Zamora	2-1	W
13 Sep	H	CD Coria	1-0	W
4 Sep	A	Ponferradina	0-0	D
30 Aug	A	Unionistas de Salamanca	3-1	W
21 Aug	H	Ourense CF	1-0	W

Mérida AD

5W 1D 4L · goals 17:13 · per match 1.7 for, 1.3 against

25 Oct	H	CD Coria	0-0	D
18 Oct	A	Arenas Getxo	4-0	W
11 Oct	A	Pontevedra	2-1	W
4 Oct	H	Cacereño	2-0	W
27 Sep	H	UD Logroñés	3-5	L
19 Sep	A	Ponferradina	0-1	L
12 Sep	H	Mirandes	3-4	L
6 Sep	A	Cultural Leonesa	0-1	L
29 Aug	H	Deportivo La Coruña II	1-0	W
14 Aug	H	Alcorcon	2-1	W

Head to head

2Lugo wins

0draws

0Mérida AD wins

2 meetings · goals 3:0 · last 2: 2W 0D 0L for Lugo

3 May 2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1	Mérida AD0-2Lugo
3 Jan 2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1	Lugo1-0Mérida AD

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 tableSegunda B: Group 1updated 31 Oct 06:10 UTC

In the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table, Lugo sit 1st with 22 points from 9 games, while Mérida AD are 9th with 13 points from 9.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Lugo	9	7	1	1	16:8	+8	22
2	UD Logroñés	9	6	2	1	20:12	+8	20
3	Racing Ferrol	9	5	1	3	9:7	+2	16
4	Cacereño	9	4	3	2	8:5	+3	15
5	Mirandes	9	4	2	3	12:10	+2	14
6	Pontevedra	9	4	2	3	12:11	+1	14
7	Extremadura 1924	9	4	1	4	16:10	+6	13
8	Real Unión	9	3	4	2	19:14	+5	13
9	Mérida AD	9	4	1	4	15:12	+3	13
10	Ponferradina	9	3	4	2	6:6	0	13
11	Athletic Club II	9	3	3	3	14:12	+2	12
12	Zamora	9	3	3	3	10:9	+1	12
13	Cultural Leonesa	9	3	3	3	10:9	+1	12
14	Real Avilés	9	3	2	4	15:13	+2	11
15	Barakaldo	9	2	4	3	8:10	-2	10
16	Unionistas de Salamanca	9	3	1	5	12:15	-3	10
17	CD Coria	9	2	3	4	12:16	-4	9
18	Deportivo La Coruña II	9	2	2	5	8:16	-8	8
19	UD Ourense	9	1	2	6	3:15	-12	5
20	Arenas Getxo	9	1	2	6	7:22	-15	5

Market · 1X2

Implied probabilityProb.Avg143%2.12X28%3.24229%3.17

Margin-free probabilities from the average price across bookmakers; the books keep a 5.6% margin.

1X2 since open average price

12.15 → 2.12 -1.4%X3.18 → 3.24 +1.9%23.14 → 3.17 +1.0%

Over / Under 2.5

Bookmaker	Over	Under	Margin
Bet365	2.00	1.80	5.6%
Pinnacle	1.93	1.86	5.6%
Betfair	1.90	1.80	8.2%
Betano	1.88	1.80	8.7%
BetVictor	1.88	1.79	9.1%
1xBet	1.89	1.78	9.1%
Marathonbet	1.89	1.78	9.1%
Best of all books	2.00	1.86	3.8%
Average	1.91	1.80	7.9%

Both teams to score

Bookmaker	Yes	No	Margin
Betfair	1.73	2.10	5.4%
1xBet	1.71	2.00	8.5%
BetVictor	1.70	2.00	8.8%
Marathonbet	1.71	1.97	9.2%
Bet365	1.83	1.83	9.3%
Betano	1.72	1.95	9.4%
William Hill	1.67	2.00	9.9%
Best of all books	1.83	2.10	2.3%
Average	1.72	1.98	8.5%

Odds Analysis & Prediction

Lugo 45%Draw 45%Mérida AD 10%

The statistical model rates Lugo at 45% to win, the draw at 45% and Mérida AD at 10% — against average 1X2 odds of 2.12 | 3.24 | 3.17, which imply roughly 47.2% for a Lugo win versus the model's 45%.

Form context from the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table: Lugo are 1st (22 pts, 16-8 goals), Mérida AD 9th (13 pts, 15-12).

Over their last five matches, Lugo averaged 2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game; Mérida AD averaged 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.

Statistical advice: Double chance : Lugo or draw.

Probabilities are statistical estimates derived from historical data — not betting advice. Odds shown are bookmaker averages and move until kickoff.

All markets average prices

Full time

1	X	2
2.12	3.24	3.17

Double chance

1X	X2	12
1.29	1.61	1.29

Draw no bet

1	2
1.56	2.27

Both teams to score

Yes	No
1.72	1.98

1st half

1	X	2
2.77	2.07	3.76

2nd half

1	X	2
2.48	2.38	3.39

HT/FT

HT / FT	FT 1	FT X	FT 2
HT 1	3.42	13.9	33.4
HT X	5.24	4.86	7.02
HT 2	26.6	14.3	5.16

First team to score

Home	No Goal	Away
1.78	9.75	2.23

Match goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	1.04	8.73
1.5	1.29	3.28
2.5	1.91	1.80
3.5	3.29	1.29
4.5	6.58	1.08
5.5	12.7	1.02
6.5	17.0	–
7.5	21.0	–

12 more lines

Line	Over	Under
0.75	1.01	8.65
1	1.02	8.00
1.25	1.13	4.50
1.75	1.35	2.85
2	1.44	2.52
2.25	1.67	2.04
2.75	2.14	1.61
3	2.56	1.42
3.25	2.89	1.34
3.75	4.01	1.17
4	5.60	1.08
4.25	6.00	1.06

Asian handicap

Line	Home	Away
-0.75	2.48	1.46
-0.5	2.10	1.68
-0.25	1.84	1.87
0	1.55	2.30
+0.25	1.40	2.68
+0.5	1.34	3.10

11 more lines

Line	Home	Away
-2.25	8.70	1.01
-2	8.30	1.01
-1.75	5.43	1.11
-1.5	4.13	1.18
-1.25	3.72	1.22
-1	3.27	1.28
+0.75	1.20	3.93
+1	1.08	6.00
+1.25	1.07	6.50
+1.5	1.06	7.00
+1.75	1.01	8.50

Next Primera División RFEF - Group 1 matches

1 Nov	Barakaldo – Pontevedra
1 Nov	CD Coria – Arenas Getxo
1 Nov	UD Ourense – Cultural Leonesa
1 Nov	Zamora – Deportivo La Coruña II
1 Nov	Extremadura 1924 – Unionistas de Salamanca

All Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixtures and the table

Latest Primera División RFEF - Group 1 results

25 Oct	Mérida AD 0-0 CD Coria
24 Oct	Cultural Leonesa 1-2 Pontevedra
24 Oct	Real Avilés 1-3 UD Logroñés
24 Oct	Ponferradina 0-0 Barakaldo
24 Oct	Cacereño 1-0 Zamora
24 Oct	Unionistas de Salamanca 2-1 Athletic Club II